USA. The campaign for the 2024 American presidential election is getting active. In the latest polls, Donald Trump is tending to take a slight advantage. The results of this election are still expected to be very close. The United States is now living to the rhythm of the campaign of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The two candidates the 2024 presidential election are now chaining together meetings, public statements, and specifying their programmatic proposals. So far, the results of the polls on this American election show that it is one of the most uncertain in history. According to the latest voting intention studies, the Democratic vice president has garnered around 49% of voting intentions against 48% for her opponent on a national scale over the last few days. But the poll results are very tight in the few states that will be decisive for this 2024 presidential election, so much so that Donald Trump appears just as capable of winning this election as his Democratic rival. Or even more now. Since Joe Biden's withdrawal, the new Democratic candidate has enjoyed unprecedented popularity among Democrats. Polls show that she is garnering more voting intentions than Joe Biden did. The graph below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections. The American election is actually being played out State by State, each of them giving the candidates a share of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election. Polls vary easily from day to day, but the trend and momentum are in favor of the Democratic candidate. Here's what the polls are showing in each state at this point. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily on Linternaute.com: The United States is a very politically divided country, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote Republican, such as Montana or the Midwestern states. In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory to either candidate. These “swing states” are the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the key ones usually wins the election. For now, in the 7 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with an increasingly pronounced advantage for the Republican. The results of the polls in each state make it possible to identify the states where each candidate is sure to win and to consider that the outcome of the vote will be decided in the following 7 states: Pennsylvania, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (10 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes). If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors, she will be elected president. Donald Trump needs 51 electors in these 7 states to win this presidential election. Here are the voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to the compilation of Real Clear Politics, on October 23, 2024: The user offers below an infographic measuring the chances of victory of the two candidates in the 2024 American elections. The probability of victory is calculated on a model based on 25,000 daily simulations, carried out by 270towin. The result, which is only an indicator and not a prediction of victory, is based on polls carried out in all American states and on a calculation of the percentage of overall victories for each state. The 270towiun model allows us to establish to what extent a victory in a state allows a candidate to win the final election. For example, a victory in Pennsylvania is necessary in 90.3% of simulations that result in a candidate winning. This estimation is carried out in all the states of the country to arrive at a probability of national scale. Be careful, the barometer gives a trend, but above all shows that the election is very uncertain. If a candidate only has a 40% chance of winning the election, it must be kept in mind that this is already a high probability of victory, even if it is lower than that estimated for his opponent. Latest campaign news October 25 – Arizona is one of the key states in this presidential election. The result of the vote could be announced as close as in 2020. Joe Biden had, in fact, beaten Donald Trump by only 10,500 votes, or 0.3% of the votes. One people has great importance in this state, the Navajos. They are the largest tribe in Arizona with 131,000 members. They represent 5% of the electorate. In an election that promises to be so close, this is a vote that cannot be overlooked. However, a 2024 report by Democrats on the House Administration Committee found that they faced challenges in voting, particularly given the distances they had to travel to cast their ballots and also due to language issues. Despite this, more and more of them are trying to participate in the vote because the people have strong demands. They want candidates to take their communities more into account, some of which still have difficulty accessing water or electricity. Navajo engagement in voting is also marked by a claim to their rights. They only won the right to vote a century ago. Donald Trump may be at a disadvantage in winning over this tribe. In 2017, he made the decision to allow uranium mining on protected lands, even though the people hold their territory dear. The environment is also a sensitive chord for the Navajos. According to a US survey conducted by the Digital Chamber called “Crypto Voting Bloc”, cryptocurrency will play a significant role in voters' voting. They expect action from candidates. One in 16 potential voters, or 16% of voters, believe that cryptocurrency policy “will significantly influence their vote in the 2024 elections”. There are Democrats as well as Republicans. 