Storm Kirk: Winds are strengthening, follow the trajectory and forecast live

France is being swept by storm Kirk, winds are intensifying this Wednesday afternoon and sustained rains could cause flooding. 34 departments are now on orange alert by Météo France, and one on red alert.

The essentials

• This Wednesday, 34 departments are placed on orange alert by Météo France. We note the passage to orange alert "rain-flood", of the Meuse. The departments of Ain, Saône-et-Loire, Jura, Doubs, and Haute-Saône are placed on orange alert "strong wind". The department of Seine-et-Marne has been placed on red alert for "floods".
• Wind gusts could reach 100 to 110 km/h in the valleys and plains with no significant weakening expected en route between the western and eastern regions. Stormy winds will also affect the Pyrenees with more powerful gusts ranging from 120 to 150 km/h on the ridges.
• The Kirk depression is also expected to bring heavy rain to a large part of the north-west of the country. “Continuous and sustained rain will affect the regions extending from Vendée and Pays de Loire to the Paris region, southern Picardy and Champagne-Ardennes”, predicts Météo France.
• The trajectory of storm Kirk was refined on Tuesday, although it could still evolve and become more precise. The Windy application models meteorological data and allows you to visualize storm Kirk and its progression. Here you can see the wind gusts and their evolution.

Live

17:16 – No school transport Thursday morning in Seine-et- Marne

The Seine-et-Marne prefecture plans to ban school transport on Thursday morning due to the passage of storm Kirk and the expected bad weather. Depending on how the flooding develops, traffic may be able to resume in the afternoon, reports BFMTV. The Ile-de-France department has been placed on red alert for floods while a very damaging hydrological reaction is feared on the Grand Morin.

The department of Seine-et-Marne has just been placed on red alert for “floods” by Météo France, in particular due to a possible overflow of the Grand Morin watercourse, already under surveillance in recent hours.

16:26 – Forecasts for the Eastern zone

“The Territoire-de-Belfort department is placed on orange “wind” alert from Thursday, October 10 at midnight. For the other departments affected by the orange “wind” alert, there is no change,” indicates Météo France in its 4 p.m. bulletin this Wednesday. The rainy episode is more significant in the Aube, Marne, Ardennes and Meuse. The depression is also accompanied by a gust of wind over Saône-et-Loire, Jura, Haute-Saône, Doubs and Territoire-de-Belfort.

16:01 – “Considerable” accumulations from Vendée to Loire Atlantique

“Since yesterday evening, the cumulative rainfall has already been considerable from Vendée to Loire Atlantique with 93 mm in Noirmoutier, 67 mm in Nantes, 44 mm in Angers. The wind blew up to 120 km/h in Ciboure, 109 km/h at Cap Ferret, 100 km in Monistrol-sur-Loire, 96 km/h in Lyon”, indicated Météo France this Wednesday afternoon. There is currently no plan to raise the “rain-flood” alert level, so it is advisable to keep informed of the evolution of the situation, particularly with regard to flooding.

15:29 – Update on the situation in Ile-de-France

“In a context where rains have been abundantly watering the soils recently, the former hurricane “KIRK” will bring new moderate to heavy rains to the entire region until the middle of the night from Wednesday to Thursday, favoring flooding”. In addition, “light to moderate rains have reached the entire region. The cumulative amounts observed are low, with 5 to 8 mm on one half south of the region, less in the north”, indicates Météo France, in its bulletin of 3:01 p.m. this Wednesday for the Ile-de-France region.

15:07 – The rainy axis will strengthen this afternoon

“It is still raining continuously on the axis from Pays de la Loire to the Ardennes via the Paris basin. The rainy axis will strengthen during the afternoon”, indicates this Wednesday at 2 p.m. La Chaine Météo. For example, gusts of up to 109 km/h have been recorded at Cap Ferret (Gironde) and up to 2 weeks of rain in the Deux-Sèvres department in 24 hours.

