The Bloc could upset the government

Photo: Adrian Wyld The Canadian Press Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet speaks to reporters outside caucus, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Ottawa.

Laura Osman – The Canadian Press and Nojoud Al Mallees – The Canadian Press The Canadian Press

Published yesterday at 12:38

• Canada

The federal government will have to decide in the coming weeks whether to give in to the Bloc Québécois’ ultimatum demanding “the irreversible implementation” of two of its bills by October 29.

By rejecting these demands, he could lose the Bloc’s support in the upcoming non-confidence votes presented in the House of Commons.

The first of the two legislative proposals from Yves-François Blanchet’s party aims to increase the pension for seniors aged 65 to 74 to the level of those paid to those aged 75 and over, while the other aims to exclude supply management from any future trade negotiations.

If the government accepts them, it risks harming its own political and fiscal programs.

The government is trying to implement a political strategy aimed at satisfying members of generations Y and Z who believe they are not being rewarded for their work as were those who came before them. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau even speaks of “a fair chance for every generation.”

Andrew Perez, a Liberal strategist with Perez Strategies, wonders what political benefits the government could get from increasing pensions.

“I don't see a clear political benefit for Mr. Trudeau's Liberals if they spend even more money on seniors,” he says.

Seniors appear to be the only segment of the electorate where the Liberals are still competitive, Perez adds.

The young voters who were instrumental in electing Justin Trudeau in 2015 appear to have shifted to the right of the political spectrum. Polls indicate that a majority of them support Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

“Historically, the Liberals always lead the Conservatives among younger generations. For the Liberals to see this data is heresy,” Perez said.

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Tyler Meredith, a former economic adviser to Justin Trudeau and two finance ministers, agrees that it would be difficult for any political party to oppose giving seniors more money.

“The problem would be implementing it. And the cost,” he said.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates that increasing pensions for seniors under 75 would cost $16 billion over the next five years.

Mr. Meredith believes that it will be difficult for the government to add this amount to the spending they plan to make in various sectors such as housing.

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“I’m not saying it’s necessary, just from an intergenerational point of view, but I'm not sure it's the most efficient way to spend it.”

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland had promised to introduce safeguards to limit spending and the deficit. She indicated last week that discussions with the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP) on new measures to help seniors were fruitful.

The Canada Pension Plan is one of the federal government's largest expenditures. In 2022, the government had spent nearly $70 billion on Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and the Spouse’s Allowance.

In July 2022, the Old Age Security pension was permanently increased by 10% for people aged 75 and over.

The Bloc Québécois believes that this measure was discriminatory.

Stephen Gordon, director of the Department of Economics at Université Laval, disagrees. According to him, it is the oldest seniors who most often find themselves in need.

“When you're over 75, you're less likely to be able to work to supplement your income,” he says. He adds that older people have also spent more of their savings.

Spending more money on seniors shouldn't be at the top of the government's priority list, Gordon believes. He also notes that the poverty rate is lower among this age group.

“You have to think about all the other priorities: housing, education, health, oh my! Health! Seniors are at the bottom of the priority list. The federal government's finances are getting more and more thorny.”

According to Statistics Canada, the poverty rate among people aged 65 and over was 6% in 2022, 3.9 percentage points lower than the national average.

The Liberal government doesn’t have much time to think about its choices. In addition to the Bloc Québécois’ ultimatum, it must table its fall economic statement, which will outline its upcoming spending plans.

The House of Commons is also expected to consider other motions of non-confidence against the government in the coming weeks.