Magdaline Boutros
Published at 0:00
- Europe
As Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region and Ukraine continues to lose ground in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is increasing pressure on his Western allies to obtain authorization to strike deeper into Russia's territory. Could such an eventuality truly reverse the course of the war? ?
“You never know what could change the course of the war, and a series of well-targeted strikes on military targets could be a trigger,” says Pavel Baev, a Russian-born professor at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway.
Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University who grew up in Ukraine and Russia, also suggests that such a move could be a turning point in the war. “It could significantly contribute to Ukraine’s ability to push Russia out of several territories and even prompt Russia to negotiate a deal [to end the war] that is more in line with Ukraine’s wishes.”
For months, Ukraine has been tirelessly demanding that its Western allies allow it to use the Storm Shadow missiles supplied by the United Kingdom and the ATACMS supplied by the United States to strike Russian military logistics sites and Russian airfields from which bombers take off.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, there are 250 military and paramilitary targets on Russian territory that could be hit from Ukraine by these long-range weapons.
“Ukraine could significantly disrupt Russian forces' supply lines, ammunition depots, fuel depots, etc. […] This could undermine the war machine that Russia is deploying in the Donbass,” Mr. Alexseev analyses, speaking of a “significant military advantage” that could thus be given to Ukraine.
Time is running out
Visiting Kiev on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised to “urgently” consider Ukraine’s military demands. US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are expected to meet on Friday to discuss the issue.
On Thursday, President Zelensky reiterated that time is running out. “We must be frank: the delay in the process of using weapons […] against military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation […] leads to Russia moving these military targets deeper” inland, he said.
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On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not fail to issue a warning to the West, brandishing once again the threat of a “war with NATO countries” if they gave their approval to increase Ukraine’s strike force.
“If this decision is taken, it would mean nothing less than a direct involvement of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine,” he declared. “This would change the very nature of the conflict. It would mean that NATO countries are at war with Russia.”
A “red line” that does not convince Pavel Baev. “Putin’s threats of consequences began at the very beginning of the disastrous decision to launch this aggression,” he recalls. This “strategy from the edge of the abyss” has become obsolete and has lost practically all credibility. »
Mikhail Alexseev also says he is not overly concerned about this threat — even though Russia has nuclear weapons. “If you look at the destruction of places like Mariupol, if you look at the destruction of the entire front line […], Russia has used almost everything it has against Ukraine, even chemical agents. Considering the scale of this destruction, Russia cannot gain much by using a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield.”
Ukrainian setbacks
As diplomatic negotiations continue, the Russian army has launched its counteroffensive on the ground in recent days in the Kursk region of Russia. Last month, Ukrainian troops seized about a hundred towns and villages there covering an area of about 1,300 square kilometers. “Ten localities were liberated in two days,” the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Thursday.
At the same time, in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, the Russian army is still threatening the town of Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub for Ukrainian troops. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Iran delivered 200 Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia in early September, which have not yet been used on Ukrainian soil.
Professor Baev does not believe that the Ukrainian military is on the brink of disaster, however. “The Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is as slow as the offensive on Pokrovsk — and neither can push Ukraine to the brink of defeat,” he says. “Kiev needs Western approval (and high-precision targeting) [to strike Russian military sites] to strengthen itself, not to avoid defeat.”
In Mikhail Alexseev’s view, authorizing more intense strikes on Russia would also have symbolic significance. “[The West would thus signal] its intention to support Ukraine more, which would be very important if Putin is to be prevented from continuing these types of aggressive wars.”