Kamala Harris: Polls, programs… Her electorate is eroding and the results are tightening

Less than two weeks before the American presidential election, Kamala Harris continues to campaign by trying to remobilize the African-American and Latino electorate, some of which are shifting toward Donald Trump. She also wants to convince undecided and moderate Republicans. She must assert herself in the swing states to win the election.

Kamala Harris is entering the final stretch of the US presidential campaign and is continuing a fierce fight against Donald Trump ahead of the election scheduled for November 5. But with just two weeks to go before the election, the presidential election result is shaping up to be one of the closest in US history. The Democratic candidate, officially sworn in in August to replace Joe Biden, appears at the top of the national poll results with a few tenths of a point or two points ahead at most according to the compilation of the latest polls carried out by 270towin. A very relative lead that could be reversed by the results of the polls in each state. 

The current vice president has to deal with the Republican candidate's many criticisms and attacks, which are not always founded. Donald Trump has repeatedly tried to discredit Kamala Harris on the mental health front by calling her “crazy” and other such attacks. He has also invited these voters to join him and campaign against the Democrat by using filthy terms against her: “You are a shitty vice president, the worst vice president, Kamala, you are fired. “Get out of here, get lost,” he said at a rally in Pennsylvania. But the Democratic candidate is hitting back and attacking Donald Trump on the same ground: she requested a medical report on her rival's health after he made one of hers public. She is reusing the Republican's arguments about old age, even though Donald Trump is now the oldest candidate in the nearly 80 years old when Kamala Harris just celebrated her 60th birthday on Sunday, October 20. In the game of verbal jousting, Kamala Harris proved to be formidable and even won the only debate between the two candidates for the White House.

Since entering the race for the American presidency, Kamala Harris has come out on top in most national polls. A trend that has been reversing since mid-October, just two weeks before the election. The results are more than close in the polls conducted in each state, particularly in the seven “swing states” which are expected to be decisive for the election. According to the American voting system, each state won guarantees a certain number of votes in the 538 electors who vote to elect the American president and the "swing states" capable of switching from one camp to the other over the course of the elections will play a key role.

Kamala Harris held the lead in the polls by state in the majority of swing states with a 0.5 to 4 point lead, but since mid-October the balance has changed and the Democratic candidate has fallen back, giving Donald Trump the opportunity to take the lead. But the results by state have not yet stabilized, with less than a point separating the two candidates in the seven swing states. Here are the ten or so states to follow: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, but also to a lesser extent Florida, New Mexico and Minnesota.

Kamala Harris is basing part of her campaign on selected points from her program. The Democratic candidate has made the defense of purchasing power for the middle classes her hobby horse along with abortion rights, always taking care to distinguish herself from Donald Trump's policy. But several political commentators criticize her for remaining on the surface by citing flagship measures without tackling the substance of certain issues.

• Economy: Kamala Harris promises to defend the purchasing power of Americans who are suffering from inflation and tensions in the employment and real estate sectors. She claims to want to “give money back to middle- and working-class families” while Donald Trump is fighting “for billionaires and big business”. Among her strong measures: a birth tax credit, assistance for first-time buyers to housing, assistance for business creation, price controls on basic necessities and medicines. She sets the goal of reducing inflation by 3%.
• Immigration: the Democrat plays the balancing act by being firm to attract the moderate right, but not too hard to scare away the left, but she has announced a hardening of immigration policy involving “consequences” for illegal migrants and investments in physical barriers to the border with Mexico.
• International : Kamala Harris reaffirms US support for Ukraine after Russian invasion. As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, she reiterates her commitment to defending the Hebrew state and does not plan to suspend US arms deliveries, but she wants to appear less pro-Israel than Joe Biden, who condemned violence against Palestinian civilians and calls for a "ceasefire".
• Social Policy: Kamala Harris has mainly placed social issues at the heart of her campaign, starting with the right to abortion in the face of a Republican camp at the origin of the tightening of access to abortion in several states. The defense of minorities is also a central point of the campaign. The Democrat also mentions ecology to distance herself from Donald Trump without specifying specific measures to protect the environment. In the footsteps of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris says she is in favor of the inflation reduction act (IRA), a set of ecological, economic and social measures.

