USA. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the latest polls on the American presidential election. The results in the Swing States are in favor of the Republican.
The November 5, 2024, U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in history. Polls are extremely tight: national voting intentions give a slight advantage to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, but given the voting system, that doesn't mean much. It is important to understand that elections are won by winning the votes of the “electors”, at least 270 to access the White House. And they are won by winning the vote in a state. It is therefore in the most undecided states that this 2024 presidential election is being played out. And Donald Trump has a slight advantage in these states, called “swing states”, making him the candidate with the best momentum.
The chart below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections. Kamala Harris had a clear advantage in September, which has melted away since the second half of October, according to the results of the very latest polls.
Since the American election is actually played out state by state, these are the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election.
Polls vary easily from one day to the next. Here is what the polls show in each state at this stage, with the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gives the projections of the votes of Democrats and Republicans, updated daily on Linternaute.com:
The United States is a very divided country politically, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote for Republicans, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.
In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory to either candidate. These “swing states” are therefore the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the main ones generally wins the election. For now, in the 7 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with an increasingly pronounced advantage for the Republican.
The results of the polls in each state make it possible to identify the states where each candidate is sure to win and to consider that the outcome of the vote will be decided in the following 7 states: Pennsylvania, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (10 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes). If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors, she will be elected president. Donald Trump needs 51 electors in these 7 states to win this presidential election. Here are the voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to the compilation of Real Clear Politics, on October 28, 2024:
The user offers below an infographic measuring the chances of victory of the two candidates in the 2024 American elections. The probability of victory is calculated on a model based on 25,000 daily simulations, carried out by 270towin. The result, which is only an indicator and not a prediction of victory, is based on polls carried out in all American states and on a calculation of the percentage of overall victories for each state. The 270towiun model allows us to establish to what extent a victory in a state allows a candidate to win the final election. For example, a victory in Pennsylvania is necessary in 90.3% of simulations that result in a candidate winning. This estimation is carried out in all states of the country to arrive at a probability at the national level.
Be careful, the barometer gives a trend, but above all shows that the election is very uncertain. If a candidate only has a 40% chance of winning the election, it must be kept in mind that this is already a high probability. of victory, even if it is lower than that estimated for his opponent.
Live Campaign Latest Campaign News
October 28– À 8 days before the American presidential election, 32 million voters have already cast their ballots thanks to early voting, in the 47 out of 50 states that can already vote by mail or even in advance. These millions of votes have been recorded and even if we do not know which one was the ballot cast by each voter, we know which side each voter has claimed to belong to. Why ? Because in the United States, when you register on an electoral list, you declare your political affiliation. According to the first count, therefore, we can say that 42% of these early votes come from Democrats, 40% from Republicans and 18% from independents. Of course, nothing prevents a voter registered as a “democrat” from voting Republican and vice versa when he or she votes at the polls.
In recent days, groups of “anti-Trump” Republicans have joined Kamala Harris' campaign, demanding a vote in favor of the Democrat, even if they do not share the ideas of the current vice president. These Republicans who refuse to vote for the billionaire indicate in the American media that the latter's election would constitute a threat to the country. It is unclear what impact these upset Republicans may have on the campaign and the results, particularly in the Swing States.
27 million Americans have already voted early according to the NY Times and it's a record. The vote is on November 5, some prefer to go there before so as not to risk missing the date or not being able to go due to professional obligations in particular. In North Carolina, 30% of the state's voters have already voted early. To register to vote in the United States, you must register as a Republican, Democrat, or Independent. As explained by BFMTV, this allows us to have statistics on who voted early. With 12 days to go, Republican voters have massively used this early vote, whereas usually, it is more Democrats. These first votes could therefore for the moment be more in favor of Donald Trump. In any case, it shows a strong mobilization of the Republican electorate.
Donald Trump called on his voters to go to the polls early whereas he had held an opposite discourse in 2020, considering that it was “cheating”. The Republican candidate does not intend to deprive himself of every potential voter this time. CNN reported 3% of undecided voters, which could also explain this massive early vote.
In recent days, the poll results have been tightening. On Thursday, October 24, the American channel CNBC estimated that Donald Trump now had a 48% chance of winning compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. While not all the polls give Donald Trump the advantage, he still seems to be making progress, particularly in the Swing States.
October 25 – Arizona is one of the key states in this presidential election. The result of the vote could be close as in 2020. Joe Biden had, in fact, beaten Donald Trump by only 10,500 votes, or 0.3% of the vote. One people has great importance in this state, the Navajos. They are the largest tribe in Arizona with 131,000 members. They represent 5% of the electorate. In an election that promises to be so close, this is a vote that cannot be overlooked.
However, a 2024 report from the Democrats on the House Administration Committee found that they faced difficulties in voting, particularly given the distances they had to travel to cast their ballots and also due to language issues. Despite this, more and more of them are trying to participate in the vote because the people have strong demands. They want candidates to take their community into greater account, some of which still have difficulty accessing water or electricity. Navajo involvement in voting is also marked by a claim to their rights. They only gained the right to vote a century ago.
Donald Trump could start at a disadvantage in winning over this tribe. In 2017, he made the decision to allow uranium mining on protected lands, even though the people hold their territory dear. The environment is also a sensitive issue for the Navajo.
According to an American survey conducted by the Digital Chamber entitled “Crypto Voting Bloc”, cryptocurrency will play an important role in voters' voting. They expect actions from candidates. One in 16 potential voters, or 16% of voters, believe that cryptocurrency policy will “significantly influence their vote in the 2024 election.” This includes Democrats as well as Republicans.
21% of Donald Trump supporters believe the Republican “strongly supports crypto” and 19% believe the former president “supports crypto”. Kamala Harris supporters, 15% believe the Democratic candidate “strongly supports crypto” and 6% say she “supports crypto”.”
According to the survey, “voters are sending a clear message: They want smart, balanced regulation that protects consumers without stifling innovation.” Pro-crypto candidates may have an advantage in the polls, according to the survey. 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans said they support crypto. that a candidate's position on crypto “would have a positive impact on their likelihood of voting for them”.
October 24– Nevada is one of the key states at the heart of the election, it has six of the country's 538 major electoral colleges. Voters have been able to vote early since last Saturday. Nevada, which was acquired by the Republicans, has changed sides in the last four presidential elections. In the 2020 election, the gap was very tight. and the Democratic victory was decided by 34,000 votes. In the polls for 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of her rival in this state: 47.55% against 47.07%. However, everything can still change. According to data from the nonprofit organization Independent Voter Project, more than one in three voters in Nevada is, in fact, not affiliated with either party of the main candidates. The state's largest union, the Culinary Union, is nevertheless supporting Kamala Harris this year.
In this state, the major issue for candidates is the Latino community, representing 30% of residents and 20% of the electorate. Their vote is often very divided and scraped gradually by the Republicans, even if it remains predominantly Democrat.
The main campaign theme in Nevada revolves around the economy. Its industry depends largely on hotels and restaurants, particularly Las Vegas, and has been hit hard by the Covid crisis, still struggling to fully recover. Both candidates then proposed eliminating taxes on tips for those who work in these sectors. The country is also undermined by a housing crisis with many newcomers and therefore increasing rents.
October 23 – As CNN reports, American voters of Jewish faith or culture are very much in demand for candidates in this 2024 American election. Traditionally, the Jewish electorate is significantly more Democratic, and has been for generations. But current events and the war of retaliation waged by Israel against Hamas in Gaza and the unrest it has triggered, including protests and a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, are being highlighted by Republicans, who are hammering home to Jewish voters their promise of security and the promise that Donald Trump will end the conflict.
In an election that will likely be decided by tens of thousands of votes and in a few key states, the votes of Pennsylvania's Jewish voters could be decisive. The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University estimates that there are about 300,000 Jewish voters in the state of Pennsylvania. Matt Brooks, chairman of the Republican Jewish Coalition, is convinced that the election could swing in Pennsylvania: “The choice is clear. “You don't have to like Donald Trump, but Donald Trump will keep the Jewish community safe,” he said on CNN.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000October 22 – According to the independent organization Elections Project, more than 15 million Americans have already voted in these 2024 American elections since October 15. Voting is open for those who chose to participate in this election by mail or early voting, before November 5. According to Elections Project, the number is not insignificant: it has already reached 10% of the total participation of the 2020 election. Observers have noted record turnouts for these first days of early voting, particularly in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana.
This early vote appears to benefit the Democratic camp, according to the results of a poll conducted by Suffolk University for the media USA Today. According to this survey, Kamala Harris benefits from broad support among people who voted upstream, in North Carolina: she would have collected 63% of the votes against 34% for Donald Trump in this strategic state. But the Republican could quickly make up his delay: among those who plan to vote on November 5, Donald Trump is ahead with 52% of voting intentions against 35% for Harris. There is no indication that the voters who have already pronounced would not have gone to the polls on November 5: it is likely that this upstream vote mainly reflects a new voting habit, taken up during the Covid crisis during the previous election, which therefore seems to continue.
October 22 – The surveys have been similar for weeks: everything indicates that the election will be very close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Since everything will be played out in the 7 states considered swing states, the Washington Post-Schar School conducted a study of more than 5,000 registered voters in these 7 states, carried out in mid-October. The results released on October 22 reveal that 47% of them will definitely or probably support Harris, while 47% say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among voters who are somewhat certain to vote, 49% support Harris and 48% support Trump.
The rate of voters saying they do not plan to vote in these states has fallen from 42% to 26% over the past five months. Younger voters are more likely not to vote in the 2024 US presidential election: 43% of 18-25 year-olds do not plan to vote at this stage. Non-white voters are more likely not to vote than white voters: 34% compared to 23%.
