Lebanese Hezbollah faces 'turning point' after Nasrallah's death

Photo: Anwar Amro Agence France-Presse “Nasrallah's death represents the end of an era,” confirms political scientist Sam Heller, an analyst at the Century Foundation, seeing it as a “turning point” for Hezbollah.

Layal Abou Rahal – Agence France-Presse in Beirut, Lebanon

Published at 1:50 p.m.

• Middle East

Hezbollah is entering a new era after the assassination a month ago of its all-powerful leader, Hassan Nasrallah, but the Iran-backed movement is now facing an existential debate over the future of its military arsenal, analysts say.

Even as it reels from blows, the movement remains capable of responding with strikes deep inside Israeli territory.

For more than a year, Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire on the border, a “support front” opened by the Lebanese Islamist movement in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the Islamist movement Hamas, which has been at war with Israel since its unprecedented attack on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023.

The September 23, the latent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel turned into open war: ground operations, destructive and deadly bombings on the south, east of Lebanon, and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

And above all, a series of massive strikes, aimed at decapitating the movement’s leadership by assassinating all its top commanders, starting with Nasrallah, who was killed on September 27.

“Nasrallah’s death represents the end of an era,” confirms political scientist Sam Heller, an analyst at the Century Foundation, seeing it as a “turning point” for Hezbollah.

“He was a very charismatic leader, the organization’s main decision-maker as it gained influence in Lebanon and the region.”

His death had the effect of an earthquake in Lebanon and the region. After he took over the party in 1992, the man became Israel's public enemy number one.

Since his death, Hezbollah has still not named his successor. Once expected to take over, the head of the Executive Council, Hachem Safieddine, was killed in Israeli raids on October 4.

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“Fierce resistance”

A few days earlier, strikes targeting a meeting of the commanders of Hezbollah's elite unit killed 16 people, including their leader Ibrahim Aqil.

In more than a month, Israeli raids have left at least 1,580 dead and more than a million displaced.

Currently, a collegiate leadership is at the helm of Hezbollah. But Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati, say that communications with the party have been cut off.

And while the weakened Hezbollah has suffered a series of setbacks, it has lost none of its defiance.

On Tuesday, it claimed responsibility for a drone attack on the private residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea, in central Israel.

Despite the fighting, “the enemy has not been able to fully control” any of the border villages in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah recently said.

Israeli troops “could not advance more than two kilometers beyond the border,” a source close to the movement told AFP. They are facing “fierce resistance and are forced to retreat.”

Lebanese media, however, have reported that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is in charge of negotiating for Hezbollah, is said to be inclined to accept a ceasefire in Lebanon. But the movement has so far refused to give up escalation with Israel without the adoption of a truce in Gaza.

“Marginalization”

Despite everything, with the current chaos in Lebanon, detractors are reopening the heated debate on Hezbollah's military arsenal.

“The war cannot end before Hezbollah disarms,” ​​believes Elie Jabbour, a 27-year-old computer scientist.

“When that happens, it will then be able to integrate state institutions as a political party.”

Currently, Hezbollah is the only faction that did not lay down its arms after the civil war (1975-1990). Its arsenal surpasses even that of the Lebanese army, according to experts.

But parties are pushing to enforce UN resolutions — 1559 and 1701 — calling for the monopoly on weapons to be reserved for the state.

And while for two years Hezbollah has been blocking the election of a president, according to experts, because it has not been able to impose its candidate, calls to appoint a head of state are now increasing.

The head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Gagea, has called for “electing a president who commits to not tolerating any movement or weaponry outside the state framework.”

Sam Heller, however, hopes that “even Hezbollah’s rivals” will be “smart enough not to follow the ill-advised advice of the United States” and try to “marginalize Hezbollah politically.”

The result would be “an intra-Lebanese conflict.”

For the expert, Hezbollah “will probably have to adapt,” through negotiation or by accepting “fair terms on the ground.”

But, he says, “I don’t think this war will lead to the disarmament of Hezbollah.”