No matter the outcome of the presidential election, China will remain a target of the United States

Photo: Peter Parks Agence France-Presse A container ship docking at the Kwai Chung container terminal in Hong Kong, October 22, 2024

Peter Catterall – Agence France-Presse in Beijing

Published at 14:44

• United States

While the outcome of the US presidential election is uncertain, analysts say the consequences will be the same for China: more tariffs, tensions and a trade war that shows no sign of abating.

Americans vote on November 5 to decide between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who are neck and neck in the polls.

While many foreign capitals hope to avoid a return to the tumult and unpredictability that characterized Mr. Trump’s term, Beijing appears resigned to continuing trade disputes with Washington. Whoever wins.

Because both candidates, riding the wave of anti-Chinese sentiment in the American political class, have promised to toughen their stance on China, the world's second largest economy and an important trading partner of the United States.

Their goal: for America to “win” what they present as a competition between great powers.

“A Harris administration would use a scalpel, a Trump administration a hammer,” metaphorically puts Thibault Denamiel, a researcher at the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

China never comments on other countries’ election campaigns, saying it does not want to interfere in their internal affairs. But it objects to being designated as an adversary in campaign themes.

During his term (2017-2021), Donald Trump had launched a virulent trade war with Beijing.

He had imposed colossal customs duties on Chinese products, in the name of combating alleged unfair Chinese practices, such as the theft of American technology or the manipulation of its currency.

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“At the “trash”

Tensions have continued with Joe Biden and relations are at their lowest in decades.

Washington's imposition of new, very high tariffs on electric cars, their batteries and Chinese solar cells is not helping matters.

Neither Trump nor Harris are likely to reverse this trend.

“The United States used to be the champion of free trade” but “threw it into the trash,” Wang Dong, a professor at Peking University's School of International Studies, told AFP.

Kamala Harris' campaign has said it will “ensure that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century,” arguing that the Democratic candidate has always “opposed China's unfair economic practices.”

Donald Trump, for his part, built his popularity on the claim that foreign countries, including China, are taking advantage of the United States.

The former president is now proposing tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports — and 60 percent on products Chinese.

“A surge in protectionism after the US election could lead to a major reshaping of global trade,” Adam Slater, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.

Donald Trump’s tariff policy “could reduce Sino-US trade by 70% and lead to the disappearance or diversion of hundreds of billions of dollars in trade,” he said.

Trump the negotiator

In contrast, a Harris administration could take a “more strategic and selective approach” to tariffs, Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a US think tank, told AFP.

Donald Trump’s proposal could hit $500 billion worth of Chinese imports, PineBridge Investments has calculated, saying the candidate could use the tariffs as a “negotiating tool.”

The tycoon regularly presents himself as a master negotiator who has built personal relationships with some foreign leaders of authoritarian countries.

In China, some netizens believe that Donald Trump may be eager to improve relations.

“It will be interesting to see,” wrote one user on the social networking site Weibo, who said the Republican candidate would come to the negotiating table after he sees that his tariffs have caused an “economic crisis” in the United States.

Conversely, at a recent conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing, Yan Xuetong, a political scientist specializing in international relations, said he expected relations to deteriorate if Kamala Harris were elected.

“Harris is more interested in maintaining American dominance than Trump,” he said.

“If Harris wins, Sino-American political tensions […] will worsen,” he said.