Tight struggles for control of Congress

Photo: Jon Elswick Associated Press The United States Capitol

Marco Fortier

Published at 21:02 Updated at 23:00

• United States

Extremely tight races for control of the U.S. Congress were taking place Tuesday night. All indications are that the next occupant of the White House will have limited room to maneuver given the slim majorities expected in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

By 10:30 p.m., it seemed likely that the two parties would swap control of both chambers: Republicans would take away the Democrats' slim two-seat majority in the Senate; Democrats, for their part, would seize the majority in the House of Representatives, whose 435 seats were at stake.

“It would be a unique moment in recent history for the House and the Senate to simultaneously change political color,” reacted Charles-Philippe David, founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at UQAM.

Regardless of who wins the presidency—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—the United States specialist expects the task to be difficult for the next occupant of the White House.

His colleague Christophe Cloutier-Roy, also of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, is of the same opinion. notice. An elected president usually wins a majority in both houses of Congress, which allows him to have his bills approved at least until the midterm elections, the researcher recalls.

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This time, “it risks being very small majorities in both houses. It will not be easy to have projects or personnel appointments approved, such as secretaries or justices to the Supreme Court, because there are always one or two disgruntled people [especially among Democrats]”, he adds.

Congressional elections are also crucial to allow the president to have budgets approved: “There is not a penny that is spent by the government in the United States without approval of the budget by Congress.”

Donald Trump’s troops appeared well positioned to deprive Democrats of the two seats that gave them a majority in the Senate. As early as 7:37 p.m., CNN reported that former Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin, who is retiring, would be replaced by Republican Governor Jim Justice as senator from West Virginia.

In Ohio, incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was trailing his Republican opponent. Another Democrat, Jon Tester, was threatened by the rise of the Republican Party in Montana. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin was leading her Republican opponent by a percentage point.

Republican Senator Deb Fischer was trailing an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, in Nebraska. Republican Ted Cruz, elected in Texas since 2013, seemed able to keep his seat.

On the House side

On the House side, all eyes were on the traditionally Democratic states of New York and California, where Republicans made a breakthrough in 2022. The results are likely to come late, perhaps in several days, due to the very close contests, note the researchers of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.

The outcome in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, where two former military men and lawyers with no political experience were locked in a tight race, will provide a good indication of Democrats’ ability to wrest the lower chamber from Republicans. At the time of writing, Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman led Republican Derrick Anderson by two percentage points. Democrat Abigail Spanberger did not run in this key suburban district. She plans to run for governor of Virginia next year.

The two parties were also locked in tight races in North Carolina. In Delaware, the House of Representatives could welcome its first trans woman, Sarah McBride.