Russia's military spending to explode in 2025 to continue offensive in Ukraine

Photo: Alexander Kazakov Pool via Agence France-Presse In this photo released by Russian state news agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Security Council in Moscow, September 25, 2024.

Agence France-Presse in Moscow

Published at 10:57 Updated at 17:10

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The conflict in Ukraine at all costs: the 2025 budget bill in Russia unveiled Monday foresees a 30% increase in military spending next year, confirming the Kremlin's determination to continue its offensive, despite the human and economic cost.

The publication of this text, which must be approved by the Russian Parliament in the fall before being promulgated by Vladimir Putin, comes on the day that Russia celebrates the second anniversary of the claimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions that it does not, however, fully control.

In a video released for “Reunification Day,” Vladimir Putin repeated that “all the goals set will be achieved” in Ukraine.

To this end, defense spending will reach nearly 13.5 trillion rubles in 2025, according to the bill.

The national military budget had already exploded by nearly 70% in 2024, representing this year with security investments 8.7% of GDP, according to Vladimir Putin, a first in modern Russian history.

Since 2022, the Kremlin has largely reoriented its economy towards the war effort, rapidly developing its military-industrial complex, recruiting hundreds of thousands of of employees.

The Kremlin anticipates a long conflict with Ukraine and does not seem concerned by the risks of increased dependence of its economy on military orders, at a time when inflation is around 9%, cutting into the purchasing power of Russians.

Vladimir Putin had established in mid-September “the strengthening of the country's defense capacity” and “the integration of occupied Ukrainian regions” as “priorities”.

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The sum allocated for defense will thus represent in 2025 nearly a third of federal spending and more than twice as much as “social policy” investments.

The budget dedicated to internal security, which includes the police and special services in charge in particular of repressing critics of the Kremlin, will increase to 3,460 billion rubles. (33 billion euros), representing almost 10% of the annual expenditure of the Russian state.

This combination of “Defense” and “Security” will represent approximately 40% of the budget. Not to mention many classified investments.

1.5 million soldiers

A sign that military spending is not about to decrease, Vladimir Putin signed a decree in mid-September ordering an increase of almost 15% in the number of soldiers, bringing it to 1.5 million.

One in 50 active personnel in Russia will then be in the army, which, according to Russian media, would become the second largest in the world after that of China.

To “efficiently” manage the army's accounts, where corruption remains endemic, Vladimir Putin has placed an economist, Andrei Beloussov, at the head of the Ministry of Defense since May. And many defense officials have been imprisoned.

In total, federal spending will increase to 41,500 billion rubles (around 400 billion euros) in 2025.

To balance its budget, the government has planned to increase taxes on high incomes and businesses on January 1.

However, labor shortages remain problematic in a large number of sectors, which is causing the national economy to overheat.

Faced with the Russian offensive, Ukraine, which is largely dependent on Western financial and military support, plans to devote more than 60% of its budget next year to defense and security.

Journalists arrested

Three journalists were also “arrested” on Monday evening in Moscow while covering a concert celebrating the anniversary of the claimed annexation of Ukrainian regions, according to the human rights NGO OVD-Info.

According to this source, one works for the news site Republic and the other two for the independent media outlet SOTAvision. These publications are classified as “foreign agents” in Russia.

The journalists were taken to a police station and two of them will be “charged with hooliganism,” the NGO said.

SOTAvision confirmed that its reporters were arrested while they were “collecting comments” from spectators leaving the concert on Red Square, having been unable to access the site themselves.

On September 30, 2022, Vladimir Putin signed decrees on the annexation of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk (east), as well as those of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (south).

On the front, Russian forces continue to advance in the east and claimed on Monday the conquest of a new small town, Nelipivka.

In the areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian forces, several Ukrainian attacks killed a teenager and injured eight other people, including three children, according to the leader of the Russian occupation in the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin.