New plebiscite expected for Paul Kagame during the presidential election in Rwanda

Photo: Luis Tato Agence France-Presse A man walks past a Paul Kagame election poster on Thursday in Kigali.

Simon Valmary – Agence France-Presse in Kigali

Published at 11:21 a.m.

• Africa

Rwanda holds its presidential election on Monday, billed as a remake of the 2017 plebiscite, won with more than 98% of the vote by the leader of the State Paul Kagame, who has ruled the country with an iron fist for 30 years.

Aged 66, Paul Kagame will be opposed to the same two adversaries as Seven years ago: Franck Habineza, leader of the only authorized opposition party (the Green Democratic Party), and the independent Philippe Mpayimana. The two men then obtained 0.48% and 0.73% of the votes respectively.

He was the architect of the spectacular economic recovery of the country, bloodless after the genocide of the Tutsis in 1994 and today presented by certain Western and African leaders as a model of development.

< p>Its solid growth (7.2% on average between 2012 and 2022) was accompanied by the development of infrastructure (roads, hospitals, etc.) enabling socio-economic progress.

But his regime is also criticized for its role in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo — where its army is accused by the UN of fighting alongside M23 rebels — and its repression of dissident voices.

Several opposition figures (Victoire Ingabire, Bernard Ntaganda) did not have the opportunity to present themselves, due to past convictions. The courts rejected their requests to have their civil rights restored.

The electoral commission also invalidated the candidacy of another anti-Kagame voice, Diane Rwigara, due to non-compliant documents. She had already been excluded from the last presidential election, accused of falsifying documents and arrested before being cleared by the courts in 2018.

In total, 9.01 million voters are registered for this election, which will for the first time be coupled with the legislative elections to renew the Parliament dominated by Paul Kagame's party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (FPR).

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< h2 class="h2-intertitre">“President forever”

This year again, the imbalance between the strong man of the country since the end of the genocide Tutsis in 1994 and their opponents were vocal during the three weeks of campaign.

Pennants on cars, flags, posters and banners on the side of the roads: the RPF machine deployed its red, white, blue colors and slogans “Tora Kagame Paul” (“Vote Paul Kagame”) and “PK24” (for “Paul Kagame 2024”).

The head of state's giant rallies attract tens of thousands of people, flooded with t-shirts and caps glorifying the FPR and “PK”, while its rivals struggle to bring together a hundred people – most of them coming as curious people.

At a gathering of Frank Habineza in the Eastern Province, Béatrice Mpawenimana explains that she came “to listen to what he says”. “But I will vote for Paul Kagame,” says this 30-year-old mother: “He gave us women a voice, he brought us roads, hospitals… I want him to remain president forever . »

In this landlocked country in the Great Lakes region, 65% of the population is under 30 and has only known Mr. Kagame as leader.

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“Formality”

Mr. Kagame has been Rwanda's strong man since he overthrew the extremist Hutu government in July 1994 with the RPF rebellion, putting an end to the genocide which left, according to the UN, 800,000 dead, mainly among the minority. tutsie.

First vice-president and minister of Defense, but de facto leader of the country, Paul Kagame has officially been its president since 2000, elected by Parliament after the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu, then three times by universal suffrage with a minimum by 93% of votes (95.05% in 2003, 93.08% in 2010, 98.79% in 2017).

“The ruling party, the FPR is very popular across the country, that’s undeniable. The election is like a formality. There is no real opponent facing Kagame,” said Rwandan constitutional lawyer and political analyst Louis Gitinywa.

Amnesty International denounced in a recent press release the “severe restrictions” on the rights of the opposition, as well as “threats, arbitrary detentions, trumped-up charges, murders and enforced disappearances.”

After reaching the limit of two seven-year terms, the leader was able to run in 2017 thanks to a controversial constitutional revision in 2015 establishing the five-year term — maintaining a maximum of two mandates.

This modification aroused strong criticism, because it reset Paul Kagame's number of mandates to zero and also authorized him to run for a transitional seven-year term in 2017-2024.

This reform therefore allows him, in the event of re-election, to remain in power until 2034.