Pension reform: the return to 62 years stillborn ? Why it looks complicated

A repeal of the pension reform will be debated in the National Assembly. But a return to 62 seems almost impossible. On the other hand, other adjustments could be made.

A reform… of the pension reform ? Already ? It's possible. Now that the political situation is finally clarified with a government in place, several hot issues will finally begin to be addressed. Among them, the explosive subject of pensions. After the forced adoption of the transition from 62 to 64 years in 2023, new changes could be made in the coming months. But depending on the political groups, the ambition is not the same.

On one side, there is the National Rally and the New Popular Front. The far-right party and the left-wing coalition share a common ambition: to repeal the reform and return to 62 years. The RN has tabled a bill to this effect, which will be examined on October 31 in the National Assembly. On paper, the proposal has a good chance of passing, with the two parties having the majority absolute of the deputies. But only on paper. Because in reality, it is difficult to imagine the NFP voting for a text carried by Marine Le Pen and her ilk.

On the other hand, there is the presidential coalition, called “Ensemble”, and Les Républicains, supporting a generally right-wing government and having supported Emmanuel Macron's reform. However, it is not impossible that the pension reform will be modified in the coming months. Michel Barnier, head of government, said he wanted to “take the time to improve the reform”, while his Minister of Labor, Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, said she was in favor of “make the latest pension reform perhaps more sustainable for all and respond to the anxieties it may have generated, particularly among women.” The Prime Minister could outline the contours of his project during his general policy speech on October 1st.

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14:44 – The vote on the RN bill prevented ?

Beyond the consensus that must be reached within the National Assembly, the RN's bill is likely to come up against a major problem: time. Indeed, as it will be discussed within the party's parliamentary niche, it must be voted on during the day, at midnight at the latest. Political cunning could then come into play to thwart Marine Le Pen's plans. “We can imagine that the deputies hostile to the repeal of the 64-year rule obstructs so as not to meet the deadline. This has already happened, for example in November 2022, with a text aimed at banning bullfighting, which had been blocked under an avalanche of amendments”, anticipates Benjamin Morel, Lecturer in Public Law at the World.

09:47 – No absolute majority for the repeal of the reform

First blow for the National Rally. The deputies of the Socialist Party will not vote for the repeal of the pension reform brought by the RN to the Assembly on October 31. “We do not vote for or associate ourselves with any initiative of the National Rally” indicated the elected representatives of the party with the rose. With this choice, the RN could, at most, only collect 269 votes (cumulative votes of the RN, the Ciotti group, and Nupes outside the PS). Not enough to obtain an absolute majority. While the latter is not necessary to pass a text, it is still preferable to ensure success.

09:38 – What does the National Rally propose ?

The fate of the current pension reform could be decided on Thursday, October 31. On that day, a bill will be examined in the National Assembly: a “PPL” “aiming to restore a fairer retirement system by cancelling the latest reforms concerning the retirement age and the number of annuities. Supported by RN deputies, this text aims to return to the old retirement rules.

Marine Le Pen and her colleagues in the chamber want to re-establish the retirement age. 62 years of age from the 1955 generation (instead of 64 years of age from the 1968 generation) and return to 42 years of contribution from the 1961 generation.