14:32 – “The entire northern half” under the rain announces Météo France

The latest bulletin from Météo France, this Wednesday, October 9 at 1:56 p.m., reports rain over "the entire northern half of the country", associated with the Kirk depression. "They are more marked over the Pays-de-la-Loire at the beginning of the afternoon. Ahead, the southerly wind strengthens over the Pyrenees as well as over the Center-East", specifies the weather station. In addition, over the last three hours, 28mm were recorded in Nantes, 34mm in Porcin and 41mm in Noirmoutier.

14:02 – An update on Storm Kirk at 5pm at the Ministry of Ecology

A situation update is being organized this Wednesday at 5 p.m. at the Ministry of Ecology, indicates the entourage of the Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher. The latter will be accompanied by the Minister Delegate for Transport, François Durovray, to bring together "the stakeholders concerned" by storm Kirk.

12:31 – “Very significant” rainfall accumulations in the Ardennes and Pays-de-la-Loire

“Continuous and sustained rain will affect the regions extending from the Pays de la Loire to the Paris region, the south of Picardy and Champagne-Ardenne and the far west of Lorraine over the next few hours. Cumulative amounts over the whole day will be very significant, in the order of 50 to 70 mm up to 60 to 80 mm, or even locally 90 mm (notably Ardennes and Pays-de-la-Loire)”, indicates Météo France this afternoon.

Concerning the southerly wind, it "will strengthen rapidly and blow very hard in the west of the Pyrenees today, gusts could reach 120 to 150 km/h on the summits and 100 to 110 km/h in the valleys and foothills (…) During the afternoon and evening, from the Dauphiné to the “In Lyon, the Loire and Burgundy-Franche-Comté, gusts from the south to the southwest of 90 to 110 km/h are expected, occurring in regions weakened by the heavy rains of yesterday Tuesday,” the weather station said.

While the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department is on orange alert for “violent winds” this Wednesday, impressive gusts were recorded on the Iraty ridges, at an altitude of 1,427 meters. Late in the morning, around 11am, the station recorded gusts of 211 km/h. In Haut-Béarn, the Oléron station recorded gusts of 80 km/h, and up to 97 km/h at Bustince.

11:04 – The heaviest rains in Poitou-Charentes and the Paris basin

The sustained and long-lasting rainy episode in the Pays de la Loire, the Ardennes and the Île-de-France region still has some uncertainties, particularly concerning the precise zoning of the heavily rainy axis, which may occur further south or further north of it. “The heaviest rain falls in Poitou-Charentes from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m., then in the Centre and the Paris basin rather from 6 p.m. to 1 a.m., then from 10 p.m. to 03 a.m. Thursday for the northeast quarter, says La Chainemeteo/status/1843937292689313812?ref_src= twsrc%5Etfw[/embed]

The latest detailed report from Mét&eacuteo France at 10:06 places 34 departments on orange alert this Wednesday, October 9. The Meuse department is on orange alert for "rain-flooding", we also note the change to orange for "strong winds" in Ain, Saône-et-Loire, Jura, Doubs and Haute-Saône.  "The rains associated with the Kirk depression already concern a large northern half of the country. Over the last 6 hours, the cumulative rainfall remains modest, between 5 and 10 mm, locally 15 mm”, specifies the weather station.

09:39 – The equivalent of three weeks of precipitation in 24 hours

The latest press release from La Chaine Météo, this Wednesday at 9am, announces the arrival of heavy, sustained rain as the former tropical storm Kirk approaches. “The accumulations are expected to be significant in the regions from Poitou-Charentes to the Paris basin and the northeast until Thursday morning, falling on soils already saturated with water”. A general rise in watercourses and flooding are likely. On the cumulative side, 30 to 40mm are expected with peaks between 50 and 70mm in 24 hours. “That is the equivalent of three weeks of precipitation” specifies La Chaine Meteo, for the departments placed on orange “flood-flood” alert. 

