Kamala Harris: assured to be the Democratic candidate, running mate, polls… An ideal start to the campaign

By collecting the online vote of more than half of Democratic delegates, Kamala Harris is assured of being invested by the party in the race for the White House. Now, she must announce the name of her new vice president.

In addition to the significant support of the Clintons, Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris has just obtained the support of more than half of the Democratic delegates even before the end of voting, this Monday, August 5, 2024. This online vote therefore ensures that she will be the Democratic Party candidate for the next American presidential election against Donald Trump. The main interested party said she was “honored” to have exceeded this threshold before the closing of the vote. As a reminder, the nomination convention will take place in mid-August, in Chicago for the Democrats.

Now, it's time to choose Kamala Harris' running mate for the Democratic camp. As Le Monde points out: “The running mate cannot be a woman or of color. In short, it must be a white man so as not to scare the moderate American electorate.” The name of the chosen one could be revealed as early as Monday. Several names are already circulating, starting with the governor of the key state 51-year-old Pennsylvania senator Josh Shapiro. Former astronaut turned Arizona senator Mark Kelly is also mentioned, as is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear also enter the discussion.

What do the polls say?

Now, Democrats have their eyes fixed on the results of the polls. And those carried out after Joe Biden's withdrawal show real momentum for Kamala Harris. The Quinnipiac survey of July 22nd gives her 47% against 49% for Donald Trump. The Morning Consult survey of July 22nd gives voting intentions of the order of 45% for the Democrat and 47% for the Republican, but important element to note: Kamala Harris was six points behind until then. And according to the latest Morning Consult poll of July 29th, Kamala Harris is now in the lead in voting intentions with 47% against 46% for the Republican. This is the first time that the Democratic candidate has been given the lead, while she has not yet been officially invested by the party as the official replacement for Joe Biden.

US Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for the November 5 presidential election. She is assured of the support of more than 2,500 party delegates, significantly more than the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. However, she will not be officially designated until August 19 and the formal counting of the delegates' votes.

Launched in the race for the White House only 4 months before the election, she has especially become a few days after the withdrawal of Joe Biden – who asked all Democrats to support her – the natural contender of her camp. Several liberal bigwigs, perceived as potential rivals, have also pledged allegiance to her. It must be said that the express campaign that is announced for her is urging her camp to come together.

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But the poll trend is clearly in favor of Kamala Harris. Compared to Joe Biden's candidacy, she does better in all categories of voters: black Americans, Latin Americans, WASPs. She records a net gain among male voters and among independent voters. She also gains 7 points among the least educated voters. According to this poll, moreover, Biden's withdrawal seems to have aroused introspection among some Republican voters: 27% believe Trump should be replaced as the Republican candidate, a figure that is on the rise.

As a reminder, the American election is played out state by state, with each state giving candidates a share of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to having a vision of the probable results of this American presidential election. And it is on this ground that that Democrats can have some hope: in the decisive states, the swing states that can swing the election, Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden, according to the New York Times. She is notably given the lead in the very strategic state of Virginia and is on par in Pennsylvania. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily:

His age and his background as many assets

The central question remains: can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump, with a convinced and even stronger electorate? by the consequences and the combative image displayed after the assassination attempt on July 13 last year. Butler in Pennsylvania? The American billionaire's team has already prepares its weapons against Kamala Harris: management of immigration, results in California where Kamala Harris wasé prosecutor, personality and unflattering nickname (“Laughing Kamala”, to mock her outbursts of laughter, considered to be little sign of seriousness)… The arguments are already there; ready.

&Conversely, Kamala Harris has several aces up her sleeve to counter Donald Trump and turn the campaign around. Her personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of this. "I am empirical proof of the promise of America," she regularly explains, she is the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to be elected district attorney of San Francisco, before becoming California's attorney general from 2011 to 2018. 2017.
Her probity with her pedigree as a prosecutor facing a Republican candidate already convicted by the courts and still being prosecuted in several cases are announced as campaign arguments like her energy already demonstrated in the Senate when she appeared as one of the faces of the opposition… Donald Trump during the Republican tycoon's term.

His energy but also his youth could end up seducing the Democratic camp. At 59, the possible candidacy of Kamala Harris would send the announced duel between the two seniors Biden-Trump, aged 81 and 78 respectively, to oblivion. Enough to further mobilize the Democratic electorate? In polls published in recent days, while a possible withdrawal of Joe Biden was already causing Headlines, in the event of a duel between Trump and Kamala Harris, the gap was only two points in favor of the Republican candidate. An insufficient margin for Trump before possible debates and speeches by his possible future opponent.