Results of the 2024 legislative elections: the shock study which gives an absolute majority

“Results of the 2024 legislative elections: the shock study which gives an absolute majority”

An opposition party can govern France: a poll on the results of the 2024 legislative elections gives for the first time a majority. absolute. The institutes provide other clear trends and scenarios.

►Find your city to consult the legislative results:   The essentials

• Three main blocs oppose each other in this campaign for the legislative elections of July 30 and 7: the left, united under the ban The era of the New Popular Front, the center parties supporting Emmanuel Macron and the far right.
• The result of these legislative elections will make it possible to establish which political party will be able to govern. Survey figures and trends are already available. explosives: a Toluna Harris poll of June 26 for M6 and Challenges gives for the first time a majority absolute to the RN and its allies with up to 305 potential deputies out of 289 needed. This is the first time since the Collaboration that the far right has been given a concrete position to govern France. Most of the surveys However, at this stage, they are less categorical and indicate that no political party is capable of having a majority. sufficient to form a government.
• The crucial element which will determine the result of these legislative elections is the postponement of votes to the 2nd round. And for this election, the intentions to create a "blockadeà the far right" melted. According to the Ipsos poll for Le Monde on June 27, if 87% of left-wing voters intend to block the RN, this is only 43% among LR voters and 62% among the & readers of Emmanuel Macron. Another survey, that of Odoxa dated June 25 for Public Sénat indicates as to she says that the share of French people who plan to vote to block the RN (41%) is less important than the share of those who plan to block the New Popular Front (47%) or the majority presidential (44%).

What results for the 2024 legislative elections ?

The results of the 2024 legislative elections will in reality be determined results from 577 constituencies, with different candidates in each of them. Which means that there is actually a problem. 577 ballots, sometimes with outgoing deputies or figures known to the population. It is therefore very delicate and difficult to carry out national polls to account for an election that is more local than we think. But overall trends are emerging regarding voting intentions in the first round.

According to the latest polls on legislative elections, the first trends are clear: the National Rally and its allies are given ; nationally around 30-35% of voting intentions, the New Popular Front around 26-30%, the majority presidential vote between 17 and 20%,  The autonomous Republicans around 7%. Then come the much more marginal lists: the various left lists around 4% and Reconquête around 3% in particular.

What r&eac;result in number of seats & the outcome of legislative legislation 2024 ?

Projections in the number of seats are also made by the pollsters, already anticipating the number of seats. the results of the 2nd round of these 2024 legislative elections. Everyone considers that it is likely that the National Rally will win more seats than its competitors , but he is not able to do so. to obtain a majority absolute, necessary if he wants to govern without alliance. Here is the latest projection, which gives estimates on the number of MPs elected by political group. It takes 289 seats to obtain a majority. absolute.

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22:30 – More than two million proxies already available éestablished

END OF LIVE – The Ministry of the Interior has assessed &agrav; very exactly 2,124,918 the number of proxies established at D-3 of the first round of legislative elections midday this Thursday. This is 5.1 times more than in previous legislative elections in 2022. If this figure can suggest greater participation, it can however also This can be explained by the fact that these elections were not planned and that, in fact, a certain number of French people had already voted. Ià planned to take advantage of the sunny days to treat themselves to a little getaway away from home during the weekends where everyone is busy. finally the elections fall.

21:32 – Online participation explodes among the French abroad

They had until 'à this Thursday to vote. Since Tuesday, the French çais à foreigners were invited to attend the event. to decide for the first round of the legislative elections. Result: if the details of the votes are not known, France Consulaire has announced on X that more than 410,000 people had voted online, a "record". "Only" 250,000 people expressed their views this way in 2022.

20:36 – The right is making slight progress & three days of voting

While the National Rally and the presidential camp are stagnating in the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll, The Republicans (without Éric Ciotti) and the various right-wing candidates are credited Its 6.5% of voting intentions, a figure showing slight progression. We note in fact an increase of 0.5 points compared to &agrav; the day before. 

19:33 – How many seats can the different camps hope for? eacute;rer ?

Always according to the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro , LCI and Sud Radio, the National Rally could obtain between 220 and 260 seats, the New Popular Front between 180 and 210 seats, the presidential camp between 75 and 110 seats. ages, Les Républicains (without Ciotti) and various right between 25 and 50 seats, the various between 6 and 10 seats, and finally the various left between 5 and 9 seats. ges. 

18:31 – What voting intentions for each camp à three days of voting ?

