Russia is gaining ground and Ukrainian morale

Photo: Genya Savilov Agence France-Presse Former French Colonel Michel Goya, a war historian, describes a “Russian strategy of pressure everywhere, all the time, waiting for it to crack, crumble or collapse.” Pictured are Ukrainian troops during training.

Didier Lauras – Agence France-Presse

Published at 10:49 am

• Europe

The progress is limited, but constant. For several weeks, the Russian army has been advancing on several points of the Ukrainian front and nibbling away at territory, increasing doubts about kyiv's ability to reverse the trend.

President Vladimir Putin’s army has advanced 478 square kilometers (190 square miles) into Ukrainian territory since early October, its largest territorial gain in a month since the first weeks of the war, according to an AFP analysis of data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russia has been on the offensive all year,” notes Meduza, a banned and blocked Russian opposition website. “But the past week has been one of the toughest, if not the toughest, for the Ukrainian armed forces in the period.” »

Regularity

The ISW figures do not suggest any military collapse of Ukraine. But “what is more worrying is that it is a trend,” believes former French colonel Michel Goya, a war historian.

“We see an acceleration of this advance, with the feeling that we cannot stop it,” he adds, describing a “Russian strategy of pressure everywhere, all the time, waiting for it to crack, crumble or collapse.”

Moscow claims a victory almost every day. “No single location is of extraordinary importance, but overall it represents a significant success for the Russian army,” assures Alexander Khramchikhin, an independent Russian military analyst. “The Russian advance, even if not very fast, shows the increasing deterioration [of the situation] in Ukraine. »

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Firepower

Moscow has retained its artillery superiority since 2022. Subject to Western economic sanctions, it has transformed its economy into a war machine with the support of committed allies, Iran and North Korea in the lead.

“The Russian war industry produces more weapons than Ukraine receives,” estimates Alexandre Khramtchikhine, and “more munitions thanks to its industry and North Korea.”

In early 2024, the freezing of American aid by Congress considerably slowed down supplies to the Ukrainians, “while at the same time 3 million North Korean shells were arriving in Russian depots,” recalls Michel Goya.

And Moscow has developed a guidance system for bombs, which it uses “by the thousands,” he assures, also mentioning the approximately 1,600 North Korean KN-02 ballistic missiles that fell on Ukraine.

New tactical approach

Rather than conquering cities district by district, the Russian army is now playing the suffocation card. “The principle is to threaten to surround pockets that are forced to retreat,” explains Michel Goya.

“We refused to storm the towns and villages head-on, where we had to eat away at every square metre of street, every house,” agrees Alexandre Kots, a war journalist for Komsomolskaya Pravda, a popular daily newspaper in Russia.

As a result, “the enemy may be forced to withdraw its troops and do so by crossing a long corridor open to fire.”

Ukrainian mobilization tired

And gradually, the Russian advance erodes Ukrainian morale. kyiv is struggling to recruit, especially since the disorganization of its army and corruption facilitate desertions and refusals to enlist.

“To defeat an enemy is to kill hope in him. When the sacrifice of the people who die is worthless, it no longer makes sense to fight,” notes Michel Goya.

“The Zelensky government, faced with the weariness of war among the civilian population, is struggling to mobilize,” confirms a French military official on condition of anonymity.

kyiv announced on Tuesday a new mobilization of 160,000 men to replenish the ranks of the army by 85%, in particular in the face of fears of a deployment of North Korean troops.

Russian losses and Western wait-and-see attitude

Experts, however, are moderating the situation by highlighting the very heavy losses on the Russian side.

Ivan Klyszcz, from the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, emphasizes that at the current rate, Moscow “would finish taking the rest of Donbass in several months, at an extremely high cost, probably unsustainable.”

In the meantime, the West is temporizing. Volodymyr Zelensky's “victory plan,” which is supposed to put him in a strong negotiating position, is dividing his allies. And the US presidential election is bringing its share of uncertainties.

“Ukraine will soon realize that it needs a change of direction and that relying on Western partners will become a counterproductive strategy in the near future,” Ivan Klyszcz says.

The deployment of North Korean troops may create a sense of urgency among the West. But “whether this urgency will translate into promises or increased support? remains to be seen.”