21% of Donald Trump supporters believe that the Republican “strongly supports crypto” and 19% believe that the former president “supports crypto”. On the side of Kamala Harris supporters, 15% believe that the Democratic candidate “strongly supports crypto” and 6% of them say she “supports crypto”. According to the survey, “voters are sending a clear message: They want smart, balanced regulation that protects consumers without stifling innovation.” Pro-crypto candidates may have an advantage in the polls, according to the survey. 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans said they support crypto. that a candidate's position on crypto “would have a positive impact on their likelihood of voting for them”. October 24– Nevada is one of the key states at the heart of the election, it has six of the country's 538 major electoral colleges. Voters have been able to vote early since last Saturday. Nevada, which was acquired by the Republicans, has changed sides in the last four presidential elections. In the 2020 election, the gap was very tight. and the Democratic victory was decided by 34,000 votes. In the polls for 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of her rival in this state: 47.55% against 47.07%. However, everything can still change. According to data from the nonprofit organization Independent Voter Project, more than one in three voters in Nevada is, in fact, not affiliated with either party of the main candidates. The state's largest union, the Culinary Union, is nevertheless supporting Kamala Harris this year. In this state, the major issue for candidates is the Latino community, representing 30% of residents and 20% of the electorate. Their vote is often very divided and scraped gradually by the Republicans, even if it remains predominantly Democrat. The main campaign theme in Nevada revolves around the economy. Its industry depends largely on hotels and restaurants, particularly Las Vegas, and has been hit hard by the Covid crisis, still struggling to fully recover. Both candidates then proposed eliminating taxes on tips for those who work in these sectors. The country is also undermined by a housing crisis with many newcomers and therefore increasing rents. October 23 – As CNN reports, American voters of Jewish faith or culture are very much in demand for candidates in this 2024 American election. Traditionally, the Jewish electorate is significantly more Democratic, and has been for generations. But current events and the war of retaliation waged by Israel against Hamas in Gaza and the unrest it has triggered, including protests and a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, are being highlighted by Republicans, who are hammering home to Jewish voters their promise of security and the promise that Donald Trump will end the conflict. In an election that will likely be decided by tens of thousands of votes and in a few key states, the votes of Pennsylvania's Jewish voters could be decisive. The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University estimates that there are about 300,000 Jewish voters in the state of Pennsylvania. Matt Brooks, chairman of the Republican Jewish Coalition, is convinced that the election could swing in Pennsylvania: “The choice is clear. “You don't have to like Donald Trump, but Donald Trump will keep the Jewish community safe,” he said on CNN. October 22 – According to the independent organization Elections Project, more than 15 million Americans have already voted in these 2024 American elections since October 15. Voting is open for those who chose to participate in this election by mail or early voting, before November 5. According to Elections Project, the number is not insignificant: it has already reached 10% of the total participation of the 2020 election. Observers have noted record turnouts for these first days of early voting, particularly in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana. This early vote appears to benefit the Democratic camp, according to the results of a poll conducted by Suffolk University for the media USA Today. According to this survey, Kamala Harris benefits from broad support among people who voted upstream, in North Carolina: she would have collected 63% of the votes against 34% for Donald Trump in this strategic state. But the Republican could quickly make up his delay: among those who plan to vote on November 5, Donald Trump is ahead with 52% of voting intentions against 35% for Harris. There is no indication that the voters who have already pronounced would not have gone to the polls on November 5: it is likely that this upstream vote mainly reflects a new voting habit, taken up during the Covid crisis during the previous election, which therefore seems to continue. October 22 – The surveys have been similar for weeks: everything indicates that the election will be very close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Since everything will be played out in the 7 states considered swing states, the Washington Post-Schar School conducted a study of more than 5,000 registered voters in these 7 states, carried out in mid-October. The results released on October 22 reveal that 47% of them will definitely or probably support Harris, while 47% say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among voters who are somewhat certain to vote, 49% support Harris and 48% support Trump. The rate of voters saying they do not plan to vote in these states has fallen from 42% to 26% over the past five months. Younger voters are more likely not to vote in the 2024 US presidential election: 43% of 18-25 year-olds do not plan to vote at this point. Non-white voters are more likely not to vote than white voters: 34% versus 23%. October 21 40% of registered voters trust Kamala Harris to improve their purchasing power, including reducing the cost of groceries and gas, and 42% trust Trump on this issue. 