Photo: Graham Hughes La Presse canadienne Dans la circonscription de LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, le siège est vacant depuis le départ de l’ancien ministre de la Justice David Lametti en janvier dernier.
Voters in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will go to the polls to elect a new federal MP on September 16, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Sunday. The seat has been vacant since former Justice Minister David Lametti stepped down in January.
Some say the results of this by-election will be crucial to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future.
“It’s absolutely essential for the Liberals and for Justin Trudeau to win in this riding. If the Liberals were to lose, it would put even more pressure on Justin Trudeau [to] resign,” believes Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada and professor of political science.
The Liberals are still recovering from a crushing defeat in another byelection, in Toronto–St. Paul’s, last month. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives surprisingly won the race by just 590 votes, despite the riding having been a Liberal stronghold for more than 30 years.
The surprise defeat left Trudeau’s leadership shaken, but he has reiterated that he will not give up his seat as Liberal leader. The latter has been party leader for 11 years.
The stakes for the by-election in Verdun are therefore high for the Prime Minister, especially since the constituency located in the borough of Verdun has always carried the Liberal colours since its creation, during the electoral redistricting of 2013.
Former federal Justice Minister David Lametti, who left politics last January, had won the riding three times since 2015, far ahead of his opponents each time. Daniel Béland believes that this could herald another Liberal victory, but does not rule out the possibility of reversals.
“We would expect the Liberals to win, under normal conditions. But we are in a very difficult situation for the Liberals when we look at the polls across the country, or even in Quebec,” he recalls.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000The latest Abacus poll gives Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives 43% of voting intentions nationally and the Liberals 23%. In Quebec, the only province where the Conservative Party is not leading, the Bloc Québécois has collected 37% of voting intentions, 12 points ahead of the Liberals, and 18 points ahead of the Conservatives.
Jean-François Daoust, assistant professor at the School of Applied Politics at the Université de Sherbrooke, also believes that “everything seems possible,” after last month’s defeat in Toronto–St. Paul’s.
“The fact that everything seems possible says a lot about the strength of the Liberal Party. It’s not normal for us to discuss the possibility that the party could lose this riding,” he says. According to him, the particular configuration of three-candidate races in Quebec, combined with the low turnout in by-elections, could create surprises.
An “anti-democratic” candidacy
Even before the partial election began, the Liberals' choice of candidate sparked controversy. It was the municipal representative Laura Palestini who was parachuted in as a candidate by the Prime Minister himself, avoiding going through an investiture meeting, as the party usually does.
< p>Jean-François Daoust has difficulty explaining this choice. “It's a little strange, because it's obvious to Justin Trudeau that such a decision was going to result in quite negative media coverage and negative reactions from the people who invested a lot of their time [for this race],” explains -he.
Two aspiring candidates who campaigned in vain have also confided to the Devoir to be extremely disappointed by this decision, after several months of work in preparation for the investiture meeting.
“Justin Trudeau seems undemocratic among the activist base, which is a disadvantage, because we want to have an activist base motivated to go and vote. All those who, for example, were recruited or who hoped to be candidates for the nomination can be demobilized, and all that, without a clear net advantage,” indicates Mr. Daoust, who explains that a local candidacy generally has little impact in a race.
The New Democratic Party will be represented by Craig Sauvé, another elected official from Montreal. The latter currently sits as an independent at Montreal City Hall and on the Sud-Ouest borough council.
The Conservatives chose entrepreneur Louis Ialenti, who ran as a Conservative in Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel in 2021, coming in second with 10.5% of the vote.
On Sunday, Louis-Philippe Sauvé was nominated as a candidate for the Bloc Québécois. A long-time sovereignist activist, Mr. Sauvé is running for office for the first time, with experience in communications and administration at the Institut de recherche en économie contemporaine.
The by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will be held on September 16. The riding had been vacant since Mr. Lametti resigned on January 31. He left politics six months after being ousted from the cabinet.