Trump or Harris ? The French have a preference for the American election, the opinion of young people is striking

What is the candidate à the American presidential election that the French would like to see take place in the White House? A YouGov poll for Linternaute gives the answer.

It is an understatement to say that the America of Donald Trump and that of Kamala Harris would not have the same face, so numerous and irreconcilable are their political differences. The American election of November 5, 2024, is of considerable importance for the approximately 330 million Americans, but it must also be said that the rest of the world will be impacted by the choice of the citizens of the United States. This presidential election is also being closely followed by the economic and political players of our continent, European investors, but also by the forces involved in supporting Ukraine.

The French are therefore right to be interested in the subject, even if the candidates' news is not yet of great interest in France. A YouGov survey (to be discovered in its entirety here), carried out for Linternaute, reveals that only 48% of French people are following this American presidential campaign. This study, rich in lessons, also sheds light on the way in which the French perceive Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Unsurprisingly, given the Republican billionaire's unpopularity, the vast majority of French people want Donald Trump to be defeated in the 2024 presidential election. 55% of those polled would prefer Kamala Harris, who took over Joe Biden's campaign, to be elected head of state. Only 19% are leaning towards Donald Trump. 26% preferred to say they had no opinion or were “not sure” they preferred a candidate. Note that the image of the Republican candidate has, despite has improved in France in recent years: in 2020, only 10% of French people wanted Donald Trump to win, according to a previous YouGov poll for Linternaute.

 

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Donald Trump appreciated especially among the youngest French

While Kamala Harris is popular with the French, let's also note that the answer to this question varies significantly depending on the profiles of those surveyed. Thus, 27% of men and only 10% of women in France prefer a victory for Donald Trump. The latter is also much more appreciated by the youngest French (35% of 18-34 year-olds want her to win – almost double the average of those surveyed, 37% want Kamala Harris to lead the country). Only 12% of those over 55 prefer the Republican to win.

The differences are also remarkable depending on partisan proximity. Only 8% of supporters of the New Popular Front want Donald Trump to win again. They are 15% among supporters of Emmanuel Macron or Ensemble. They are significantly more numerous among LR supporters (23%, compared to 19% in 2020). Unsurprisingly, it is the supporters of the National Rally who are the most numerous to want Donald Trump to win (29%, compared to 22% in 2020). However, 47% of the latter are want Kamala Harris to be the next president of the United States.

The French who do not vote or who say they are not ideologically close to any party are 45% to prefer a victory of Donald Trump (against 34% for Kamala Harris), which suggests that the American billionaire embodies in their eyes a position outside the system, even anti-system.

Kamala Harris rather appreciated by the French

The Yougov poll for Linternaute also allows us to gauge the popularity of the two candidates. 49% of French people have a good or very good opinion of Kamala Harris (18% of them say the same for Donald Trump), 12% have a bad opinion of the Democrat (while 63% of French people have a bad opinion of the Republican).

The French are, however, quite pessimistic about Kamala Harris's ability, if she is elected President of the United States, to weigh in on the resolution of major armed conflicts. Only 33% of respondents believe that she would be able to “provide solutions to the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.” The French are even more sceptical. Donald Trump's position on the subject: only 22% think that Donald Trump could have a positive influence on these issues.

The survey presented in this article was conducted on 1,000 people representative of the French national population aged 18 and over. The survey was conducted online, on the YouGov France proprietary panel from October 1 to 3, 2024.