6% trust both equally, and 12% trust neither. On housing costs, Kamala Harris enjoys the greatest trust from voters, with 42% support compared to just 37% for Trump. October 21– As Business Insider reports, online betting platforms, particularly Polymarket, are being closely watched by analysts, who seem to give real credence to the projections they make. Betting markets reflect how participants perceive the probability of winning, rather than immediate sentiment and the true opinions of voters. But investors are still looking at prediction market data and financial movements as real indicators. And they all favor a Trump victory. Broader financial indicators, such as the rise in stocks tied to Trump’s business ventures, are also being watched closely. Those of Trump Media and Technology Group jumped 86% in October. Enough to make both candidates dizzy. According to current data from Election Betting Odds, which aggregates information from major markets, Trump has a 57% chance of winning. This is his best score since July 29, when he was given around 48% at the end of September. Other betting sites confirm this trend, with Betfair estimating Trump's chances at around 58%, Kalshi at 57% and Smarkets at 58%. On Polymarket, the odds have changed considerably in recent weeks, with Trump now having a 60% chance of winning compared to 40% for Harris. "Yes she can" is how Barack Obama gave his support to Kamala Harris, believing that she was "more ready for the job than any presidential candidate ever was". If he has already committed himself solo, he will be in the company of Kamala Harris on October 24 in Georgia. The former president's wife is not to be outdone. According to information from several American media outlets, relayed by Le Monde, Michelle Obama will officially participate in the Democratic candidate's campaign. The former First Lady should participate in a meeting with Kamala Harris next week. On October 26, she should be in Michigan alongside the Democratic candidate, an important date since it is the day when the early vote will begin in this key state. Three days later, Michelle Obama will be at another rally organized by her NGO When We All Vote in Atlanta, Georgia. By highlighting the former presidential couple, Kamala Harris's staff is trying to stack the odds in its favor. While Barack Obama has retained his notoriety, the former First Lady still enjoys particular popularity. It is also a card to play to try to mobilize the African-American electorate and prevent one part from escaping Kamala Harris. October 18, 2024< /strong>– Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning in Michigan this Friday, which is one of the key states in the race for the White House. Michigan is home to a large number of Arab-Americans. In this state is the city of Dearborn, with the highest density of Arab-Muslim population in America. While traditionally its residents tend to support the Democratic camp, Michigan was won by Joe Biden in 2020, the situation has now changed. following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. They deplore, in fact, the Biden administration around the issue of war in the Middle East. The latter has given almost unconditional support to Israel. In the same vein, this differentiates Kamala Harris from one of her opponents, Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. Even if she has no chance of winning large voters in this election, the environmentalist could steal votes from the Democratic camp following her position in favor of Palestine. If the votes are close in the state, it could tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump. The latter will also hold a rally this Friday in Detroit, a former stronghold of the automobile industry. According to his campaign team, the line held by Donald Trump in Michigan will be on how “families have been “crushed by inflation, under Kamala's failed leadership.” Both candidates could also run into opposition from the “Uncommited,” a movement of voters with a strong presence in Michigan who believe that neither candidate deserves their vote. October 17 Elon Musk has become a vocal supporter of Donald Trump this year, convinced that his business could flourish in the Republican's second term but very upset if Democrat Kamala Harris wins. In early October, the Tesla and Space X founder had climbed on the stage of a Donald Trump rally, demonstrating his intention to get involved in his victory and even declaring that he would be ready to govern alongside him. “I want to make America great again. And the values that made America great are meritocracy, work and skills. “We need to change our team, because the Republican Party is the party of meritocracy,” he said recently on X. October 16 2024– Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' campaigns seem to have come to a standstill, as if neither candidate could benefit from any momentum. For a few days now, the polls have not budged. They are all within the margin of error in key states. We are in a plateau phase. There are still a few days left for each candidate to be more and more aggressive. Knowing that we have started voting, including in key states, including Pennsylvania, where “The residents are voting en masse,” explains Marie-Cécile Naves, research director at IRIS, on Wednesday. For this expert on American political life, we should expect a soap opera with a complex ending, with a situation that will undoubtedly be very tense on election day. “It is very likely that we will not know the result on November 6. The last time, the result was on November 7. There will be disputes if certain states are won or lost at “a few thousand votes close,” explains this researcher, who fears that Donald Trump will not immediately recognize his defeat if he is indeed beaten by Kamala Harris. October 16, 2024– In Georgia, early voting began this Tuesday, October 15, three weeks before the national election. And it is a record in terms of participation