Number of victims, unexplained divergent trajectory… what we know about the crash of a passenger plane in Kazakhstan

This Wednesday, December 25, 2024, a plane from the airline Azerbaijan Airlines crashed with 67 people on board in western Kazakhstan.

This Wednesday, December 25, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crashed in western Kazakhstan with 67 people on board, killing 38, according to Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, quoted by the Russian agency Interfax and relayed by BFM.

A mysterious trajectory

The aircraft was flying J2-8243 from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, in Chechnya (Russia), according to Azerbaijan Airlines. However, its trajectory diverged inexplicably. According to data from the FlightRadar tool, the aircraft initially followed the planned route along the western coast of the Caspian Sea before its trajectory disappeared from radar. It was later located hundreds of kilometers from its original destination, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan.

According to FlightRadar, the aircraft was reportedly subjected to GPS jamming while flying over Grozny, which disrupted its navigation. “The aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny,”, the platform said in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “It struggled to maintain altitude for over an hour before attempting an emergency landing.”

The aircraft circled near Aktau airport before crashing violently. Footage released by Russian media shows the plane hitting the ground, followed by a massive fire. Other videos reveal charred debris, with the front of the aircraft completely destroyed.

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Survivors

There were 62 passengers and 5 crew members on board. The Kazakh Ministry of Transport said the passengers included “37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz and 16 Russians.” On the scene, 150 rescuers were mobilized to secure the area and help the victims.

The Azerbaijani Prosecutor General's Office quickly announced that 32 people had survived the crash. Among them, two children are among the survivors, now hospitalized near Aktau. “All the injured are receiving the necessary care”, assured the Kazakh Ministry of Emergency Situations. However, the condition of some survivors is considered critical.

An investigation opened

The causes of the crash remain unclear. An investigation has been opened by the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General's Office, which has sent a team of investigators to the scene of the disaster. “All possible scenarios are being examined, and technical expertise is underway,”, a spokesman for the agency said.

For its part, Kazakhstan is actively cooperating. The Kazakh Interior Ministry has opened an investigation into “violation of safety and operating rules of air transport”.

The hypotheses about the causes of the tragedy are contradictory. Initially, Azerbaijan Airlines had put forward the hypothesis of a collision with birds before withdrawing this statement. At the same time, the regional department of the Kazakh Ministry of Health spoke of a “explosion of a balloon on board”, without providing further details.

This tragedy occurs in a tense geopolitical context. Reuters recalled that the crash occurred shortly after drone strikes in southwest Russia, linked to the war in Ukraine. For the time being, no direct connection with these events has been established, but the authorities do not rule out any scenario.