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Times are changing for Tesla. The world leader in electric cars, accustomed to explosive growth for more than a decade, sees its sales outlook for 2025 severely contested by Wall Street analysts. This questioning comes in a particularly delicate context, marked by the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency and a profound transformation of the company's strategy towards artificial intelligence.
Growth targets that no longer convince Wall Street
The figures speak for themselves. While Elon Musk projected spectacular growth of between 20 and 30% for 2025 last October, Wall Street analysts are painting a much less optimistic picture. Their forecasts are based on sales of 2.07 million vehicles, an increase limited to 16%. A figure that marks a sharp break with Tesla's historical growth rate, which is used to annual jumps of 40%.
This drastic revision can be explained by several factors. The election of Donald Trump and his promise to dismantle policies favorable to electric vehicles are particularly worrying the markets. The announced elimination of the $7,500 tax credit, which currently benefits two-thirds of Tesla's US sales, could deal a severe blow to the manufacturer as early as 2026.
The difficulties don't stop there. In Europe, Tesla has already suffered a 13% drop in sales in 2024. Chinese competition is intensifying, while the Cybertruck, the only new model launched since 2020, is struggling to convince with quarterly sales limited to between 9,000 and 12,000 units. Its starting price of $82,000 puts it out of reach for many potential buyers.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000The big shift toward artificial intelligence
Faced with these headwinds, Tesla is making a major transformation in its strategy. The company is now betting heavily on artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies.This reorientation is manifested through two flagship projects: the development of a fleet of autonomous robotaxis and the creation of a humanoid robot.
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For Musk, these innovations represent the future of Tesla. The CEO goes so far as to predict that the humanoid robot will become ” the greatest product ever created, in any category » and could boost the company's valuation to $25 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion currently.
Analysts, though more measured, recognize the potential of this strategy. Daniel Ives of Wedbush points out that Trump’s arrival in the White House could paradoxically accelerate the development of autonomous technologies thanks to a more relaxed regulatory environment. For Tom Narayan of RBC Capital Markets, Tesla’s future rests less on vehicle sales than on revenue generated by semi-autonomous driving software.
This transformation comes as Tesla abandons certain emblematic automobile projects. The Model 2, supposed to democratize the brand with a price of $25,000, has been shelved. An intermediate version, nicknamed the “Model 2.5,” could see the light of day this year, but the details remain vague.
- Wall Street predicts Tesla to grow 16% in 2025, well below the 20-30% announced by Musk
- The likely elimination of subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles threatens Tesla's traditional business model
- The company is betting heavily on AI and autonomous vehicles to ensure its future growth, with ambitious projects for robotaxis and humanoid robots
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