According to the Ifop-Fiducial survey carried out for Sud Radio, LCI and Le Figaro, the National Rally should always come out on top. Jordan Bardella's party is credited with 36% of voting intentions. Behind therefore follows the New Popular Front, with 29% of voting intentions, a slight increase compared to the previous year. the day before (+0.5%). Stable, the presidential camp is credited with 21% of voting intentions. Far behind, The Republicans (not associated with Éric Ciotti and his alliance with the RN) and the various right-wing candidates obtain 6.5% of the intentions of vote, also slightly increasing (+0.5%). Then comes Reconquête! (1.5%), various left candidates (1%), various center candidates (1%) and the far left (Worker Struggle, NPA-Revolutionaries …) (0.5%).

17:32 – The left wins half a point à three days of voting according to the Ifop-Fiducial survey

Realizedé for LCI, Sud Radio and Le Figaro, the Ifop-Fiducial poll still places the National Rally in the lead this Thursday evening. Behind him, the New Popular Front whose voting intentions are showing a slight increase. three days of voting: +0.5. According to this poll, the united left would be credited with 29% of voting intentions.

16:01 – What an online survey compiler reveals to us three days of the first round

While a poll à the other, voting intentions for this or that party differ, HuffPost has set up a poll compiler. This June 27, he estimates à 36.1% the number of French people who would be ready to move vote in favor of the National Rally on Sunday. Behind follows the New Popular Front and its 28.5%, Together with 20.4% of voting intentions, Les Républicains (7.7%), Reconquêtes! and Miscellaneous left (1.5%).

14:45 – 60% of respondents think that the RN will carry the most seats

According to an Ipsos survey publishedé Thursday June 27 and relayé by franceinfo, 60% of respondents believe that the National Rally will win the most seats in the world. the National Assembly & the outcome of the legislative elections. 20% estimate that it will reach 189 seats to benefit from a majority. absolute. Only 24% of voters believe that the New Popular Front will be the majority force in the Chamber and 16% think that the leading camp will be the majority. sidentiel will obtain the most deputies.

14:15 – 53% of LR voters fromé eacute;sapprove of the alliance of Éric Ciotti with the RN

In the aftermath of the European elections and the dissolution of the National Assembly, the president of the Republicans party, Eric Ciotti, decided to set up an alliance between his party and the National Rally for the legislative elections. According to an Ipsos study for Le Monde, this was poorly received by Republican voters, since 53% of them are disapprove of this choice (including 32% who completely disapprove). On the other hand, this alliance is mostly approved by far-right voters, 86% for RN voters and 86% for 93% for Reconquête voters!

13:45 – 67% of PS voters approve of the New Popular Front alliance

An Ipsos survey for Le Mondeshows that electoral alliances are far from unanimous. within the same political family. Thus, left-wing voters are divided over the New Popular Front (NFP). 97% of La France insoumise voters and 80% of French Communist Party voters approve of this alliance, as do 76% of environmental voters. This number goes down & 67% for voters of the Socialist Party and Place publique. LFI readers are even 71% in favor of approve "everythingà done" this alliance, while only 27% of PS voters totally approve of it. 

13:15 – Emmanuel Macron's voters turn to other candidates

"Only 57% of Emmanuel Macron's voters in the first round of the 2022 presidential election plan to vote for the Ensemble list", a explained Blanche Leridon, editorial director of the Institut Montaigne, guest of France inter, Thursday June 27. "They will go towards the New Popular Front (NFP) and they will also go a little towards the Republicans," she added. À Conversely, 80% of voters who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2022 will vote for the NFP, when 92% of Marine Le Pen's voters who voted for her in the first round in 2022, will vote for the RN in the legislative elections. 

12:35 – What topics mobilized? readers for Europeans ?

In an Ipsos survey for Le Monde, Sciences Po and franceinfo, readers were disappointed; say the three subjects they took into account the most when voting for the European elections. Purchasing power tops the list of concerns for 54% of voters, ahead of immigration (40%) and security. goods and people (26%). Next comes France's place in Europe and in the world (24%), the health system and the health system. (24%), environmental protection (23%), the level of social inequality (19%).

12:12 – An important trend for legislators: the certainty of the vote

We now know thanks to the Ipsos survey for Le Monde, Sciences Po and France Info what is the expected level of participation. 63% of French people registered on the electoral lists plan to vote this Sunday for the first round of the legislative elections. 77% of those aged 70 and over say they will vote, compared to only 48% of those aged 25-34 and 51% of those aged 18-24. 81% of so-called CSP+ pensions are ' say the most financially well-off social category ensures they go to vote too. According to this study, we also know which electorates are most mobilized for these legislative elections. These are the voters of Reconquête, the identity-based and far-right party of Eric Zemmour, who are the most numerous in the voting. want to vote (79%), in front of majority voters; presidential vote (74%) and PS voters (72%). People saying they are convinced by the RN are also 71% à say they are certain to go and vote, they are only 69% among LFI supporters and 65% among EELV supporters.

