Key to Kamala Harris' victory in Republican hands

Photo: Jacquelyn Martin Associated Press Lundi 21 octobre, Kamala Harris était accompagnée de la républicaine Liz Cheney lors de sa visite dans trois États clés.

Fabien Deglise

Posted at 16:33 Analysis

• United States

The blitz was noticed. In less than 10 hours, Vice President Kamala Harris visited no fewer than three key American states on Monday, accompanied by Republican Liz Cheney, daughter of Dick, a strong figure in the conservative government of George W. Bush.

In Pennsylvania, then Michigan and then Wisconsin, the Democratic candidate reiterated her concerns about the risks that Donald Trump would pose to American democracy, if he were to be re-elected.

But above all, she has continued, with the complicity of the former representative of Wyoming, an avowed Republican critical voice of Donald Trump, a campaign of seduction targeting a section of the American electorate that, in a little over ten days, could make a crucial difference in the states with a changeable mood: moderate Republicans and independents with conservative leanings who, as the election approaches, still cannot bring themselves to vote for Donald Trump.

“It's a smart bet,” summarizes political scientist David Cohen in an interview from the University of Akron in Ohio. The support of longtime Republicans like Liz Cheney, who is very open and enthusiastic in her approach, creates a permissive framework in which other Republicans, sharing the same ideas as her, could feel more comfortable defecting to the candidate of their party. »

The Democrats’ appeal did not start just this week. Since entering the race last July, Kamala Harris has continued to court these Republicans, who are disappointed or worried about Trumpism and its persistence.

Several of them also participated in her coronation at the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago this summer. There was former congressman Adam Kinzinger, who became one of Donald Trump’s bêtes noires after standing up to the populist and refusing to buy his lies about the theft of the 2020 election, in the wake of his electoral defeat. There was former White House spokesperson under Donald Trump, Stephanie Grisham, who called the former president a liar “without empathy, morality or fidelity to the truth.”

In a video, a former Republican voter from Florida, Rich Logis, even made a mea culpa, saying he had “made a serious mistake” by voting for Donald Trump in 2016. “But it’s never too late to change your mind,” he added.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

The Democratic camp’s raiding strategy, which seems to have intensified in recent days with the increase in political rallies featuring Ms. Harris and Republicans under the slogan “country before party,” is fueled by the idea that, since 2020, the group of Republicans who are fiercely opposed to Donald Trump has grown.

The populist's participation in an unprecedented insurrection launched by his followers against the seat of American legislative power is said to have contributed to this. His court convictions in a case of sexual abuse and manipulation of accounting documents to cover up an adulterous relationship, too.

Read also

• Trump and Harris neck and neck and at a fast pace two weeks before the election
• Elon Musk criticized for his million-dollar lottery for Donald Trump
• Disappointed by Democrats, Latinos increasingly opt for Trump
• Trump's vulgarities, strategy or ramblings?

Forgotten Moderates

During the Republican primary, this fringe of those dissatisfied with Donald Trump's candidacy expressed themselves massively by rallying behind Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN, who won 16% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania, 13% in Wisconsin, 23% in North Carolina, 26% in Michigan…

The vice-president's campaign team also believes that these moderate Republicans, some of whom could be troubled by the spectacle of Donald Trump's election campaign multiplying increasingly crude insults, shamefully mendacious statements and insinuations about his authoritarian and anti-democratic leanings, are currently underestimated. in opinion polls which still place the Democrat neck and neck with the Republican.

“I don’t know what percentage of that is, but there are a lot of Republicans who agree that Donald Trump is not the future of the party,” former Republican lieutenant governor of Georgia Geoff Duncan, who in 2020 found himself unwittingly at the center of an attempt by Trump and his entourage to manipulate the results of the vote in that state, summarized on NPR a few days ago. “They don’t support his activities. They don’t support his actions. But you only hear that in private, don’t you.” ? Swimming against the tide in public takes a heavy toll on your life.”

Earlier this month, the latest Siena College poll conducted for the New York Timesput a number on the support that Kamala Harris could enjoy among Republicans next November: 9% could commit to the Democrat. This is six points more than the number of Democrats saying they were ready to vote for Trump and one point more than the support actually expressed by former Donald Trump voters in favor of Joe Biden, in 2020, according to analyses at the time.

These electoral migrations, for the billionaire's campaign team, risk however being insignificant, given that the departure of disgruntled Republicans to one could be offset by the displacement of the vote of unionized workers and that of black men, traditionally Democrats, to the other.

“It’s safe to say that polling in general has been very difficult since 2020, and the only one that’s really going to matter is on November 5 [Election Day in the United States],” says political scientist David Cohen. A target that certainly guided Kamala Harris to the Fox News studios last week, from where she sought to directly convince this red electorate, the color of Republicans, ready to turn purple to avoid returning to “the years of chaos” of the former president, according to her.

In Arizona, earlier this month, she also reinforced her appeal to Republicans by promising, in the event of victory, to establish a group of bipartisan advisers at the White House to help her develop her policies. Another weight added to a fragile balance that Kamala Harris must handle with caution to woo distant voters, to bring them out of their indecision, without alienating her base.

“Sure, the embrace of anti-Trump Republicans in Kamala Harris’ campaign may be unpalatable to some voters in the Democratic base,” Cohen says. “But most of those voters also understand the tactic and will continue to support what they believe is necessary to prevent Donald Trump from being reelected.”