Most Canadians would vote for Kamala Harris

Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson Associated Press Kamala Harris arrives for a campaign rally Thursday night in Clarkson, Georgia

Kelly Geraldine Malone – The Canadian Press in Washington

Published and updated Oct. 25

• United States

If they had the right to vote in the United States, most Canadians would support Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 presidential election, according to a new poll.

In the Léger poll, 64 per cent of Canadian respondents said that if they could vote in their neighbours to the south, they would support Ms. Harris, while 21 per cent of respondents said they would support former President Donald Trump. Fifteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Respondents who intend to vote Conservative in the next Canadian election were split on this hypothetical question, with 45% supporting Mr. Trump, compared to 42% voting for Ms. Harris.

Canadians aged 55 and over, Quebecers and women were more likely to support Ms. Harris.

The tight race for the Oval Office is winding down, with less than two weeks to go until Election Day. The campaign has been marked by the withdrawal of President Joe Biden, the surge in support for Ms. Harris and two assassination attempts on Mr. Trump.

Canadians are clearly interested in this race, with 70 per cent of respondents to the Léger poll saying they are following the American campaign. Liberal voters and those aged 55 and over are most likely to be captivated by the saga of American politics, according to the poll.

Economic impacts

The United States is Canada’s closest neighbour and largest trading partner. More than 77% of Canadian exports go to the United States and 60% of Canada's gross domestic product comes from trade.

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Both Republicans and Democrats have protectionist policies that could impact Canada.

Mr. Trump has proposed imposing 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports — a central plank of his election platform. According to a report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, this measure would shrink the size of the economy by 0.9% to 1%, resulting in economic costs of about $30 billion per year.

Harris is also expected to follow the path set by President Biden, who retained the tariffs of the first Trump administration despite promises to roll them back. Harris would also likely maintain the Biden administration’s procurement rules, known as “Buy American.”

Harris campaigned on the grounds that she voted against the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement when she was a senator, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers and the environment.

Both Republicans and Democrats have indicated they will push for a review of the trilateral trade pact in 2026.

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Harris, the best option for Canada

According to 62% of respondents to the Léger poll, a victory by Ms. Harris would be the most favourable outcome for Canada.

Canadians who took part in the poll believe that the Democratic candidate would obtain better results than her Republican rival on all issues, in particular climate change, trade relations with Canada, immigration and the economy American.

Respondents also believe the vice president would perform better on national security and on current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Most Canadians, 65 per cent, said they are worried about potential violence and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election.

Mr. Trump has refused to publicly commit to recognizing the results of the upcoming election. He recently called the attack on January 6, 2021, when his supporters stormed the Capitol after his 2020 defeat, a “day of love.”

While most Canadians are interested in the outcome of the U.S. election, that doesn’t mean they’ll be glued to their screens on the evening of November 5.

In fact, 42 per cent of survey respondents said they will see the result but not watch on election night. Fifteen percent of participants are not interested at all.

Léger conducted its online survey of 1,562 Canadian adults between October 18 and 21. It is not possible to assign a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.