08:11 – Where will it rain the most ?

“Continuous and sustained rain will affect the regions extending from Vendée and Pays de Loire to the Paris region, southern Picardy and Champagne-Ardennes”, warns Météo France this Wednesday morning. Cumulative amounts could reach 50 to 70 mm in the Paris basin and up to 80 mm in Champagne-Ardennes, “or even locally 90 mm heading towards Pays de Loire and Vendée”. Quantities that fall over a month. A phenomenon that occurs in a context of already very wet soils, which could cause flooding.

For this Wednesday, October 2024, Météo France places 30 departments on orange alert. We note the move to orange alert for "rain-flood", of Oise, Aisne and Mayenne, while the expected rainfall totals are revised upwards in Ile-de-France. The departments of Loire and Rhône also switch to orange for "winds". Regarding the general situation, the Kirk depression will indeed circulate over France during this Wednesday. “A rainy event (east) to be monitored in particular in the Pays de Loire, its duration and intensity could lead to a reassessment of the level of vigilance”, specifies Météo France.

A storm is sweeping across French lands from this Wednesday, October 9. Hurricane Kirk, which is evolving in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, downgraded to category 1/5, continues to weaken to become an extratropical storm, and it is this storm Kirk that will blow over France from west to east between this Wednesday and Thursday according to the weather forecast.

Storm Kirk is hitting the Bay of Biscay starting this Wednesday and will affect a large northwest quarter before gradually moving northeast. The depression is expected to follow a diagonal axis from Vendée, in the Pays de la Loire, to Lorraine, in the Grand Est.

Météo-France has placed 34 departments on orange alert for Wednesday. Alongside these departments located in the axis affected by the Kirk depression, we note the passage to orange alert “rain-flooding” of the Meuse. The departments of Ain, Saône-et-Loire, Jura, Doubs, and Haute-Saône are themselves placed on orange alert “strong wind”

Bretagne, Ile-de-France… What trajectory ?

Storm Kirk will bring violent winds. Gusts could reach 100 to 110 km/h in the valleys and plains without significant weakening expected along the way between the western and eastern regions. Stormy winds will also affect the Pyrenees with more powerful gusts ranging from 120 to 150 km/h on the ridges. “With the passage of depression Kirk, the wind will suddenly switch to “west at the end of the day with still gusts close to 100 km/h”, specifies Météo France in its bulletin of Wednesday October 9. On the Loire and the Rhône, 100 to 110 km/h temporarily in the Gier valley and in the south and east of Lyon.

The winds generated by storm Kirk should be the main danger, they can cause trees or objects to fall. In case of vigilance, it is recommended to protect your house and to fix or bring in any outdoor objects likely to be carried away. It is also preferable to limit your movements and to stay informed of the situation via the authorities. The risks are all the greater when heavy rains are added to the strong winds.

Heavy rains and risk of flooding

In addition to the stormy winds, depression Kirk is expected to bring heavy rains to a large northwestern part of the country. “Continuous and sustained rains will affect the regions extending from Vendée and Pays de Loire to the Paris region, southern Picardy and Champagne-Ardennes”, predicts Météo France. The Météo Channel predicts heavier rains in Poitou-Charentes from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m., then in the Center and the Paris basin rather from 6 p.m. to 1 a.m., then from 10 p.m. to 3 a.m. on Thursday for the north-east quarter. “Flooding is likely as well as a general rise in the watercourses of these watersheds (particularly the upper Seine)”, specifies La Chaine Meteo.

“The totals over the whole day will be very significant, they could reach 50 to 70 mm in the Paris basin and Champagne-Ardennes and 60 to 80 mm, or even locally 90 mm heading towards the Pays de Loire and Vendée, specifies Météo France. Quantities that usually fall in a month. These precipitations will occur "in a context of already very wet soils and could therefore cause flooding," adds the meteorological agency.