According to the Ipsos survey of June 27 2024 for Le Monde, the French are 40% & wish the victory of the National Rally à these legislative elections. 31% say they want the New Popular Front to win and 29% prefer an electoral victory for the majority coalition. presidential election. À note that the French consider à 60% that the RN will win these elections. This is a "prognosis" of victory which says nothing about their political wishes but rather about the scenario they expect. 77% of people saying they will vote are sure of their choices this Thursday, & three days of the first round of legislative elections. Which tends à make current polls a solid basis but which cannot be interpreted as a prognosis.

11 :35 – The RN electorate has progressed. in all age groups

In an article for Le Figaro, Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos France, explains that the National Rally's electorate is the closest to the entire French population. During the 2024 European elections, the far-right party made progress among all age groups compared to 2019. In 2024, 21% of RN voters were aged 70 and over, compared to 12% at the 2022 presidential election. 19% of RN voters are between 60 and 69 years old and 20% are between 50 and 59 years old. Finally, 21% of RN voters are between 35 and 49 years old, 10% are between 25 and 34 years old and 9% are between 18 and 24 years old.

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The unknown of triangulars and vote transfers to the second round

Pollsters have a lot of trouble refining their projection model for the second round because of the local nature of the 577 ballots. But another parameter complicates the task of institutes in trying to estimate the results of the second round of legislative elections: if turnout is high – it is estimated at more than 60% -, these elections will be marked by the organization of many triangular contests, probably more than a hundred. This happens when three candidates obtain at least 12.5% ​​of the votes of registered voters in the first round. But the more people vote, the lower the qualification threshold.

In the event of numerous triangulars, the results of the 2nd round of legislative elections become more and more uncertain. Mechanically it is the far right which is the most advantaged, due to the scattering of votes between the two other candidates. In the event of a competitor withdrawing "to block off" &agrav; the far right, on the other hand, is often the loser. What will the candidates involved in triangulars do? are very important for understanding the results of legislative legislation.

The projections carried out by pollsters are still very globalizing, with estimates which do not give the political weight of each political party within the three major coalitions (New Popular Front, Ensemble – Majority) presidential and Alliance LR-RN). To really take the measure of the probable results in the 2nd round of these 2024 legislative elections, we must enter a level of ;estimates by constituency.

By relying on local electoral sociology, it is possible to list constituencies considered as “unlosable”, from ;others with local configurations bringing out favorites and undecided constituencies between 2 blocks or 3 blocks. It's this work that the Swing Circos site offers in particular, which even proposes to generate the number of seats obtained per party based on several scenarios: hypotheses & nbsp;favorable à the left, the center or the RN; a scenario which relies on a systematic barrier   the far right with withdrawal of the 3rd in the event of triangular. Here is a projection by political party. The blocks identified by the pollsters are much more detailed here, with identifiable power relationships within each alliance:

In the case of a so-called “balanced” scenario, that is to say with a model that is   quot;distributes the seats of deputies in a balanced manner; between the political blocs in the event of an undecided configuration in a given constituency, the results of the 2nd round of the 2024 legislative elections would give these estimates. ;nbsp;:

• 222 députés RN
• 210 putés Popular Front
• 102 putés Majorityé presidential
• 40 putés LR and DVD
• 3 putés Miscellaneous

If the election is above all national, the results of the legislative elections will also have to be assessed on a national level. At the local level, each MP being elected in a constituency. Beyond results in each constituency, those that will emerge also in each city will give valuable lessons on the political landscape in France in 2024. Find your constituency and your city in the map and list below to consult the latest results as well as the verdict of the polls on June 30:

