“Not even crumbs”: disappointed with the negotiations on pensions and the budget, will the PS deputies vote for the motion of censure ?

The French government finds itself under threat of a motion of censure, with the socialists, disappointed by centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou's announcements on pensions and the budget, urging him to continue negotiating to avoid such a blow.

“The minimum condition that we were asking for (in order not to censure the government) is no longer met”, said socialist MP Arthur Delaporte on Wednesday.

During his general policy speech before the National Assembly the day before, Mr. Bayrou, appointed in mid-December, dampened the hopes of the socialists by announcing not a suspension of the contested pension reform, but a simple “restart”.

“We do not see how we do not censor”, stressed the spokesperson for the socialist group in the Assembly, who “expects an extremely clear response from the Prime Minister”.

The latter will provide the details to the Senate in the afternoon, which will allow the socialists to have “every reason to be reassured“, said government spokeswoman Sophie Primas after the Council of Ministers.

The 66 PS elected representatives must meet on Wednesday to decide on their position on the motion of censure filed by their left-wing allies, led by the radical left party LFI (La France Insoumise).

“Not even crumbs”

Mr. Bayrou, 73, must navigate the fragmented political scene resulting from the early legislative elections organized after the surprise dissolution of the Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron in June. The chamber is fractured into three blocs (left-wing alliance/Macronists and centrists/far right); none of them have an absolute majority.

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The Prime Minister is trying to avoid suffering the same fate as his conservative predecessor Michel Barnier, whose government was overthrown after three months by an alliance of left-wing and far-right MPs.

While Mr Barnier had tried in vain to obtain a commitment of “no censorship” from the far right, François Bayrou is banking on the socialists.

He had launched intense negotiations with them focused on the pension reform, which had provoked large demonstrations in 2023, by raising the retirement age from 62 to 64.

Mr. Bayrou's speech is a “total humiliation” for the socialists, who “tried something” but “got nothing, not even crumbs“, castigated the ecologist MP Sandrine Rousseau, determined to censure a Prime Minister whom she considers “unworthy of his function”.

“What François Bayrou is proposing is a farce”, added the head of the LFI deputies Mathilde Panot, calling on the PS to “come to its senses”.

The Prime Minister's services said on Wednesday that they were “persuaded“that the social partners would reach an agreement on pension reform within the three-month deadline set by Mr. Bayrou.

“Very vague”

Mr. Bayrou also faces the challenge of passing a budget for 2025, under pressure from the opposition and the financial markets.

He announced that his government was aiming for a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2025, compared to 6.1% expected for 2024. France posted the worst performance of the Twenty-Seven with the exception of Romania, very far from the 3% ceiling authorized by EU rules.

The budget will present “a historic effort” of savings of “more than 30 billion euros”, specified on Wednesday the Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin.

Mr. Bayrou must perform a balancing act to try to wrest a form of neutrality from the moderate left, without alienating its supporters.

On the right, the strongman of the Les Républicains (LR) party, Laurent Wauquiez, considered that Mr. Bayrou's project “remains very vague”, despite “good intentions”.

Even in MoDem, Mr. Bayrou's party, the leader of the deputies Marc Fesneau recognized that his speech “can give the impression (of being) too much in generalities”. But, “the important thing is to try to find a method”.