Poll gives Bloc lead in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun

Photo: Boris Proulx Le Devoir Louis-Philippe Sauvé, during a door-to-door campaign with Bloc Québécois MP for Salaberry—Suroît, Claude DeBellefeuille.

Michel Saba – The Canadian Press in Ottawa

Posted at 6:47 a.m.

• Canada

The Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun could well fall next Monday: a recent poll by the firm Mainstreet Research reveals that the Bloc Québécois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauvé, is ahead in voting intentions in this riding where by-elections are to be held, the result of which will have national significance.

The poll gives 29.6% of support to the Bloc Québécois. The Liberal Party of Canada candidate, Laura Palestini, comes in second with 24.1%, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate, Craig Sauvé, is favoured by 23.0% of respondents. The Conservative Party of Canada candidate, Louis Ialenti, is practically not in the race with 7.3%.

The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday by automated calls to 443 adults who live in the riding. Its margin of error is 4.7%, 19 times out of 20.

It confirms that the Bloc Québécois maintains its leading position, while another poll conducted on September 3 and 4 by the same firm gave 30.7% to the Bloc, 23.3% to the Liberals, 19.4% to the NDP and 8.1% to the Conservatives. The Canadian Press was able to consult this poll, the results of which had not been made public.

On Wednesday, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was already smelling the scent of victory. “It smells good, it smells very good,” he told volunteers as he entered the campaign office. And to journalists, he explained that he had “reached the point where we are running toward the finish line, without looking at the distance of those who may be behind.”

Photo: Adil Boukind Le Devoir New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh and NDP candidate in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, Craig Sauvé.

“Nothing is decided yet”

But in an interview with The Canadian Press, Wednesday evening, the president of Mainstreet Research, Quito Maggi, warned that “nothing is decided yet.”

The most interesting thing about the poll, he said, is the NDP’s surge in just a few days, something he attributes to Jagmeet Singh’s announcement that his party is tearing up the deal that allowed Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to hold on to power without much fear.

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He said he and his team decided to conduct the second poll after seeing the NDP’s voting intentions increase significantly on the second day of polling, the day after the announcement.

And he believes the NDP’s surge could continue. “Could they catch up to that lead?? Yes, they could.”

Conversely, Mr. Maggi believes that the Bloc made “a big mistake” and could lose some feathers after having indicated in recent days that it plans to support the Liberals in confidence votes in exchange for things that are important to it, such as increasing pensions for seniors or more powers in immigration for Quebec.

“Voters were saying to themselves: ‘We were not going to vote for the NDP because they supported the Liberals. And now our party, the Bloc, is going to support the Liberals ? Maybe I should change my vote in this context,” he illustrated.

Photo: Olivier Zuida Election poster of Laura Palestini, candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.

The hope of the LPC

As for the Liberals, their “path” to victory, he says, is based on splitting the vote and hoping that the opposition vote doesn’t “coagulate” around one of the other parties.

Getting out the vote, or efforts to encourage voters to go out and vote on election day, is an important element in elections, particularly in by-elections, when the outcome won’t change much in the composition of the House of Commons, explained political scientist Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa.

And, beyond the electoral machines, the Bloc Québécois has a bonus at the ballot box. Their hidden card is that their voters are generally older than their opponents’.

It turns out that an Elections Canada study published last year estimated that 46.7% of people aged 18 to 24 went to the polls in the last general election, compared to 74.9% of their fellow citizens aged 65 to 74.

The outcome of Monday’s race in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will be much more than a regional race, Professor Tellier insisted, as all observers will be analyzing the message the result will send.

“We want to know if the Liberals are capable of holding on to strongholds and if what happened in Toronto–St. Paul’s (where they suffered a crushing defeat in June) was it just a blip or is it a major trend that is emerging,” she summed up.

According to her, a defeat would be “dramatic” for the Liberals. As for the Bloc and the NDP, it will be a question of determining who positions themselves as the best alternative to the Liberals.

During the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9% of the vote, finishing far ahead of his opponents. The Bloc candidate received 22.1% of the vote, the NDP candidate came in third (19.4%) and the Conservative candidate obtained 7.5%. The People's Party candidate obtained 3.4% and the Green Party candidate 3.0%.