Olaf Scholz enters the race for a new mandate

Unpopular German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due to be named leader of his centre-left SPD party on Monday ahead of early parliamentary elections in February, with the daunting task of avoiding a predicted debacle.

Since the withdrawal on Thursday of his only internal rival, the very popular Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, the 66-year-old chancellor has a clear path to run for a second term in this election organized after the breakup of his coalition with the Greens and the Liberals on November 6.

The leadership of the social-democratic SPD party is meeting in the middle of the day in Berlin to officially inaugurate him and call for a close ranks behind him.

The delegates will then have to validate the candidacy at a congress in January.

After the internal rivalries and turmoil of recent weeks “which certainly did not help”, SPD Secretary General Matthias Miersch called on the party on Sunday “to unite behind Scholz”.

The bet is risky for Germany's oldest party, credited with only around 15% of voting intentions in the polls.

The conservative opposition CDU/CSU won more than double that (33%), and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came ahead with 18%.

Olaf Scholz, the “face” of the failure of a government marked by perpetual internal disputes, is “probably the weakest, least suitable candidate for chancellor that the SPD has ever presented”, asserts the magazine Der Spiegel.

His coalition, in power since the end of 2021, fell apart after the dismissal of the liberal finance minister due to insurmountable differences over budgetary policy, in the midst of an industrial crisis in Europe's largest economy.

– “Chancellor of Peace” –

Unperturbed, the one nicknamed “Scholzomat” for his monotonous delivery of voice and his interminable sentences, repeats over and over again his conviction of leading his party to victory again.

He readily recalls how in 2021 he won the elections against all odds. He had then taken great advantage of the divisions in the conservative camp.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, in Berlin, Germany, on November 13, 2024 © AFP – Tobias SCHWARZ

His strategy this time: to present himself as the man of restraint in military support for Ukraine, in the hope of capitalizing on the pacifism deeply rooted among Germans since the Nazi horrors and a significant pro-Russian current of opinion.

According to a recent study by public television ARD, 61% of those questioned support his decision not to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles that can strike deep into Russian territory.

This position contradicts that taken by his main allies, the United States, France and Great Britain.

In the same vein, Olaf Scholz's recent telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin has caused some gnashing of teeth, particularly in kyiv.

In Germany, the conservative opposition accuses him of having contributed to Moscow's “propaganda” to carry out an electoral maneuver aimed at presenting himself as “chancellor of peace” before perilous elections.

In this case, the conservatives do not hide the fact that they view the chancellor's candidacy with a certain relief. The decision “is good for us”, stressed MP Mathias Middelberg, “Pistorius would have been more unpleasant for the CDU and the CSU”.

– Experience –

But Olaf Scholz, a veteran politician who was notably mayor of Hamburg (north) and vice-chancellor with the finance portfolio in Angela Merkel's last government (2005-2021), has shown several times his ability to defy predictions.

In 2021, he won by presenting himself as the true heir to the conservative chancellor. This time, he also intends to reassure with his experience in a troubled global geopolitical context plunged into the unknown by the election of Donald Trump to the White House.

Olaf Scholz is “a professional in the chancellery” who has already overcome multiple crises, believes the head of the regional government of Saarland, Anke Rehlinger, in the daily newspaper TAZ.

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