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Could Trump declare himself the winner before the end of the vote ? "Of course" according to Harris

Wednesday October 23.The results of the American presidential election are still difficult to predict because the polls are so tight and the question of a possible challenge to the outcome of the vote, particularly on the Republican side, arises. Kamala Harris said that it was “of course possible” that Donald Trump would claim victory before all the votes are counted on November 5. “This is someone who tried to to destroy free and fair elections, that always denies the will of the people, that incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, some of whom were killed,” the vice president of the United States said in an interview with NBC on Tuesday night. She explicitly cites the storming of the Capitol encouraged by by Donald Trump after his defeat against Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential election and just a few days away from the inauguration of the current President of the United States.

The Democratic camp, which hopes to win, is preparing for a similar act if it wins. But Kamala Harris assures that her team “will take care of election night and the following days as they come, and [that] we have the resources, the expertise and the focus” to “prevent such a scenario from happening again.” For its part, the Republican party has already accused & repeatedly the Democratic camp of trying to rig the elections, without providing tangible evidence to these statements.

After the African-Americans, Kamala Harris woos the Latino voters

Wednesday, October 23.Kamala Harris is trying to remobilize minority communities behind her candidacy. After repeatedly addressing African-American voters, particularly men, some of whom are shifting toward voting for Donald Trump, the vice president wants to send a message to Latino voters for the same reasons. She gave an interview to the Spanish-language American channel Telemundo, which is set to air this Wednesday to detail its economic program and measures that would benefit Latino households. Issues related to purchasing power are paramount for these populations and it is these motivations that push some voters towards the Republican candidate, despite the xenophobic remarks and the migration policy defended by him. But Kamala Harris defended her program and responded to criticism from her rival who called her a “socialist,” a term evoking a form of extreme left in the United States. “I am a capitalist. A pragmatic capitalist,” she retorted in an excerpt from the interview broadcast by Telemundo.

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The vice president emphasized her economic plan that aims to “stimulate new industries and develop small business owners, to allow us to increase home ownership, to allow people and their families to create intergenerational wealth.” She assured that these measures will benefit Latinos: “I know that Latino men often have a harder time access the big loans from the big banks because of relationships, factors that aren't necessarily related to their qualifications. So I'm focused on what we can do to bring more capital to community banks that will understand the community and be able to make those types of loans.” “A big part of my program is creating opportunities for people to succeed. I'm very conscious of the impact it could have on Latino men,” she added. in another excerpt.

In Michigan, Arab Vote Could “Punish” Kamala Harris

Tuesday October 22.Kamala Harris' team is concerned about the vote of a certain Michigan electorate that could swing the outcome of the vote one way or the other: that of the Arab community of Dearborn, near Detroit. The city is the first American locality in which the population is predominantly Arab, composed of Lebanese, Palestinians fleeing the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Yemenis but also Iraqis and Syrians. These voters are following with interest the evolution of the war in the Middle East, and after having voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in 2020, they could favor Donald Trump to “punish” the vice president for the American government's stated and constant support for the Hebrew state. “With nearly 250,000 Arab voters registered in the state of Michigan (out of more than 8 million voters, editor's note), our community is in a position to make him lose the election,” Lebanese lawyer Abed Hammoud estimated in Le Figaro.

The statements of the two main candidates on the war in the Middle East are also likely to weigh in the balance. However, where Kamala Harris called for “ending the war in Gaza, bringing the hostages home and ending the suffering once and for all”, Donald Trump promised to “make peace in the Middle East” without specifying how. Above all, the Democratic candidate did not specify her policy on Israel. While she had words for the civilian victims, particularly Palestinians, of the Israeli attacks in a more explicit manner than her predecessor, she did not announce a clear break or any concrete change with current policy.

