Trudeau government's little survival guide

Photo: Sean Kilpatrick La Presse canadienne À l’heure actuelle, aucun projet de loi ne peut être adopté ou débattu à la Chambre des communes.

Justin Trudeau’s minority government now has a good chance of survival, with opposition parties disagreeing on whether it needs to be brought down now. The big challenge remains: how to untangle itself from the parliamentary gridlock that is preventing it from pursuing its agenda. ?

Currently, no bills can be passed or debated in the House of Commons. With the notable exception of Question Period, most business in the lower house of Parliament is being postponed by the day.

The reason ? Commons Speaker Greg Fergus ruled in late September that the government had failed to follow Parliament’s order to provide documents on a disgraced federal green fund and then turn them over to the police. The question of privilege was raised.

“It's a constitutional principle: Parliament is its own boss. It must always resolve issues of its own functioning before doing anything else,” explains Philippe Lagassé, a professor at Carleton University and expert on Canada's parliamentary system.

This slump could continue until the end of the year… or even until the end of the legislature. Le Devoir surveyed experts and representatives from all parties to find out how this little game might end.

1. Return the documents

The opposition parties maintain that the government only has to hand over the documents requested by Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC). That’s what the Harper government did in a similar standoff over documents on the war in Afghanistan. This time, however, the additional requirement to hand over the documents to the police complicates matters.

First, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police don’t want it. The federal police are investigating SDTC but don’t want Parliament telling them what to do. This poses a “serious risk” of appearing to circumvent its investigative processes, its commissioner, Mike Duheme, warned in a July letter. The government argues that it respects the independence of the police.

That’s not all: even if the government satisfies the official opposition on what it calls the “green slush fund,” another question of privilege is waiting in the wings. Speaker Fergus has given the green light for debate on a request for documents about former business partners of Minister Randy Boissonnault. The paralysis will continue, but on another issue.

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2. A reconciliation with the NDP

If the Liberal government wants to put an end to the endless debates, it can table a closure motion, or a “gag order.” As a minority, it needs the support of at least one opposition party to pass it. Problem: no one is willing to help it anymore.

The Bloc Québécois withdrew its offer of collaboration on Tuesday, and joined the Conservative Party in fomenting a plan to call an election as soon as possible. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is not part of this pact, even after abruptly ending its agreement with the government in September. This party is considering supporting the government during confidence votes, such as budget votes, if it finds it to its advantage.

The NDP is not going so far as to offer him a way out of the “green mud fund” issue, at least for now. “The Conservatives are systematically obstructing, and the Liberals are refusing to be transparent and to hand over the documents. I tell them: you are responsible for this, find a solution,” Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice told Devoir this week.

3. Conservative exhaustion

The debates can continue for a long time, provided that the opposition members have the will to hang on to the microphone. The procedures allow the members to monopolize the assembly for about thirty minutes each. The 119 Conservative members thus have the power to force about sixty hours of debate on the question of privilege.

However, for a long time now, the debates have not focused on the motion itself, but rather on an amendment tabled by a member, then on a subamendment to modify the amendment. Each time, the counter starts over from zero. The latest debates focused on adding witnesses to appear before the parliamentary committee where it is proposed to refer the matter.

Two Conservative sources confirmed to Devoir that they have no intention of stopping these delaying tactics, designed to lengthen the time of the debates, unless it is part of a coordinated plan for an election.

4. An extension

Justin Trudeau has a mysterious card up his sleeve: prorogation. He can ask the Governor General to end the parliamentary session so that it can start anew in several months.

This option could eliminate the question of privilege, but it would have the side effect of killing on the order paper all the bills still being examined by elected officials or senators. It is also not a magic solution to resolve the Prime Minister’s political problems since he would still need the support of at least one opposition party for his Speech from the Throne when he returns.

A senior Liberal source assured Devoir that this scenario was not in the plans. Other cards the Prime Minister has at his disposal, but which he does not want to play, include giving up his place as Liberal leader and calling an election himself.

5. Endure the blockage

The government may have to accommodate this legislative breakdown for a while, for want of an alternative option. As a consolation prize, a paralysis that would continue until December could compromise the holding of three other votes of censure that the conservatives want to concoct.

Meanwhile, the Liberals are no longer able to implement their program. Promised changes to capital gains tax are blocked, and a motion to tighten the screws on anti-abortion organizations will meet the same fate. The climate of distrust is even trapping ministers in the country. At the Environment, Steven Guilbeault had to mourn his presence at COP16 in Colombia, failing to convince an opposition elected official to accompany him and, thus, to compensate for his absence with that of someone from the opposing benches.

Justin Trudeau’s third term as head of the Canadian government ends at the latest on October 20, 2025. To get there, he will have to find enough support to ratify his next budget this spring. Otherwise, elections will unblock things in Parliament.