Three years after the return of the Taliban, Afghanistan mired in poverty

Three years after the return of a Taliban government, Afghanistan has an economy at “zero growth” and its population is sinking into poverty with a worsening humanitarian crisis, with no hope of improvement anytime soon.

In 2021, the new government inherited an established administration. Prices have fallen, the currency has held up, corruption is no longer at its peak and taxes are better collected.

Above all, security has returned, creating a climate conducive to business. After 40 years of war, goods and people now circulate safely from Kabul to Herat (west), from Mazar-e-Sharif (north) to Jalalabad (east).

But the GDP has contracted violently by 26% in 2021 and 2022, according to the World Bank for which “growth will be zero for the next three years and per capita income will fall under the demographic surge”.

Development aid has all but stopped because the government is not recognized by any country. Humanitarian aid has collapsed and a third of the 45 million Afghans survive on bread and tea, while unemployment is massive.

Afghan workers sort and process dried saffron at a factory in Herat on July 23, 20 © AFP – Mohsen KARIMI

Mineral-rich Afghanistan also has great agricultural potential but suffers from a brain drain, a lack of infrastructure, foreign expertise and funding.

“The crux of the matter is finding strategic partners,” Sulaiman Bin Shah, deputy minister of commerce on the morning the Taliban entered Kabul and now an investment advisor, told AFP.

Kabul has found some: “with Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran (and the Central Asian republics), we cooperate a lot,” said Ahmad Zahid, deputy minister of commerce and Industry.

The Mes Aynak project, the second largest copper deposit in the world, which has been stalled since 2008, has just been relaunched by Kabul and Beijing.

But to get out of underdevelopment, “we must reopen the banking channels”, blocked by Western sanctions and the freezing of the Central Bank's assets, says Mr. Bin Shah.

AFP asked Afghans in Kabul, Herat and Ghazni (centre), how they live today.

– The happy entrepreneur –

At 54, Azizullah Rehmati is a happy entrepreneur. Its saffron plant is expected to double its production this year.

Entrepreneur Azizullah Rehmati in his office in Herat, July 23, 2024 © AFP – Mohsen KARIMI

“Before, we wanted to invest outside the country, but with security restored and exports made easier, we preferred to invest in Afghanistan,” he says.

Until 2021, his “Red Gold Saffron Company” had its saffron escorted by guards to Herat airport. “Now there is no problem,” says Mr. Rehmati, who exports to 27 countries.

In his factory, women sort the red pistils of the precious spice with tweezers.

But only 50% of Afghan bosses still employ women. The Taliban's restrictions on women's work and education are weighing on the economy.

“Money transfers are a real problem,” he adds, “we have to go through money changers in Dubai to get our funds into Afghanistan.”

And “if we don't get a visa in time to go to international fairs, or if we don't get a visa at all, we lose positions on the world market.”

– The Idle Musician –

Afghan musician Wahid Nekzai Logari plays the “sarinda”, a local instrument, in his house in Kabul on July 22, 2024 © AFP – Wakil KOHSAR

Wahid Nekzai Logari belonged to the National Orchestra and gave concerts of “sarenda”, a traditional stringed instrument, and harmonium, as far as India.

“I supported my whole family. We had a good life”, says the 46-year-old Afghan, in his modest house in a suburb of Kabul.

“With the establishment of the Islamic Emirate, music was banned. Now I am unemployed.”

To feed his family of seven people, he occasionally drives a taxi.

He now earns only 5,000 afghanis per month (65 euros), a fifth of what his concerts brought him.

“The Taliban searched my house, like all the others in Kabul,” he says. “They saw my instruments. I told them I didn't play them anymore and they didn't break them.”

“No one told us: you don't play music anymore but we'll find you a way to feed your family,” he laments.

– The beautician in hiding –

The order to close beauty salons last year had “broken her heart,” but Sayeda (not her real name) moved back to another part of Kabul four months ago.

“We found this place to rent,” says the 21-year-old manager, “on the condition that the clients come very discreetly and that some of our employees sleep here so that the neighbors think that a family lives there.”

“Before, we had 30 to 40 clients per day, now it’s six or seven,” says the woman who has despite everything kept her 25 employees so that “each one has an income”.

Those in the living room have been divided by three. Sayeda's salary dropped from 25,000 Afghanis to a range of 8,000 to 12,000.

“We work in hiding and we don't know for how much longer”, worries Sayeda.

The police “discovered some (illegal) salons, they broke the equipment, mistreated the staff” and imposed fines.

– The insurgent who became a civil servant –

For four years, Abdul Wali Shaheen wanted to “die as a martyr ” in the Taliban ranks. After the victory, he traded his rocket launcher for a computer at the Department of Information and Culture in Ghazni.

“I wasn't so stressed than today,” admits the 31-year-old former mujahid. “I have more responsibilities towards the public.”

“We were only waging jihad, now it’s more difficult,” assures he.

His salary of 10,000 Afghanis is enough to feed his family of five.

“I gives a 10/10 to the Emirate for these three years”, he said, “everything is going well and we have hope for the future”.

He quotes the return of security, “a great success”, and the expropriations of illegally occupied public land and buildings.

He however concedes “gaps”, which, he hopes he, “will be fulfilled”.

“Peace must continue”, he concludes.

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