The 21 October– Kamala Harris is viewed more favorably than Donald Trump by U.S. citizens, including among independent voters who could decide the outcome of the election in the seven swing states, according to a poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and published on October 21. The poll shows fewer Americans than they did a few months ago think Donald Trump is better on economic issues. “Harris and his running mate, Tim Walz, are viewed more positively than either Trump or J.D. Vance. A large majority of Democratic voters have a positive view of Harris and Walz, and Republican voters have a favorable view of Trump and Vance. “Independent voters are sharply divided in their opinion of Harris, while most have a negative view of Trump,” the study says.
40% of registered voters trust Kamala Harris to improve their purchasing power, including reducing the cost of groceries and gas, and 42% trust Trump on that issue. 6% trust both equally, and 12% trust neither. On housing costs, Kamala Harris enjoys the greatest confidence among voters, with 42% support compared to only 37% for Trump.
October 21– As Business Insider reports, online betting platforms, particularly Polymarket, are being closely watched by analysts, who seem to give real credence to the projections they make. Betting markets reflect how participants perceive the probability of winning, rather than immediate sentiment and the true opinions of voters. But investors are still looking at prediction market data and financial movements as real indicators. And they all favor a Trump victory. Broader financial indicators, such as the rise in stocks tied to Trump’s business ventures, are also being watched closely. Those of Trump Media and Technology Group jumped 86% in October.
Enough to make both candidates dizzy. According to current data from Election Betting Odds, which aggregates information from major markets, Trump has a 57% chance of winning. This is his best score since July 29, when he was given around 48% at the end of September. Other betting sites confirm this trend, with Betfair estimating Trump's chances at around 58%, Kalshi at 57% and Smarkets at 58%. On Polymarket, the odds have changed considerably in recent weeks, with Trump now having a 60% chance of winning compared to 40% for Harris.
"Yes she can" is how Barack Obama gave his support to Kamala Harris, believing that she was "more ready for the job than any presidential candidate ever was". If he has already committed himself solo, he will be in the company of Kamala Harris on October 24 in Georgia.
The former president's wife is not to be outdone. According to information from several American media outlets, relayed by Le Monde, Michelle Obama will officially participate in the Democratic candidate's campaign. The former First Lady is expected to participate in a meeting with Kamala Harris next week. On October 26, she is expected to be in Michigan alongside the Democratic candidate, an important date since it is the day when early voting takes place. will begin in this key state. Three days later, Michelle Obama will be at another rally organized by her NGO When We All Vote in Atlanta, Georgia.
By highlighting the former presidential couple, Kamala Harris's staff is trying to stack the odds in its favor. While Barack Obama has retained his notoriety, the former First Lady still enjoys particular popularity. It is also a card to play to try to mobilize the African-American electorate and prevent one part from escaping Kamala Harris.
October 18, 2024 – Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning in Michigan this Friday, which is one of the key states in the race for the White House. Michigan is home to a large number of Arab-Americans. In this state is the city of Dearborn, with the highest density of of the Arab-Muslim population in America. While its inhabitants traditionally tend to support the Democratic camp, Michigan was won by Joe Biden in 2020, the situation has now changed following the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
They deplore, in fact, the Biden administration around the issue of war in the Middle East. The latter has given almost unconditional support to Israel. In the same vein, this differentiates Kamala Harris from one of her opponents, Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. Even if she has no chance of winning large voters in this election, the environmentalist could steal votes from the Democratic camp following her position in favor of Palestine. If the state's vote is close, it could swing the scales in Donald Trump's favor.
The latter will also hold a rally this Friday in Detroit, a former stronghold of the automobile industry. According to his campaign team, the line held by Donald Trump in Michigan will be on how “families have been “crushed by inflation, under Kamala's failed leadership.” Both candidates could also run into trouble with the “Uncommited,” a movement of voters with a strong presence in Michigan who believe that neither candidate deserves their vote.
READ MORE Learn more
Studies conducted on electoral sociology in the US highlight clear divisions between supporters of Kamala Harris and those of Donald Trump. The Pew Research Center, in a study published in September, highlights this:
© Pew Research Center
Voters are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will serve in the White House for the next four years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States; instead, they will elect 538 electors based on the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These are the voters, who also have a political color – between blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025.
Three other candidates are in the race and are collecting a few crumbs in the voting intentions – which explains why the total between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 100: Cornel West, candidate of the People's Party, an independent political party; Chase Olivier, the candidate of the Libertarian Party; Randall Terry, candidate of the Constitution Party and Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. All these candidates have no chance of being elected, given the weakness of their support and their financing. But above all, American political life is entirely structured around two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, which provides a framework that ensures both the predominance of two clearly opposed voices and the assurance of a long-term alternation.
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the presidential election.
Photo: Patrick Doyle The Canadian Press A Conservative government in Ottawa would eliminate the GST…
Photo: Jacques Boissinot The Canadian Press D’Arcy-McGee MP Elisabeth Prass wrote on X that she…
© Strava This October 27, a vast survey of the Worldrevealed that the Strava platform…
© Nejc Košir/Pexels An international team of researchers has just unraveled the mysteries of the…
"Lottery Result (FDJ): the draw for this Monday, October 28, 2024, 2 million euros at…
After the death of the young woman, two investigations were opened, one by the Montpellier…