Kamala Harris' defeat, or the failure of the Democratic strategy

Photo: Brendan Smialowski Agence France-Presse Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at Howard University in Washington, D.C., the day after the U.S. election, Nov. 6, 2024.

Mathieu Carbasse

Published at 0h00

• United States

“When we fight we win” was the refrain of Democratic activists throughout the campaign. Given Tuesday night's election results and the red wave that swept across the United States, there was no real fight. And even less victory.

Propelled into the arena three months before the presidential election, Kamala Harris was unable to resist her opponent's belligerent strategy. And this was despite the fact that she had managed to rekindle a certain fervor following Joe Biden's withdrawal in July.

For Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at the Université du Québec à Montréal, the Democratic Party’s main strategic error was precisely to have chosen to focus its campaign “first and foremost” on attacks against Donald Trump, rather than relying on Kamala Harris’ proposals.

“What voters wanted to know was what she was going to do once she got to the White House,” he summarized in an interview with Devoir.

While Trump’s message was relatively simple, which the Republican leader was able to repeat endlessly for months, Harris’ positions did not always seem very clear to an increasingly polarized electorate.

“We had the impression that Ms. Harris was searching for herself,” explains John Parisella, a fellow at the Centre for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal.

“When she expressed her positions, it wasn't necessarily easy to understand. It gave the impression of a lot of words for little precision. That worked against her.”

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A ball and chain named Joe Biden

Another reason for Kamala Harris' defeat is the late withdrawal of Joe Biden, whom the Democratic candidate dragged around like a ball and chain.

“The problem is not whether Biden waited too long to leave. The problem is that the establishment of the Democratic Party pretended for months that everything was fine, that there was no problem,” explains Rafael Jacob.

“The Democrats were unpopular and the Biden administration had a 40% approval rating. In addition, they were lagging behind on two major issues that dominated the debates: the economy — in fact, inflation — and immigration,” summarizes John Parisella.

According to him, the absence of primaries also harmed the Democratic candidate, who did not have the opportunity to create a connection with American voters.

Lack of grassroots mobilization

According to “the latest final counts, particularly in the West, Kamala Harris currently has 14 million fewer votes than Biden obtained in 2020. That’s quite remarkable,” says Julien Tourreille, researcher in residence at the Chair’s Observatory on the United States Raoul-Dandurand of the University of Quebec in Montreal.

For the political scientist, the failure of the Democratic Party is therefore also due to the lack of mobilization of the traditional base which has not succeeded in encouraging people to vote.

“One of the arguments that were put forward to encourage Biden to withdraw was the fear that he would not mobilize the electorate. All things considered, Kamala Harris did not succeed in doing so,” he says.

Mr. Tourreille also believes that Ms. Harris' defeat is a failure of the Democrats' strategy in their desire to convince different electorates that they are best placed to defend their interests.

This is the case for Hispanics or Blacks. This is also the case for Asians, whose support for Democrats has declined considerably since 2020.

“It was Asians who deserted the Democratic camp the most. They went from 70% support to 56%,” says Julien Tourreille.

The same goes for women, whom the Democratic candidate did not manage to convince more than usual.

“We cannot say that women were “over-mobilized” for a woman. Biden had obtained 55% of the women's vote, Harris 54%. This time, we can say that women voted less for a woman. »

What future for the Democratic Party??

The Democratic Party will have to examine its conscience, according to the experts with whom Le Devoir spoke.

With the midterm elections in their sights, two pieces of good news are nevertheless coming to the Democrats, believes Rafael Jacob.

“One, they have a president coming back who is historically unpopular. So there will be no honeymoon for Trump this time. Trump comes to power with half the country against him. That's good for the Democrats,” the researcher says.

“And then the Democrats have a number of very talented young politicians waiting in the wings, like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.”