• Ain
• Aisne
• Allier
• Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
• Hautes-Alpes
• Alpes-Maritimes
• Ardèche
• Ardennes
• Ariège
• Dawn
• Aude
• Aveyron
• Bouches-du-Rhône
• Calvados
• Cantal
• Charente
• Charente-Maritime
• Dear
• Corrèze
• Côte-d'Or
• Côtes-d'Armor
• Hollow
• Dordogne
• Doubs
• Drôme
• Eure
• Eure-et-Loir
• Finistère
• South Corsica
• Haute-Corse
• Gard
• Haute-Garonne
• Gers
• Gironde
• Hérault
• Ille-et-Vilaine
• Indre
• Indre-et-Loire
• Isère
• Jura
• Landes
• Loir-et-Cher
• Loire
• Haute-Loire
• Loire-Atlantique
• Loiret
• Lot
• Lot-et-Garonne
• Lozère
• Maine-et-Loire
• Sleeve
• Marne
• Haute-Marne
• Mayenne
• Meurthe-et-Moselle
• Meuse
• Morbihan
• Moselle
• Nièvre
• North
• Oise
• Orne
• Pas-de-Calais
• Puy-de-Dôme
• Pyrénées-Atlantiques
• Hautes-Pyrénées
• Pyrénées-Orientales
• Bas-Rhin
• Haut-Rhin
• Rhône
• Haute-Saône
• Saône-et-Loire
• Sarthe
• Savoie
• Haute-Savoie
• Paris
• Seine-Maritime
• Seine-et-Marne
• Yvelines
• Deux-Sèvres
• Sum
• Tarn
• Tarn-et-Garonne
• Var
• Vaucluse
• Sold
• Vienna
• Haute-Vienne
• Vosges
• Yonne
• Territory of Belfort
• Essonne
• Hauts-de-Seine
• Seine-Saint-Denis
• Val-de-Marne
• Val-d'Oise
• Guadeloupe
• Martinique
• Guyana
• The Reunion
• Mayotte

• Paris
• Marseille
• Lyon
• Toulouse
• Nice
• Nantes
• Montpellier
• Strasbourg
• Bordeaux
• Lille
• Rennes
• Reims
• Le Havre
• Saint-Étienne
• Toulon
• Grenoble

• Dijon
• Angers
• Nîmes
• Villeurbanne
• Le Mans
• Aix-en-Provence
• Clermont-Ferrand
• Brest
• Turns
• Amiens
• Limoges
• Annecy
• Perpignan
• Besançon
• Metz
• Boulogne-Billancourt

All cities

These 2024 legislative elections have everything of a revenge of the 2022 elections. Why ? Of 577 d  MPs elected in the last legislative elections, 553 are up for election. new candidates. But some are in the hot seat. The composition of the National Assembly resulting from the results of June 30 and July 7 promises to be very different indeed. The current one from that established two years ago. Find the results near you with our map:

What were the results of the legislative elections two years ago? The result of the first round had placed Together! and LREM in pole position by a short head with 196 constituencies, ahead of Nupes & 187 and the RN à 109. LR was in the lead in 42 territories and UDI in only one. The candidates "Various left" (excluding Nupes) arrived in favorable ballots in 12 constituencies and the various right in 10.

During the second round of the 2022 elections, it is indeed the party of the majority. presidential election which had finally arrived in the lead, with 38.57% of the votes and 244%, ahead of Nupes à 31.60% and 127 years, the RN & 17.30% and 89% if&eges and Les Républicains à 6.98% and 61 years old. The candidates "Various left" took 22 seats, the "Various right" and "RéRegionalists" about ten each. Here is what these results gave projected on a map of France:

How are the results of legislative elections established ?

Legislative elections in France are organized according to a two-round single-member majority voting system. The country is divided into 577 constituencies, each electing one deputy to the National Assembly. When the results are announced, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the votes cast and a number of votes at least equal to 25% of registered voters. If no candidate meets these conditions, a second round is organized.

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Only candidates who have received at least 12.5% ​​of the votes of registered voters in the results of the first round may run in the second round. If only one candidate meets this condition, the candidate who came in second place is also qualified. The second round often sees strategic alliances and withdrawals between parties to maximize the chances of victory against a common opponent.

Results of legislative elections, majorities and government

The results of legislative elections determine the majority. parliamentary à the National Assembly. The party or coalition of parties with the greatest number of seats generally forms a majority. &agrav; the Assembly, which can be absolute (289 seats) or relative, and therefore orient more or less strongly the priorities of the country and the laws that will be voted on during the mandate. A majority parliamentary stability allows the government to function effectively and carry out à well its reforms. In the event of absence of a majority, absolute for a single party, majorities and therefore coalition governments can be formed.

The government is responsible to parliament, which can validate or reject it during a vote of confidence or after the tabling ;t of a motion of censure, it must therefore be in phase with this majority. exit from the polls. After the results of the legislative elections, the President of the Republic therefore generally appoints a Prime Minister, from his party in case of victory or of the majority party if another sensitivityé wins.

If the President of the Republic and the majority parliamentary belong à opposing parties, a situation of cohabitation occurs. In this case, the Prime Minister, who holds daily executive power, may have political views that diverge from those of the President, leading to tensions and compromises.