TikTok banned in the United States from Sunday: complete blockage, acquisition, political bailout… what future for the social network ?

It's official! TikTok, the Chinese social network, will officially be banned in the United States starting Sunday, January 19, 2025, if its Chinese parent company refuses to sell it. The application of this ban remains unclear. But in concrete terms, what will happen next? Several scenarios are emerging.

On April 20, 2024, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill sponsored by Joe Biden that would ban TikTok in the United States, starting January 19, unless the social network cuts ties with its parent company ByteDance, and more broadly with China.

Democrats and Republicanshave therefore agreed to adopt this law targeting companies owned or controlled by hostile foreign powers, with China being a particular target. “The measure is presented as justified by the fact of protecting the national security of the United States, in particular American personal, sensitive or strategic data”, underlines Valère Ndior, professor of public law in Brest, contacted by Midi Libre.

The American elected officials justified the vote on this law by the fears of seeing the data and content of American users exploited by the Chinese authorities, suspected of using the platform as a spying tool (which China has always denied).

The American Supreme Court hasapproved unanimously, Friday, January 17, theentry into force of this law on January 19. But Donald Trump, who will be president again on Monday, has asked for time to decide whether to implement it.

A blow to freedom of expression

The video platform, popular with young people around the world, is accused by American officials of allowing Beijing to spy on and manipulate its 170 million users in the United States, thus undermining freedom of expression. “Digital rights groups, academics and civil society criticize the TikTok model as bad for health and well-being, but at the same time condemn the fact that there could be a measure to ban it. And consider it a violation of the First Amendment,” he adds.

The social network plays a vital role for many content creators, including influencers who depend on the platform for their income. “Some go so far as to say that their well-being is at stake, because they can no longer imagine living without TikTok”, he observes.

Several scenarios

According to the expert, three scenarios are possible:

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Complete ban from Sunday: TikTok would be removed from mobile app download platforms and blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to make the site inaccessible on computers and other connected devices from the United States. Users who have already downloaded the application will no longer be able to open it and will be automatically directed to a message about the new legislation and will be invited to download their data and already published content. However, they could try to circumvent the ban by using VPNs (Editor's note: virtual private network) to make their connection disappear as coming from another country, but “even then, the lack of updates would make it difficult to use”. Indeed, the text of the law does not require everyone to uninstall it, nor does TikTok have to cut off its service. Political rescue by Donald Trump : The president-elect who tried to ban TikTok at the end of his first term in 2020, also in the name of national security, now shows a certain sympathy or affection for the social network by believing that it can be useful to him in carrying out his political and governance activities. Donald Trump's team is exploring many options, including the adoption of a presidential decree (“executive order”) that would suspend the application of the law. A legally fragile scenario, because a decree cannot in principle block a law. But once invested, the president-elect can choose not to apply the law. The text will therefore fall into the hands of the Department of Justice, namely Pam Bondi, who will decide whether or not to initiate possible prosecutions. Acquisition by an American company: ByteDance could sell TikTok to the Americans, but the company has always maintained that it would not sell the app. A full sale would likely require permission from China, as the country has listed parts of TikTok’s algorithms as software subject to export restrictions. So the acquired TikTok could continue to exist “under different governance” and become a “separate app”. “This would radically change the rules of the game, particularly in terms of moderation and access to content,”, he explains, emphasizing that it still raises many questions and queries.

TikTok would be removed from application download platforms (iillustration). imageBROKER.com – imageBROKER/JAQUE DA SILVA

Another scenario: Until now, ByteDance had opposed the idea of ​​selling its treasure, but, according to the agency Bloomberg, the Chinese government would be open to a buyout by Elon Musk, already the majority shareholder of another social network, X (formerly Twitter) and an ally of Donald Trump.

However, Biden said that his rumors were “completely unfounded” while TikTok called these speculations “pure fiction”. The expert interviewed is of the same opinion: “I think they have no interest in selling TikTok to Elon Musk” .

A “dangerous precedent”

Beyond the United States, this scenario raises international concerns: “TikTok is not only threatened there. It is subject to restrictive measures or threats of restrictions in many countries around the world, such as its ban on the phones of civil servants in certain countries in Canada or at the European level (Editor's note: since March 2023 in France).”

“This could set a dangerous precedent, because it could suggest that ultimately on very vague grounds of national security, it is possible to ban a foreign application”, warns the man whose research focuses on international law and digital law.

We would thus follow the same logic that led to the banning of Facebook Meta in several countries, such as China, by invoking reasons of national security to justify this ban.

TikTok could be banned in Europe ?

In France and more generally in Europe, criticism of TikTok focuses more on its operation and its consequences on so-called vulnerable users. “The design of the application, which encourages addiction, and the inappropriate content broadcast to the youngest are often at the heart of the debate”, recalls Valère Ndior.

In May 2024, France also blocked TikTok in New Caledonia under the state of emergency, a first in the European Union. At the European level, in December 2024, the Commission opened an investigation into the digital platform regarding allegations of electoral interference in the Romanian presidential election.“TikTok was allegedly used by malicious actors to influence the course of the election”, he confirms.

Despite these measures, a total ban on TikTok for the general public in France or Europe seems unlikely at this stage. The European Union generally favours regulatory approaches, such as the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), to regulate the use of technologies and protect user data, rather than imposing complete bans.

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