New government: while waiting for a Prime Minister, the lesson of three cohabitations

What the History of the Fifth Republic has taught us, as Emmanuel Macron continues his cycle of consultations this week to replace the overthrown government.

“To tell the truth, the hostile coalition of committees and penmen, if it sometimes annoys me, does not affect me deeply. I know that paper can bear anything and that the microphone can broadcast anything. To calm myself down, when their rancor goes beyond measure, I repeat to myself, as Corneille makes Octave say, 'What, you want us to spare you and you have spared nothing!'”

Reading this passage from Mémoires d’Espoir* (* Volume 1, “The Renewal”, 1958-1962) by Charles de Gaulle, Emmanuel Macron could be reassured. After all, wasn't he re-elected in April 2022 with a majority of 58.4% of the vote… When the General had only obtained 55.2% for his re-election in December 1964 ? And what about his successors ? Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, defeated by François Mitterrand in 1981, inaugurated what could be called “the barometer of disenchantment”.

Avoiding the left again ?

After him, François Mitterrand, then Jacques Chirac, were re-elected with 54% of the vote for the former in 1988, and 82.2% for the second in 2002 – the record of the Fifth Republic! – thanks to an anti-Le Pen senior mobilization. But both will have previously experienced impressive tumbles. Before the beneficial cohabitation that would make them popular again for posterity, both will have faced a “rejection rate” comparable to that which Macron is currently experiencing.

Which, for the latter, reassures him. Especially if we add that none of his critics are popular with the public: according to the latest CSA-C News poll (leaning to the right, it is true!), the candidate designated by the left, Lucie Castets, would only arouse 18% of fragile voting intentions, barely more than the former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, appreciated, however, by a part of the right-wing electorate, while Jordan Bardella would obtain double that.

Marine Le Pen's heir apparent would even be preparing to triumph next Wednesday in Ajaccio, where his publisher has planned a signing session for his book What I'm Looking For* (* Fayard) four days before the arrival of Pope Francis…

But all this, Macron hopes, should be swept away by the grace of Notre Dame de Paris. Of course, Pope Francis will not have deigned to disturb himself. But the ceremony, which the French president was to begin yesterday at 7 p.m. with a speech delivered, weather permitting, on the forecourt of the cathedral, was to bring together a thousand prestigious guests, including 40 heads of state and government, first and foremost the American president-elect Donald Trump.

And this, under the eyes of more than a billion television viewers. This Sunday at 10:30 a.m., the mass celebrated by 20 officiants in white robes decorated with red, green and gold flames, in the presence of 150 Bishops, was to once again put the Head of State in the spotlight. But for how long, before the appointment of a Prime Minister awakens inexorable divisions ?

The very Christian centrist mayor of Pau, François Bayrou, 72 years old, father of 6 children and grandfather of 21 grandchildren, a graduate of literature, with long experience as a Minister and elected official and a political skill that allowed him to maintain good relations with Marine Le Pen by deciding, in 2022, to grant her his signature to allow her to run for president, would he be able to broaden, thanks to the establishment of a proportional vote, a divided electorate ? Would he also be able to appease the socialist left ? A very risky bet. How, after the long presidential hesitation of 59 days which preceded the nomination of Barnier and after the latter's failure after barely three months, to try to renew the experience of a government that would not be the one chosen by the left ?

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And how can we forget that Presidents Mitterrand and Chirac, who accepted the verdict of the ballot box and each appointed, after their camp's defeat in the legislative elections, a Prime Minister from the opposing winning camp, ultimately benefited greatly from it – not only for their personal image but also for their party ? Certainly, when the two presidents experimented with cohabitation, it was during their first term. They therefore had the hope of being re-elected, which is not the case for Macron. But, under penalty of ending his second five-year term with the image of a lone man who wanted to impose his own will until the end, should the president not draw inspiration from the example of these two predecessors, so loved today by the French ?

Forced to work together

On Sunday, March 16, 1986, Mitterrand having been at the Elysée for almost five years, the legislative elections gave victory to the alliance of the RPR (the so-called Gaullist party) and the UDF (Giscard's party): 181 seats, plus 139! The support of the 39 elected members of Jean-Marie le Pen's National Front would not even be necessary “The right, accused the socialist Lionel Jospin that evening on Antenne 2, won thanks to a campaign based on fear and hatred”.

But the President, himself, kept quiet. The next day, we would see him, as almost every Monday, a closing day, at the St Cloud golf course with his friend André Rousselet and a young journalist. While all of Paris is buzzing with contradictory announcements after Chirac declared “We are ready to govern the country”, silence at the Elysée. At 5 p.m., finally, a press release announces that the President will address the French people at 8:30 p.m.

At the appointed time, François Mitterrand, in a navy blue suit and tricolour tie, appears. Sitting at his desk, he holds a bound book in his hand: the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. “My dear compatriots,” he begins. “A little less than five years ago, you elected me, with a large majority, President of the Republic […] Then, confirming this choice, you gave me the means to implement the program that I had proposed to you by sending a left-wing majority to the National Assembly. Today, by your will, this majority has changed […] I respect this impatience, knowing that after impatience will come other springs. I will therefore appoint a government that will be the expression of the new national majority”.

The very next day, Tuesday March 18, he receives Chirac “Well,” he said to him once the double doors of the presidential office had closed, “you ran a good campaign…” At 5 p.m. the day after tomorrow, after the press announced “Fourth day without a government! The Franc in free fall!”, Chirac was appointed. “I appreciate this honour, he declared […] I set to work with ardour for a free, voluntary and imaginative France”.

This first cohabitation, sometimes amiable, most often trying for the Prime Minister when the President supported high school students against a reform project or received striking railway workers at Fort Brégançon, would end in 1988 with the re-election of Mitterrand.

A second will follow, from 1993 to 1995: this time with Edouard Balladur, a “friend” that Chirac, after a new legislative victory, will send to Matignon in his place. It will be courteous, even if Mitterrand, tired, will have to be careful to prevent Balladur from encroaching on his powers. The third will be provoked by a Chirac finally elected president.. With the support, behind the scenes, of Mitterrand himself!

In 1997, at the Elysée for two years, he will decide, for fear of a victory of the left in the next legislative elections, to rush the deadlines: by decreeing the dissolution of the National Assembly. Result: a victory for the plural left and the installation at Matignon, for five years, of the socialist Lionel Jospin… Before the 2002 presidential election swept the latter away and
allowed Chirac to be re-elected.

Were these three cohabitations, as was announced each time, a disaster for France? ? Not sure. They sometimes avoided measures that would have worsened the fracture. They forced elected officials from opposing sides to work together. Emmanuel Macron should reread their history.

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