Macron and Scholz, the reunion of two leaders weakened by European challenges

Two close meetings, but almost on the sly. It is a weakened Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who meet Wednesday in Berlin, confronted at home with political crises whose conjunction risks weighing on a key moment for Europe.

The French president is going to Germany for the Berlin Global Dialogue, and will go to see the German chancellor on this occasion. A one-on-one meeting without a press conference or statement, like the previous meeting on the French side, at the beginning of September at the Rencontres d'Evian.

“For once, France and Germany are aligned, not necessarily for good reasons: the two domestic political situations mean that both leaders are weakened,” notes Paul Maurice, an expert on Franco-German relations at the French Institute of International Relations. “They are having difficulty taking initiatives and moving forward.”

It's a bit like the reunion of the “lame ducks”. Each in his own way, the two men correspond to this image from American politics of a leader who, at the end of his career, sees his capacity for action diminished.

Emmanuel Macron partly lost power during the summer legislative elections, after having dissolved the National Assembly himself. He had to appoint a Prime Minister from the ranks of the right-wing opposition, but his own centrist troops are forced to support him due to a lack of majority.

Olaf Scholz sees the fragile coalition of his social democrats with the Greens and the liberal democrats disintegrating under the growing threat of a far right that is reaping electoral gains. So much so that all camps seem to be entering the campaign for legislative elections scheduled in a year, if the government holds out until then.

– Daily relations –

“The Franco-German engine is the beating heart of Europe, it is not limited to the relationship between the president and the chancellor, which is otherwise good and constructive,” a French diplomatic source puts into perspective. “It is also and above all daily relations between governments, which work in great proximity.”

In fact, a whole network of experts is hard at work to continue to weave common perspectives.

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In this regard, the reappointment as French Minister of the Armed Forces of Sébastien Lecornu, a rare post-dissolution survivor, is seen as an important guarantee of continuity. Faced with the war in Ukraine and the need to strengthen the defense industry, he is reputed to form an effective duo with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius, more popular than his chancellor.

Several diplomats and observers also describe Macron-Scholz relations as not as bad as they are said, despite personalities at the antipodes between an extroverted French head of state and an introverted German head of government.

“The paradox is that the Evian meeting went very well,” assures Paul Maurice. According to him, the two countries are quietly making progress on issues of European competitiveness after the boost given in the spring by Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Germany.

“It is less glamorous to talk about competitiveness and the union of capital markets than to talk about major European projects”, but “that is also what is currently lacking in Europe, investment”, he adds.

In this crucial issue, however, the two members of the European engine, stranded at home, are in a weak position at the European Council table.

And they are in great disagreement on key points.

First, the customs duties imposed on Chinese electric cars, at the heart of a vote by the Twenty-Seven on Friday, which frightens Germany, whose economic and industrial model has been seriously called into question in recent years.

Then, one of the responses in Mario Draghi's report to compensate for the economic decline of the Old Continent in the face of the United States and China. The former president of the European Central Bank advocates joint loans to meet “enormous” investment needs of nearly 800 billion euros per year.

Traditionally, Germany does not want it.

“It is vital for the future of Europe, but it is insoluble because in Germany this question, the fact of not spending more than what is in the coffers, has a moral dimension”, underlines the historian Hélène Miard-Delacroix.

However, Olaf Scholz's current political situation “accentuates Berlin's withdrawal into itself”, she adds, which perhaps makes him in her eyes the weaker of the two compared to Emmanuel Macron who remains at the Elysée for another two and a half years. He keeps control of foreign policy and basically would almost have the possibility of withdrawing into Europe.

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