South Africa: ex-president Zuma excluded from elections 9 days before voting

South Africa's highest court has ruled On Monday, ex-president Jacob Zuma was ineligible due to a prison conviction. prison in 2021, and excluded him from the elections scheduled in nine days which could mark a historic setback for the ANC in power for thirty years.

More than 27.5 million South Africans are called on May 29 to elect their deputies, who will then choose the next president. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the end of apartheid, risks for the first time losing its absolute majority in Parliament and being forced to form a coalition government.

Polls attribute more than 8% of voting intentions to the new small opposition party led by Jacob Zuma, who according to experts appeals to disappointed ANC voters in a context of endemic unemployment and after multiple corruption scandals involving senior leaders. The ANC would fall to around 40% and the largest opposition party (Democratic Alliance, DA) would exceed 20%.

The always influential Mr. Zuma, 82 years old, who was not present at the Court, was a candidate for a deputy seat, head of the list of the Umkhonto We Sizwe movement (MK, “Spear of the nation” in Zulu).

Former South African President Jacob Zuma on May 18, 2024 in Soweto © AFP – Phill Magakoe

But, sentenced in 2021 to fifteen months in prison for contempt of justice after having repeatedly refused to appear before a commission of inquiry into state corruption during his nine years in power ( 2009-2018), his eligibility was contested and the debate around his participation monopolized the campaign and fueled fears of unrest.

The incarceration of the former president in July 2021 was followed, in a gloomy socio-economic climate, by a wave of violence unprecedented in the country since the end of apartheid, leaving more than 350 dead. MK members have promised “anarchy” if the courts torment their party before the elections.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, said on a local radio on Monday “not concerned”, considering the security forces ready to face “any threat”.

– “Not offside” –

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Former South African President Jacob Zuma on March 10, 2024 in Phillipi, near Cape Town © AFP – GIANLUIGI GUERCIA

“Mr Zuma was found guilty of an offense and sentenced to a term of imprisonment of more than 12 months,” said Justice Leona Theron reading the Constitutional Court's decision . As provided for by the Constitution, “he cannot be elected member of the National Assembly, nor stand for election”.

This decision can still technically be subject to of an appeal from the Electoral Commission (IEC) which had referred the matter to the Court, but this scenario is improbable since it won its case.

During the ten hours of debates earlier in May, Mr. Dali Mpofu representing Mr. Zuma tried to argue that the former president could not be considered ineligible since his prison sentence was shortened.

The sulphurous leader had only spent a little over two months behind bars, first benefiting from conditional release for health reasons, then a reduced sentence.

The high court ruled that only the length of the sentence handed down is relevant and not the length of the sentence served, putting an end on Monday to the legal saga surrounding the eligibility of Mr. Zuma.

At the end of March, the electoral commission excluded Jacob Zuma from the vote. This decision was overturned in April by an electoral court. The IEC finally appealed to the Constitutional Court last month.

“Jacob Zuma is still leader of the party, Jacob Zuma is on the MK ballot and people will vote for Jacob Zuma in numbers,” Sihle Ngubane, MK secretary general, said after Tuesday's hearing.

Mr. Zuma's photo will indeed appear on the ballot papers already printed but his candidacy will be removed from the official lists, said the IEC.

Former South African President Jacob Zuma on March 10, 2024 in Phillipi, near Cape Town © AFP – GIANLUIGI GUERCIA

The former president, forced to resign in 2018 after a series of scandals and still on trial for corruption, has always benefited from fervent popular support. Monday in front of the Court in Johannesburg, a few dozen supporters brandished signs with his image.

“The fact that he is ineligible does not mean that he is out of the game because he can still campaign for MK and be its face”, said underlined political analyst Sandile Swana, adding that his “party will not lose any votes”.

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