Michel Barnier confirmed on Tuesday, October 1st in his general policy speech that changes could be made to the pension reform. Here are the avenues he is considering.
“Certain limitations of the law that was passed on April 15, 2023 can be corrected”: Michel Barnier's sentence is not insignificant. Far from it. Because the law of April 15, 2023, is quite simply the much-criticized pension reform. A reform passed by force, with the help of 49.3, and which a large part of the French continue to reject, just like the majority of deputies elected to the new National Assembly.
During his general policy speech on Tuesday, October 1, 2024, the new Prime Minister confirmed, as in previous interviews, that he was open to discussions to modify the reform. The Matignon tenant said he was ready to discuss several themes: the issues of progressive retirement, professional wear and tear and equality between women and men. On the other hand, it is a no to a return to 62 years. "It is imperative to preserve the sustainable balance of our pay-as-you-go pension system," he said. &agrav; the platform.
Commitments that could be reduced to nothing if a pure and simple repeal of the pension reform is voted by parliamentarians. This hypothesis cannot be excluded because on October 31, the National Assembly will examine a bill from the National Rally tabled to this effect. The NFP also intends to defend a similar text, during November, in the hemicycle. It remains to be seen whether the two parties will agree on the subject. And if the text will pass all the necessary legislative stages before its final validation.
Latest updates
18:27 – Why did Michel Barnier not detail concrete changes ?
In his general policy speech, Michel Barnier only gave the broad outlines of the possible upcoming changes to the pension reform. Nothing concrete, no details came out of the Prime Minister's mouth. The general policy speech only sets out the government's broad guidelines and announces the main reforms, without details. It will then be up to the Minister of Labor, in conjunction with the unions and employers' organizations, to work on the subject. The head of government gave the themes to improve: it is up to the stakeholders to find common ground.
16:44 – What timetable for discussing pension reform ?
For now, it is the big mystery: when will the debates on changes to the pension reform take place ? The Prime Minister has not given any timetable for dealing with this subject. The subject will, however, be at the forefront on October 31 during discussions on the RN bill to purely and simply repeal the reform, as well as in November when the NFP is expected to present a similar text. The government is probably waiting for these deadlines to pass before taking a position.
15:37 – “Certain limitations” of the pension reform “can be corrected”
During his general policy speech, Michel Barnier confirmed that “certain limitations of the law that was passed on 15 April 2023 can be corrected”, thus paving the way for changes to the pension reform. For the Prime Minister, “the issues of progressive retirement, professional wear and tear, and equality between women and men deserve better than rejections. We propose that the social partners reflect on reasonable and fair adjustments to the law."
13:51 – How the RN wants to finance retirement at 62 years old ?
While the pension reform was deemed necessary by Emmanuel Macron to ensure the financial sustainability of the system, the return to 62 years would require finding new funds to ensure the payment of pensions. To this end, the RN wants to create a new tax on the purchase of company shares (capital securities) and increase the excise duty on tobacco. However, in its explanatory statement for the proposed law, the RN does not quantify the revenue that would be collected by these levers. Would they be sufficient to ensure the sustainability of the pension system ?
13:02 – No absolute majority for the repeal of the reform
In the Assembly, the RN risks running into political wars. While the absolute majority of deputies defend the return to 62, those of the Socialist Party will not vote for the repeal of the pension reform brought by the RN to the Assembly on October 31. “We are not voting for or associating ourselves with any initiative of the National Rally,” indicated the elected representatives of the party with the rose. The environmentalists and LFI do not seem inclined to either. vote for a proposal from the extreme right. With this choice, the RN could, at most, only collect 181 votes (cumulative votes from the RN, Ciotti's group, and possibly LIOT and the PCF). Not enough to obtain an absolute majority. If the latter is not necessary to pass a text, it is still preferable to ensure the blow.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,00012:44 – Vote on RN bill prevented ?
Beyond the consensus that must be reached within the National Assembly, the RN's bill is likely to come up against a major problem: time. Indeed, as it will be discussed within the party's parliamentary niche, it must be voted on during the day, at midnight at the latest. Political cunning could then come into play to thwart Marine Le Pen's plans. “We can imagine that the deputies hostile to the repeal of the 64-year rule obstructs so as not to meet the deadline. This has already happened, for example in November 2022, with a text aimed at banning bullfighting, which had been blocked under an avalanche of amendments”, anticipates Benjamin Morel, Lecturer in public law, at the World.
12:19 – Pension reform repealed on October 31 ?
And if the pension reform were to live its last hours, despite Michel Barnier's wishes ? On October 31, a bill tabled by the RN to return to a retirement age of 62 and 42 years will be debated in the National Assembly. If a majority of votes are in favor, then the text will be sent to the Senate, then ratified. by the Assembly, even in the event of disagreement between the two chambers (provided that a majority of votes are in favour each time in the Assembly). It remains to be seen whether Marine Le Pen and her fellow deputies will manage to to obtain the votes of the left, which is also campaigning for the repeal of the reform.
12:05 – Changes for women's pensions ?
Lower salaries, broken careers… Women's pensions often suffer from various professional biases and life events. While compensation has been put in place by various systems (free quarters, parental allowance), the current Minister of Labor, Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, has acknowledged that these changes may have generated “anxiety” among the women concerned. Michel Barnier, for his part, agreed that “a lot of progress” & were possible on the subject, without however defining the ambitions that it carries, giving its "confidence to the social partners to improve this law."
11:46 – Upcoming changes on the arduousness of work ?
Emmanuel Macron wanted to “go much further”, Michel Barnier spoke of “a lot of possible progress”. Better consideration of the arduousness of work in calculating retirement should be one of the new government's areas of reflection. Without predicting what the Prime Minister will decide, it could involve changing the way in which “bonus points” are awarded. to workers working outdoors, in physical jobs, at night or in less than optimal conditions (noise, temperature variations, etc.) and the “advantages” they provide, according to Les Echos. Furthermore, the issue of the four factors of arduousness removed by Emmanuel Macron (manual handling of loads, difficult postures, mechanical vibrations and chemical risks) could come back on the table, underlines Capital.
This is THE hot spot in the protest against the pension reform: the legal retirement age. Raised to 64 in 2023, compared to 62 until now, opponents of this change are still campaigning to make their voices heard. However, Michel Barnier has ruled out a possible return to the past. “We have a law that provides for a financial framework and I think that this financial framework must be preserved,” he said, thus implying that the additional years of work were intangible. A change deemed necessary in order to finance the pension system, even if it will continue to be in deficit in 2030 while the reform was supposed to make it reach balance.
11:18 – Who could be affected by a reform.. of the reform ?
Since taking office, Michel Barnier has already spoken out on pension reform. During an interview on TF1, he announced want to “open the debate on improving this law.” But on a very specific audience: the most vulnerable people. Understand: adjustments could be made, but at the margins. No major upheaval is expected according to what the Matignon tenant has suggested.
11:10 – Barnier will “clarify” his position on pension reform
This Tuesday, October 1, Michel Barnier will deliver his general policy speech to the National Assembly. On this occasion, the Prime Minister will make a “clarification” concerning the pension reform, announcedBFM TV. The main directions of the possible changes could be defined by the head of government, who has already given some clues on his wishes to improve the reform.