Ukraine expects deterioration on the front by mid-May

The situation on the Ukrainian front will worsen around mid-May and early June, which will be a “difficult period”, the intelligence chief warned on Monday Ukrainian soldier Kyrylo Boudanov, amid fears of a new Russian offensive.

Russia, which has been at the initiative since the fall of 2023, claimed Monday the conquest of a village in eastern Ukraine located not far from Vougledar, a town at the junction of the Eastern and South, which it has been trying to seize for two years.

“Let's not go into too much detail, but there will be a difficult period, in the middle of May and early June”, warned Mr. Budanov, questioned about the state of the front, in an interview with the BBC's Ukrainian service.

The Russian army ” is carrying out a complex operation”, he said.

“We believe that a rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But we must understand that this. will not be catastrophic”, estimated Kyrylo Boudanov.

“Armageddon will not happen, contrary to what many are saying at the moment. But there will be problems from mid-May,” he added.

Ukraine: positions of military forces © AFP – Valentin RAKOVSKY, Sophie RAMIS, Cléa PECULIER

The Ukrainian army is going through a delicate period, facing a shortage of new recruits and ammunition due to significant delays in deliveries of Western aid, particularly American.

En In contrast, Russian troops, much more numerous and better armed, continue to push to the East and regularly claim the capture of small villages in Donbass.

In February , Moscow has captured Avdiïvka, a fortress town, and is now targeting the strategic city of Chassiv Yar.

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This city, perched on a height, extends less than 30 kilometers southeast of Kramatorsk, the main city in the Ukrainian-controlled region, which is an important rail and logistics hub for the Ukrainian army.

– Summer offensive? –

On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have “liberated” Novomykhaïlivka, about thirty kilometers from Donetsk.

This village is close to Vougledar, a mining town in the junction of the South and East fronts. At the beginning of 2023, Ukraine managed to repel an assault by the Russian army there, inflicting significant human losses.

kyiv now fears an even more powerful Russian summer offensive .

At the end of March, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces Oleksandr Pavliuk deemed such a scenario, involving a group of 100,000 Russian soldiers, “possible”.

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, already admitted in mid-April that the situation on the Eastern Front had “significantly deteriorated” recently.

A firefighter fights a fire in a residential building after a Russian strike on Kherson in Ukraine, April 22, 2024 © UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE – Handout

He claimed to see a “significant intensification” of the Russian offensive since March, leading to “tactical successes”.

The great counter -Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023 came up against powerful Russian defense lines which exhausted the resources of the Ukrainian army, without allowing the regions occupied by Russia to be liberated.

Ukraine is now facing hesitation from its Western allies, even if American military aid of 61 billion, long blocked, was finally voted by the United States House of Representatives on Saturday. The text must still be adopted by the Senate and then promulgated by President Joe Biden.

kyiv now hopes that aid from the United States will be able to reach the front very quickly. The Kremlin judged that it would change “nothing”

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