for a first day of early voting: 216,899 ballots were counted at 4 p.m., according to Gabriel Sterling, an election official in Georgia. As a reminder, in 2020, Donald Trump was indicted for attempting to reverse illegally the results of the presidential election in this state. During the previous presidential election, and after 30 years of Republican voting, Georgia swung to the Democrats by 11,800 votes, or 0.23 percentage points. A vote that, like this year, will be largely determined by the political color of the city of Atlanta. With its suburbs, it represents half of the state's population. The result of the American presidential election in the state of Georgia appears to be one of the closest of the 7 swing states. And the outcome of the vote in this state is of capital importance: it will allow its winner to win 16 electors, decisive in the race for the White House. For now, Donald Trump enjoys a slight advantage with 48.4% of voting intentions against 47.8% for his Democratic competitor Kamala Harris, according to the compilation by Real Clear Politics, on October 14, 2024. Linternaute offers from this Tuesday, October 15, coverage of the main highlights of the American campaign. This news feed allows you to follow the key moments before the November 5 election. October 15, 2024– The French are much less divided than the Americans on this American election: according to a YouGov poll for Linternaute, 55% of the French would prefer Kamala Harris to win this election and become the next president of the United States. Only 19% of them want Donald Trump to win (26% do not have an opinion). It should be noted, however, that the billionaire and former president is clearly more appreciated of the youngest French people (35% of 18-34 year-olds want her to win – almost double the average of those surveyed, 37% want Kamala Harris to lead the country). Unsurprisingly, it is the supporters of the National Rally who are the most numerous to want Donald Trump to win (29%, compared to 22% in 2020). However, 47% of them want Kamala Harris to be the next president of the United States. The French, on the other hand, are quite pessimistic about Kamala Harris's ability, if she wins this American election, to weigh in on the resolution of the main armed conflicts. Only 33% of those surveyed think that she would be able to “provide solutions to the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.” Find out more Studies conducted on electoral sociology in the US highlight clear divisions between supporters of Kamala Harris and those of Donald Trump. The Pew Research Center, in a study published in September, highlights this: © Pew Research Center Voters are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will serve in the White House for the next four years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States; instead, they will elect 538 electors based on the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These are the voters, who also have a political color – between blue for Democrats and red for Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025. 
What are the results of the polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris ?
Navajo vote could swing the outcome in Arizona
This criterion that will count for a lot for one in seven Americans
The Latino vote, a major issue in Nevada
Jewish voters could swing the Pennsylvania election… and the general election
Already 15 million voters in the presidential election.. and a trend
A major poll in the swing states indicates that the election will be… close
Harris has a better image than Trump in the United States, according to a poll
Michelle Obama very present in Kamala Harris' campaign
Harris and Trump in Michigan: the conflict between Israel and Hamas, a major issue in this State
Elon Musk donates $75 million to Donald Trump's presidential campaign
“We are in a plateau phase” in the Harris-Trump campaign
Voting begins in Georgia, already a record turnout
The French want Kamala Harris to win the presidential election
Who votes for Kamala Harris ? Who votes for Donald Trump ?
When is the 2024 US presidential election taking place ?
Who are the other candidates for the 2024 american presidential election ?
Apart from the candidates of the two major American parties, one man has entered the presidential race, confident of his chances. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., nephew of former American president John Fitzgerald Kennedy, is running as an independent candidate. Although he had initially considered participating in the Democratic Party primaries, he ultimately gave up on this possibility. In October 2023, the heir to the famous American dynasty finally ended his campaign to officially support Donald Trump. In the event of a new victory in the presidential election, Donald Trump has also said he is ready to offer the future ex-candidate a position within his administration.
Three other candidates are in the race and are collecting a few crumbs in the voting intentions – which explains why the total between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 100: Cornel West, candidate of the People's Party, an independent political party; Chase Olivier, the candidate of the Libertarian Party; Randall Terry, candidate of the Constitution Party and Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. All these candidates have no chance of being elected, given the weakness of their support and their financing. But above all, American political life is entirely structured around two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, which provides a framework that ensures both the predominance of two clearly opposed voices and the assurance of a long-term alternation.
How American elections work ?
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the election.