Kamala Harris's lead in polls set to widen

Photo: LM Otero Associated Press U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Houston on July 31

Olivier Du Ruisseau

Published yesterday at 18:55 Updated yesterday at 19:15

• United States

For the first time, polls are putting Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump. In fact, the Democratic vice president is only one percentage point ahead of her Republican rival nationally, but experts believe the gap could widen further in her favor as she prepares to name her running mate by Tuesday and be sworn in as party leader at the Democratic convention in two weeks.

“There’s a real wave of excitement right now, but just because it’s a wave doesn’t mean her sudden popularity should run out of steam, at least not for now,” says Rafael Jacob, an associate researcher at the Raoul Dandurand Chair’s Observatory on the United States. With the nomination of her running mate and the Democratic convention, she has new chances to continue to shine this month, while Trump has already exhausted his electoral ammunition.

Charles-Philippe David, full professor of political science at UQAM and founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, agrees: “The current momentum should at least continue in the coming weeks.” “The Democrats avoided the worst by very quickly rallying behind Kamala Harris after Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy, guaranteeing themselves a convention under the banner of unity, as was the case for the Republicans.”

Josh Shapiro, preferred running mate ?

For now, the selection of the vice-president’s running mate promises to breathe new life into her campaign. Forced to make a very quick decision when such a process usually lasts several months, Kamala Harris should, according to many experts, choose a white man who would allow her to extend her popularity, particularly among white men in the Midwest who support Mr. Trump, and compensate for certain blind spots in her campaign.

Without daring to predict a definitive candidate, Jacob and David believe that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is emerging as one of the best options. “Like Harris, he has distinguished himself by his stated desire to win the election,” Jacob said. “He is also moving away from more left-leaning positions held by some Democrats that could make him a target for criticism from Republicans.”

1 point According to the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, Kamala Harris has a 1 percentage point lead in national voting intentions.

The governor has also won praise for several issues in his swing state, including the rapid rebuilding of a major highway near Philadelphia after a landslide in June 2023. But his past pro-Israel stance on the Jewish state’s ongoing conflict with Palestine — though more moderate now — could hurt him in the eyes of more progressive Democrats, Jacob warns.

In any case, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz are also considered the other two front-runners. “At this point,” David says, “they’re all very good potential running mates from important swing states, and Harris also has a personal decision to make, based on her compatibility with the candidates. Especially since she could still surprise us and pick someone we don’t expect.” »

This selection process has also “transformed the election campaign into a bidding war to confirm which candidate can be the most virulent critic of Donald Trump,” according to Rafael Jacob. “Tim Walz has been very vocal in this regard,” observes Charles-Philippe David, calling Republican women weird [bizarre], a phrase that has made the rounds on social media and has since been widely taken up by Democrats.”

Pivot states to watch

Many other challenges continue to mark Kamala Harris’ campaign, including “the historic unpopularity of the Democratic Party with African-American voters,” explains Mr. Jacob. “It is true that Ms. Harris is doing better than Joe Biden with these voters, but it is still not enough to slow their gradual exodus from the party. It is more white voters, particularly white women, that she has managed to rally to her cause so far, and this, to a level unprecedented in recent years for a Democratic candidate.”

And Charles-Philippe David points out that if the vice president has just obtained a one percentage point lead over Mr. Trump in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, “it is above all the voting intentions in the pivotal states that we must watch.” “Pennsylvania, whose election results are announced relatively early on election night, is particularly important, but also Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, among others. In these states, Kamala Harris is neck and neck with Donald Trump.”

“If there's one lesson Ms. Harris should learn from Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign,” Mr. David concludes, “it's that she can't take anything for granted, especially the poll numbers. »

Rafael Jacob nevertheless expects, like Mr. David, that Ms. Harris' popularity will continue to increase in the coming weeks, if only slightly . “For the next week, it remains to be seen what impact the nomination of his running mate will have in the most strategic states,” he said.

The team campaign of the Democratic candidate has already announced that the duo will begin, from Tuesday, a tour in no less than seven key states of the country, where the presidential election could be played.

Also read

• Kamala Harris officially becomes the Democratic candidate to face Donald Trump
• After two weeks of campaigning, Kamala Harris confirms her good momentum
• Donald Trump falsely questions Kamala Harris' ethnicity