How the Democrat seeks to obtain the support of Republican voters

Tuesday October 22. Kamala Harris campaigned in the “blue wall”, meaning the three swing states where the Democratic camp generally has the advantage, last night. But she didn't just address her supporters; on the contrary, the goal was to appeal to her camp but also to moderate or undecided Republican voters. And for this, she was accompanied by a choice duo: the former Republican and very conservative congresswoman Liz Cheney. During a rally in Wisconsin, the Republican, very critical of Donald Trump, showed her support for Kamala Harris and called on voters on the American right to do like her without fear of possible reprisals: “I would just like to remind people that, if you are worried, you can vote according to your conscience and never have to say a word to them.” whoever it is. Millions of Republicans will do that on November 5th.”

The duo formed by the Democrat and the Republican is surprising, because while Kamala Harris defends the right to abortion, Liz Cheney is fiercely opposed to the idea of ​​being able to terminate a pregnancy and was delighted with the questioning of the Roe vs. Wade decision last year. But the two women agree on another point: women's health. “I am troubled by the number of women who, as the vice president said, in some cases, have died, and who cannot get the medical care they need because providers are afraid of criminal prosecution,” Liz Cheney said, calling it an “untenable situation,” and one in which Kamala Harris will be more able to act than Donald Trump.

While Liz Chenez lost her seat in the House of Representatives after opposing Donald Trump, she remains an influential figure among voters, and her words could push voters to to go for Kamala Harris, even if it is only a minority share, it could be enough to make the difference in certain key states.

Harris is counting on the support of African-American stars to win back her electorate

Monday October 21.Kamala Harris blew out her 60 candles this Sunday, October 20. A birthday that she celebrated just two weeks before the election that could give her the keys to the White House and that she spent campaigning. The Democratic candidate was still wished a happy birthday, or rather a happy birthday, in song and not with just anything. The African-American international star Stevie Wonder sang a little song for the vice president from a church in Georgia where Kamala Harris was campaigning. Stevie Wonder thus affirmed his support for the Democratic candidate and became the third African-American personality to take a stand in favor of the vice-president along with rapper Lizzo and R&B singer Usher.

Very celebrity endorsements, but which can weigh heavily in the presidential election. The voice of celebrities can largely influence American voters as we saw with Taylor Swift's intervention the day after the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. And with these endorsements from African-American stars, the Democrat hopes to regain the sympathy of the black electorate, especially black men, who are less likely to support Kamala Harris in 2024 (78%) than those who supported Joe Biden in 2020 (92%) according to a New York Times poll. It is for the same reason that Kamala Harris visited two churches in the Atlanta area that are primarily attended by African-American worshipers, emphasizing the values ​​of “compassion,” “respect” and “love” in the face of “Those Who Stir Up Division, Spread Fear, and Cause Chaos”.

“You're a Shitty Vice President”: Kamala Harris Responds to Donald Trump

Monday October 21 .Donald Trump has not been shy since the beginning of the campaign about attacking Kamala Harris personally or using insulting terms. But over the weekend he invited his voters to do the same and talk about the Democratic candidate using filthy expressions: “You have to tell Kamala Harris that you have had enough, that you can't take it anymore. […] You are a shitty vice president, the worst vice president, Kamala, you are fired. “Get out of here, get out of here,” he said at a rally in Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris was asked to respond to these statements in an interview with MSNBC.

And the vice president refused to stoop to the same level, preferring to denounce the behavior of her rival, which she considers shameful for a contender for the White House. “The president of the United States must set a standard, not only for our nation, but also for […] the role that our nation plays in the world,” she said, adding that the behavior of Donald Trump, a former president of the United States, “really debases the office of the presidency.” While the Republican candidate took every opportunity to pepper his speech with criticism and insults against Kamala Harris, the Democrat responded by questioning the mental health and morality of her rival. “Donald Trump should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the United States. He has not earned that right,” she argued during her interview on MSNBC.