Rwanda Votes, Fourth Term Ahead for President Kagame

Photo: Guillem Sartorio Agence France-Presse A voter collects a ballot paper on the morning of Rwanda's general elections at a polling station in Kigali, July 15, 2024.

Simon Valmary – Agence France-Presse in Kigali

Posted at 6:52 a.m.

• Africa

Rwandans vote Monday for the presidential and legislative elections, elections in which victory seems promised to the head of state Paul Kagame, who has led the country since the end of the Tutsi genocide in 1994, and to his party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).

Nine million Rwandans are called to the polls. The 2,433 polling stations opened around 7 a.m. (1 a.m. in Quebec) and will close at 3 p.m. (9 a.m. in Quebec).

The counting of votes will begin as soon as they close and partial results will be communicated as the counting progresses, until the announcement of provisional results on July 20, a source told AFP within the electoral commission.

The final results will be announced on July 27.

But the scenario seems known in advance. The presidential election pits the same three candidates against each other as in 2017, when the outgoing head of state won with 98.79% of the votes against the leader of the only authorized opposition party Frank Habineza (0.48%) and to the independent Philippe Mpayimana (0.73%).

Mariam Mukakaramba, a 47-year-old marriage counselor, arrived early at a polling station in the capital Kigali to vote “for development”.

“I know in my heart who I will vote for because I know he is capable,” she told AFP, adding that Rwanda was “now in a good position “.

Gatangaza Bwiza Nelly, 21, is one of the two million people who will cast a ballot in the box for the first time for these elections. The student assures that she “was looking forward to this day”.

“I think the results will be the same as in previous elections. It’s pretty obvious,” she said.

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Paul Kagame, 66, has firmly held the reins of the country since he overthrew in July 1994, with the RPF rebellion, the extremist Hutu government that instigated the genocide which the UN said caused more 800,000 deaths among the Tutsi minority.

First vice-president and minister of Defense but de facto leader of Rwanda, Paul Kagame has been officially its president since 2000, elected by Parliament after the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu, then three times by universal suffrage (95.05% in 2003 — 93.08% in 2010 — and 2017).

Muzzled Opposition

He enjoys strong popularity for having lifted the country, bloodless after the genocide and today presented by certain Western and African leaders as a model of development.

Its solid growth (7.2% on average between 2012 and 2022) was accompanied by infrastructure development (roads, hospitals, etc.) and socio-economic progress, particularly in the field education and health.

But he is also accused of muzzling critical voices of power.

The electoral commission invalidated the candidacy of an anti-Kagame voice, Diane Rwigara, due to non-compliant documents. She had already been excluded from the last presidential election, accused of falsifying documents and arrested, before being cleared by the courts in 2018.

Two opposition figures, Victoire Ingabire and Bernard Ntaganda, were also unable to run for president, due to past convictions. The courts rejected their requests to have their civil rights restored.

In a statement, Amnesty International denounced “severe restrictions” on the rights of the opposition, as well as “threats, arbitrary detentions, fabricated accusations, murders and enforced disappearances”.

“Too strong”

The three weeks of campaigning were dominated by Mr. Kagame and the RPF, whose portraits and red-white-blue colors are plastered across the country.

His rivals are almost invisible, even if Mr. Habineza welcomed a more peaceful context than in 2017, even ensuring that he had received “massive support” from the population.

Mr. Mpayimana admitted to being opposed to an opponent who was “too strong”.

The majority of residents cannot imagine any other president than Mr. Kagame. In this landlocked country in the Great Lakes region, 65% of the population is under 30 and has not known another leader.

For the first time, the presidential election is coupled with the legislative elections, where 589 candidates are running for the 80 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

Voters will elect 53 directly. Currently, the FPR has 40 seats out of 53 and its allies (Social Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Imberakuri Social Party) 11 seats. Mr Habineza's Green Democratic Party has two MPs.

The other 27 seats are reserved by quota for women, young people and the disabled.

They will be awarded on Tuesday to candidates not running under any partisan banner: 24 women will be elected by municipal and regional councilors, two young people by the National Youth Council and a person with a disability will be designated by the Federation of Associations of the Disabled.