Japan Elections: Prime Minister's Majority Threatened

Photo: Yuichi Yamazaki Agence France-Presse Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, center, on the campaign trail after a speech in Tokyo.

Tomohiro Osaki – Agence France-Presse and Mathias Cena – Agence France-Presse in Tokyo

Published at 18:43

• Asia

Polls opened Sunday in Japan for what are expected to be tough legislative elections for the party of the new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who according to opinion polls risks losing his majority in parliament.

Mr. Ishiba, 67, himself called the early vote shortly after becoming prime minister on October 1, hoping to benefit from a state of grace with voters to consolidate his power.

But his conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), embroiled in a “slush fund” scandal, could struggle with its coalition partner Komeito (center right) to obtain an absolute majority – 233 seats out of 465 – in the lower house of parliament, according to several polls.

Such a result would be almost unprecedented in the history of the LDP, which has managed to stay in power for almost all of its 69 years of existence.

Shigeru Ishiba assured Saturday at a campaign rally in Tokyo that the LDP wanted to “start over on new bases as a fair, just and sincere party.”

The leader promised voters “a new Japan”, hoping to implement his program of strengthening security and defense, of increasing support for low-income households and revitalization of the Japanese countryside.

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“Proud” Party

But the LDP is struggling to turn the page on its fundraising scandal, which had already contributed to the unpopularity of the previous prime minister, Fumio Kishida.

While Shigeru Ishiba had pledged not to support the campaign of the incriminated members, the Asahi daily reported that the LDP had paid 20 million yen (CAD$200,000) to the local branches led by these officials, provoking fury among the opposition and increasing doubts about the outcome of Sunday's vote.

Hitomi Hisano, a 69-year-old undecided voter, told AFP in Tokyo on Saturday that the scandal would be a major factor in his vote.

“The LDP has been in power for too long” and has become “proud,” he said. “So part of me wants to punish them. But “there are no other parties that are reliable enough,” he said. »

Shigeru Ishiba has also been criticized for backtracking on several issues since his election, such as allowing married couples to not have the same surname, or higher taxes on capital gains.

According to local media reports, Mr. Ishiba could leave his post immediately in the event of an election defeat in order to take responsibility for it, and would then become the shortest-serving prime minister in the country since the end of World War II.

The record is currently held by Naruhiko Higashikuni, who served 54 days in office in 1945. Mr. Ishiba is on his 26th day in office on Sunday.

Opposition divided

The political uncertainty caused by a possible electoral defeat of the LDP could in particular panic the financial markets, unaccustomed to this scenario, analysts predict.

Depending on the scale of the defeat, strategist Masahiro Ichikawa of Sumitomo Mitsui DS estimates that the Tokyo Stock Exchange risks “falling considerably”.

Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, head of the Constitutional Democratic Party (PDC), the main parliamentary opposition force, criticized on Saturday “the LDP's policy of quickly implementing measures for those who give them a lot of money”.

“A majority of Japanese people trust Mr. Noda,” whose positioning “is not so different from that of the LDP. He is fundamentally a conservative, with very pragmatic policies,” said Masato Kamikubo, a professor of political science at Ritsumeikan University.

But a victory for the PDC is nevertheless “difficult because the opposition is very divided,” he told AFP.

A total of 1,344 candidates are running in the country on Sunday, among whom a small proportion of women — 23.4 percent — is nevertheless a record in a country marked by strong gender inequality.