United States: Why the presidential election has big tech shaking ?

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This Tuesday, November 5, Americans will will go to the polls to elect the 47th president in the history of the United States. A vote with considerable stakes that extends far beyond the borders of the world's leading power. In Silicon Valley, tech giants are also holding their breath: the future of their regulation depends on this vote.

Many cases in progress

Because the four years of the Biden administration’s mandate have marked a real turning point in the supervision of the country’s technology giants. The approach adopted has proven to be much stricter than before, with numerous cases brought against GAFA.

In early 2023, the Department of Justice (DoJ) filed a complaint against Google, accusing it of abusing its dominant position in the online advertising sector. A few months later, it was the turn of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to file proceedings against Amazon, accusing it of multiple anti-competitive practices to establish its monopoly in online commerce.

Apple has not escaped this. In March, the DoJ indicted the Apple brand, denouncing its many practices to maintain its position in the smartphone market. Microsoft, for its part, is the subject of a vast investigation into the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Its multi-billion dollar investment in OpenAI is being closely scrutinized.

But it is important to remember that Donald Trump has also adopted a more rigorous policy towards these companies. The case opposing Google to the Department of Justice, which the web giant has just lost, was in fact brought in 2020 at the instigation of the Republican administration. The company was even found guilty of unfair monopoly, and a dismantling of its activities is, for the moment, on the table.

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Appointment of antitrust leaders

The outcome of these various cases will be known in several years, as the judicial and legislative process can last across the Atlantic. As a result, the winner of the election will be decisive in potentially influencing the final decision. Because it is the president who appoints the heads of the country's two antitrust regulatory bodies: the chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, and the head of the antitrust division of the Department of Justice.

When he took office, Joe Biden chose Lina Khan to head the FTC. This fervent opponent of the monopolies exercised by GAFAM had made a name for herself by publishing a thesis against Amazon. At the DOJ, Jonathan Kanter, also known for his aggressive approach towards big tech, was selected.

But then, what strategy would Kamala Harris and Donald Trump adopt in the event of victory ?

Two strict approaches, one more than the other

If the Democratic candidate wins, there’s a good chance that the regulatory policy will remain unchanged. After all, Kamala Harris was vice president for all four years of her term, and didn’t seem to object to the way things are going.

It’s worth noting, however, that she has ties to Silicon Valley as a former San Francisco district attorney. These connections materialized during her campaign, as she hired Karen Dunn, a Google lawyer who led her defense in the recent ad-market case, as her senior adviser. However, it’s unlikely that the candidate will decide to go against the grain of her party.

Donald Trump’s case is harder to predict. But one thing seems to be unanimous in the American press: pro-business people should be appointed to lead antitrust bodies. This would lead, among other things, to a more lenient approach to mergers and acquisitions in technology.

Because this is one of the big changes brought about by Lina Khan. The FTC chairwoman introduced new rules for reviewing major acquisitions. So much so that the body tried to block several during her term, such as Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard. She failed several times, but it shows the Democrats’ determination to no longer let companies do as they please.

An election of Donald Trump would not mean a respite, however. The former president has already been very critical of the tech giants, particularly Google and Meta, because he believes that these platforms censor him. A few days ago, he even threatened the Mountain View firm, accusing it of bias.

The fact that many prominent Silicon Valley players, such as Elon Musk or the founders of the powerful venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, have given their support to Donald Trump, nevertheless suggests that regulation will be much more flexible.

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D 'other scenarios to consider

Whether one or the other wins, there is no guarantee that he will be able to implement his policy in full. Indeed, to govern according to his ambitions, it is crucial to have a parliamentary majority in Congress, both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, which is far from guaranteed.

For two years, Joe Biden has had to deal with a Republican-majority House of Representatives, significantly limiting his ability to act. Given that the adoption of a law requires a consensus between the three parties, political blockages become inevitable. For example, the appointment of replacements for Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter in the event of a Donald Trump victory would be tempered by a Democratic Senate or House.

Still, the ongoing cases against GAFAM are unlikely to be dropped. However, the remedies could differ widely depending on which party is in power. Distrust of the AI ​​sector could grow in both cases as the technology gains prominence.

One thing seems certain: the era of the technological “wild west” is coming to an end. The tech giants are facing an increasingly complex and restrictive regulatory environment. Although one outcome seems more favorable than the other, the time has come not for transgression, but for adaptation.

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