Results of the 2024 legislative elections: already trends on the elections, who will govern in July ?

The outcome of the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7, 2024 will determine which political parties will be responsible for governing France. Trends are already emerging.

It is an understatement to say that Emmanuel Macron surprised the French and all political personnel by announcing the dissolution of the Assembly The national election and the organization of the anticipated legislative elections, June 30 and July 7, 2024. And the result of these elections will undoubtedly be… ;nbsp;one of the most important of the Fifth Republic, given the context of political crisis in which the country finds itself: the results of these The 2024 legislation could in fact bring the far right to power, if it, alone or with allies, manages to achieve this. obtain a majority &agrav; the National Assembly.

In the event of an unfavorable result in the legislative elections, the current government would be at a loss. the opposite was dismissed and the National Rally would be charged with to form a new ministerial team. The Prime Minister would come from the ranks of the far right and Jordan Bardella has already appeared. positioned to be the one who would be named &agrav; Matignon in this scenario.

The campaign for these legislative elections which is opening is full of uncertainties, the results are not written in advance . Firstly because the political forces present are in the process of reconstitution: the left has taken action; the formation of a "new popular front", the far right attracts & she part of the LR executives and the majority of them. presidential candidate seeks to constitute a programmatic project and an alliance broader than the current one, by reaching out to part of the socialists and à part of the right reluctant to the alliance with the RN.  Each of these three blocs hopes to be able to bring together,   Following the results of the legislative elections, on July 7, a majority around their political formation.

What are the results of the polls on the legislative elections ?

The results of the 2024 legislative elections will above all be those of 577 constituencies, with different candidates in each of them. Which means that there is actually a problem. 577 ballots, sometimes with outgoing deputies or figures known to the population. It is therefore very delicate and difficult to carry out national polls to account for an election that is more local than we think. But overall trends are emerging regarding voting intentions in the first round. 

The Ifop Fiducial survey for LCI – Le Figaro and Sud Radio, carried out on June 10 and 11, gives the following results:

National gathering: 35%

Popular front: 25%

Majority presidential election: 18%

The Republicans: 9%

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Miscellaneous left: 5%

Reconquered: 4%

Various right: 1.5%

Extreme left (LO, NPA, POI): 1%

Sovereignist right (DLF): 0.5%

What are the results in terms of number of seats at the table? the outcome of legislative legislation 2024 ?

A projection in number of seats was also made. carried out this start of the week by Tonu-Harris Interactive. This pollster gives ranges and considers that it is likely that the National Rally will win more seats than its competitors, but will not be able to win. to obtain a majority absolute, necessary if he wants to govern without alliance.

© Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 RTL

How are the results of legislative elections established ?

Legislative elections in France are organized according to a single-member majority voting system. two towers. The country is divided; into 577 constituencies, each electing a deputy. &agrav; the National Assembly. When the results are announced, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the votes cast and a number of votes at least equal to 25% of registered voters. If no candidate meets these conditions, a second round is organized.

Only candidates having received at least 12.5% ​​of the votes of registered voters during the results of the first round can run in the second round. If only one candidate meets this condition, the candidate arrives. in second position is also qualified. The second round often sees strategic alliances and withdrawals between parties to maximize the chances of victory against a common opponent.

Legislative results, majority and government

The results of legislative elections determine the majority. parliamentary à the National Assembly. The party or coalition of parties with the greatest number of seats generally forms a majority. &agrav; the Assembly, which can be absolute (289 seats) or relative, and therefore orient more or less strongly the priorities of the country and the laws that will be voted on during the mandate. A majority parliamentary stability allows the government to function effectively and carry out à well his reforms. In the event of absence of a majority, absolute for a single party, majorities and therefore coalition governments can be formed.

The government is responsible to parliament, which can validate or reject it during a vote of confidence or after the tabling ;t of a motion of censure, it must therefore be in phase with this majority. exit from the polls. After the results of the legislative elections, the President of the Republic therefore generally appoints a Prime Minister, from his party in case of victory or of the majority party if another sensitivityé wins.

If the President of the Republic and the majority parliamentary belong à opposing parties, a situation of cohabitation occurs. In this case, the Prime Minister, who holds daily executive power, may have political views that diverge from those of the President, leading to tensions and compromises.