Republicans, Democrats at impasse in North Carolina

Photo: Allison Joyce Associated Press Supporters hold signs before Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak at a campaign rally on Oct. 30 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Fabien Deglise in Raleigh

Published at 0h00

• United States

“Let's let all this energy out next Tuesday!”

At the entrance to a political rally for Vice President Kamala Harris in Raleigh on Wednesday morning, Susan Murray did not dare to make a prediction about the outcome of the American presidential election. But the young retiree, proudly displaying her candidate’s name on her T-shirt, knew with much more certainty why she was there. “To defend democracy and support the prospect of seeing a woman enter the White House for the first time in the political history of the United States,” she said.

Around her, a never-ending stream of cars filled the vast parking lot of the Coastal Credit Union Music Park, from where the Democratic candidate spoke early in the afternoon to once again boost the vote in her favor in North Carolina, a state that the two camps have been fiercely contesting for several months.

Photo: Susan Walsh Associated Press Vice President Kamala Harris arrives at the Coastal Credit Union Music Park in Raleigh, where she spoke to once again boost her vote in North Carolina, a state that has been hotly contested for months.

The latest Elon University poll of 800 North Carolinians released Tuesday once again shows the two candidates neck and neck in the “Sun Belt” state with just days to go before the vote. They each have 46 percent of the vote.

In a sign of the importance of the ongoing competition, Donald Trump was at the same time haranguing his supporters 90 km further north, in the small town of Rocky Mount. The stop marked a new visit to this key state for the populist, who, like Kamala Harris, has made numerous appearances there since the spring — often, and surprisingly, in regions that were less favorable to them.

Of the 28 campaign offices that the Democrat has opened in the state, 12 are located in counties with a strong Republican concentration. The former president, for his part, has held major rallies in very Democratic corners, such as the Asheville region in the west and Greensboro in the north. On Wednesday, he spoke at the junction of Nash and Edgecombe counties, where 49% and 63% of voters respectively voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Photo: Chandan Khanna Agence France-Presse In a sign of the importance of the current competition, Donald Trump was also in North Carolina on October 30 to harangue his supporters in the small town of Rocky Mount.

“Historically, North Carolina tends to vote Republican in presidential elections,” summarizes in an interview Brandon Lenoir, a political communications specialist at High Point University, north of Charlotte. “But in 2024, the state has become rather undecided and both candidates must work hard to get as many votes as possible.”

North Carolina is therefore preparing to play a crucial role in the presidential election: its 16 electors in the electoral college could decide the future of either candidate.

The stakes are high for Donald Trump, who in 2020 won his only victory in the seven key states here — by the narrowest margin, 1.34%, of all the states he won that year nationwide. His political strategists believe that a victory in North Carolina is essential to reopen the doors of the White House to him.

Kamala Harris, for her part, is betting on reproducing Barack Obama’s “Democratic surprise” there, when he won North Carolina by a tiny 0.32% lead in 2008. And the strike force deployed is substantial: since she entered the race last July, 38,000 volunteers and 340 employees have been working for her in every corner of the state.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

“What’s happening in North Carolina right now, we haven’t seen it in a long time,” acknowledged one of the two Republican senators who represent the state in Congress, Thom Tillis, a few weeks ago in the digital pages of Semafor. “It’s a really well-orchestrated ground game by the Democrats.”

The strategy “makes a lot of sense,” summarizes in an interview the political scientist Steven Greene, of North Carolina State University. “There are a lot of Democratic voters in Republican areas, and vice versa. In a state where voting intentions are always very tight a few days before the election, candidates must find voters everywhere they can and must especially not abandon areas simply because their opponent is more popular there. »

Carrying themes

The political terrain is uncertain, but the upside is significant for Kamala Harris, who at every stop in North Carolina has reiterated her commitment to protecting and strengthening women’s abortion rights, which were undermined in 2022 by a ruling by the conservative-majority Supreme Court. The message could help her reach “women’s and young voters’ votes, particularly in suburban areas where this issue resonates a lot,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College.

Last May, Republican lawmakers in the state successfully passed a law banning abortions after 12 weeks, 12 fewer than in most progressive states, overcoming the veto of the state’s Democratic governor, Roy Cooper.

Photo: Fabien Deglise Le Devoir In a rural region of North Carolina, support for Donald Trump is also growing in the fields…

By entering the race, Kamala Harris has also strengthened the support she has among voters aged 18 to 29 compared to that of her predecessor in the race, Joe Biden, at the start of the campaign. The president had a 13-point lead over Trump in this category of voters; the vice president now enjoys a 31-point lead, according to a national poll by the Harvard Kennedy School of Government published in September.

Republicans, for their part, while multiplying the worrying messages on immigration, one of the founding themes of Donald Trump's third presidential campaign, are also swimming in controversy here after shocking revelations made by CNN in September on the Republican candidate for governor of the state.

Mark Robinson, current lieutenant governor of the state, whose candidacy was endorsed and supported by the populist, published several comments on a pornographic site in which he presented himself as a “black Nazi” wishing to own slaves. Among other things. During the campaign, the African-American also pledged to strengthen the criminalization of abortion beyond six weeks and described women seeking access to this health care as “irresponsible” and incapable “of keeping their skirts down.”

Slippage and hatred

The extremism of the Republican camp was also expressed by the voice of the candidate for the post of superintendent of public schools of the state, Michele Morrow. A local figure of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, she, in 2020, called for the televised execution of Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Last September, she wrote on X that the “+” of the acronym LGBTQ+ included “pedophilia”, a statement as erroneous as it carries hatred towards diversity.

“Democrats believe that Mark Robinson’s presence in the political field right now could slow down the momentum of some voters in favor of Republicans in other races,” Greene said. “It’s very hard to say, but if Democrats win the state narrowly, it will be possible to believe that this candidate’s presence will have cost Republicans some votes.”

From Raleigh on Wednesday, Kamala Harris reiterated her appeal to all voters, targeting undecided voters, but also more moderate Republicans, to whom she once again offered to “write a new chapter” and turn the page on the 10 years of chaos under Donald Trump, “who seeks to divide us and make us fear each other,” the vice president said.

A message that, however, leaves Mary Ray, head of the Republican electoral office in Henderson County, in the west of the state, where Democrats have increased their presence in recent weeks, unmoved. “The region is very red [the color of Republicans], and it won’t change anything. There is no reason to vote for Kamala Harris,” she said.

Photo: Fabien Deglise Le Devoir Having come to hear Kamala Harris in Raleigh, Monya Lindsey believes that there is no good reason to see the Democrat lose on November 5.

At the heart of the vice president’s political rally, Monya Lindsey, a pharmaceutical company employee, was there to “share this moment” with her daughter Marcia, “who just got called to the North Carolina bar,” she said with all the pride of a mother. “This is a historic moment that’s on the horizon,” she added. “I think there’s a strong possibility that Kamala Harris will win North Carolina and the presidency of the United States. In fact, there’s no good reason why it shouldn’t happen.”

This report was funded with support from the Transat International Journalism Fund-Le Devoir.