MHSC-Lens: why Montpellier is 85% certain to win tonight, we explain everything in figures

Le superstitieux Laurent Nicollin peut se réjouir d’affronter Lens un vendredi, un jour qui réussit particulièrement bien aux Pailladins. Midi Libre – JEAN-MICHEL MART

On Friday, anything goes: the numbers say so.

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What percentage chance does Montpellier have of winning against Lens this Friday night? ? 85%! These are the statistics that say so. If a sign were enough, the superstitious president Laurent Nicollin could legitimately say to himself that on Friday, anything goes. Because with three wins and three draws, MHSC has avoided defeat in six of its last seven Ligue 1 matches played on this day.

A statistic running over several seasons that speaks volumes in light of Hérault's performances: Montpellier has in fact only collected one more success outside of Friday in 2024-25 (19 matches, 4 wins, 3 draws).

MHSC's last six matches in L1 on Friday evening

01/17/2025: MHSC-Monaco (2-1)

05/03/2024: Toulouse-MHSC (1-2)

26.04.2024 MHSC-Nantes (1-1)

08.03.2024: Nice-MHSC (1-2)

08.12.2023: MHSC-Lens (0-0)

10.11.2023 MHSC-Nice (0-0)

Less pressure ?

Coincidence ? Luck ? Psychological advantage ? A bit of everything, certainly. But we can also say that the Pailladins may feel more comfortable opening the championship day. Like a penalty taker shooting first, the pressure of the result is less than when you have to play on Sunday knowing the result of your direct opponents for survival.

MHSC, which is on two consecutive victories and is clinging to all the branches in order to save its place in the elite, will therefore be able to draw inspiration from its “history” tonight against Lens. Hoping not to make the statistics lie, even anecdotal ones.