The climate verdict is in: 2024 is the hottest year on record

© Piotr Twardowski/Pexels

The year 2024 is coming to write its thermal footprint in the annals of our planetary history; climate records collected by international organizations all converge towards this conclusion. Crossing the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C marks the entry of our planet into a new era: that of unbridled warming where extreme events will become the norm and ecosystems will be pushed to their limits.

A deep wound thatwe will probably leave to future generations, who will be marked by shaky food security, threatened access to water and uncontrollable population movements.

A dizzying thermal escalation

Measurements carried out by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of European Union reveals a rise of 1.6°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures. This increase exceeds by 0.17°C the previous record set in 2023, itself already remarkable in the history of climate records.

A unanimity of data underlined by Dr. Carlo Buontempo, doctor in physics and director of the C3S: “All international databases on global temperatures confirm that 2024 was the warmest year since measurements began in 1850“.

The last decade concentrates the ten warmest years ever recorded, drawing an upward curve whose slope gradually increases. This thermal acceleration is the sign of a structural modification of our climate system, whose effects are already manifesting themselves on a planetary scale. Heat waves, extreme precipitation, repeated droughts, increase in hurricanes and cyclones, loss of biodiversity, etc.

This diagram illustrates the evolution of general temperature anomalies compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) between 1940 and 2024. Each bar represents the average annual temperature deviation in degrees Celsius, showing a marked upward trend over the decades. © Copernicus Climate Change Service

Climate change: a story of natural phenomena and anthropogenic influence

The year 2024 was sadly distinguished by an exceptional combination; in the first sense of the term; of climatic phenomena. At the forefront of this dynamic, the El Niño phenomenon reconfigures ocean currents in the tropical Pacific. This natural oscillation, characterized by an accumulation of warm surface water, generates a considerable heat transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere. The water masses, whose temperature can exceed seasonal averages by several degrees, then gradually release their thermal energy, causing a cascade of changes in global atmospheric circuits.

But Man remains the main culprit. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has given us a real slap in the face: the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has crossed the historic threshold of 420 ppm in 2023. This means that in one million air molecules, there are on average 420 carbon dioxide molecules. This value, which represents a 50% increase compared to the 280 ppm of the pre-industrial era, explains the extent of atmospheric transformations induced by human activities.

The physical mechanism at work is incontestable: these additional CO2 molecules amplify the natural greenhouse effect, trapping an increasing fraction of the Earth's infrared radiation and thus modifying the planet's thermal balance. Samantha Burgess, Strategic Climate Officer at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, explains: “We are now teetering on the brink of exceeding the 1.5°C level set out in the Paris Agreement, and the average of the last two years is already above that threshold“. A very strong signal of the urgency of the situation.

La Niña Won't Save Us From Global Warming

The expected emergence of La Niña introduces another variable into this hot equation. This oceanic phenomenon, marked by a resurgence of deep, cold waters in the equatorial Pacific, usually has a moderating effect on global temperatures. Yet the UK Met Office's modelling does not point to this scenario: even under the influence of this natural cooling, 2025 is expected to rank among the three warmest years in modern history.

A rather dire, paradoxical projection, commented by Adam Scaife of the Met Office: “In 2016, the planet experienced its warmest year on record due to El Niño. Yet compared to our forecast for 2025, this year now looks almost cool ».

We are heading straight for a brick wall, let's not beat around the bush, but changing course is still possible, even if the chances are slim. The democratization of renewable energies is a sign that a transition is still possible: solar energy has seen its costs fall by 85% since 2010, while offshore wind has multiplied its capacity by seven over the same period. This is little consolation, since this energy metamorphosis is violently colliding with a stubborn reality. The growth in global demand for energy, which is increasing by 2% per year on average.

Today, more than ever, we are faced with a terrible dilemma: are we going to continue to favour economic growth based on ever-increasing energy consumption, at the risk of compromising our future, or are we going to opt for a more sober and sustainable development model, focusing on energy efficiency and drastically reducing our greenhouse gas emissions? The dominant economic model, the fossil fuel lobbies and the inertia of political systems already seem to be giving us the beginnings of an answer, and for the moment, it is not going in the right direction. How long will we continue to procrastinate ?

• The year 2024 marks a new alarming peak in global warming, crossing critical thresholds.
• Human activities, amplified by natural phenomena, are accelerating a climate crisis that is already visible on a global scale.
• Despite progress in renewable energies, global energy growth seriously jeopardizes a possible sustainable transition.

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