The 2024 presidential election is actually being played out in 7 states where the poll results are very close. But pollsters fear that Donald Trump's score is greatly underestimated.
It is impossible to predict the results of the American presidential election. The latest polls show that everything will be decided by a hair's breadth. And they are even disconcerting: they now outline a status quo for more than a week in voting intentions, as if everything had frozen. Not detecting any “dynamics” is a real headache for pollsters, it could hide an undetectable trend for one or the other of the candidates.
One of the latest polls, conducted by NBC News, places pollsters in the worst-case scenario: with D-1, no favorite and no momentum is emerging and it is even the incredible stability of voting intentions that is surprising. In this latest survey, Kamala Harris obtains 49% of voting intentions, while Donald Trump obtains the same score, also given 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are unsure of their choice.
Voting intentions at the national level have so far given a very slight advantage to the Democratic candidate, but given the voting system, this does not mean much. It is important to understand that the election is won by winning the votes of the “electors”, at least 270 to access the White House. And they are won by snatching the majority votes in each state.
It is therefore in the most undecided states that this 2024 presidential election is being played out. And Donald Trump would this time have a slight advantage in these states, called “swing states”. But on this ground too, the vagueness dominates, since the results of the polls in the swing states are, for their part, almost all within the margin of error.
The latest surveys indicate that undecided voters would lean more towards Kamala Harris, but observers also know that models tend to underestimate the Trump vote. Most American pollsters therefore fear that the Republican vote will be much stronger than predicted by their models (as in 2016 and 2020), which is causing panic among some experts, whose projection work, over several weeks, could be completely discredited. at the time of counting.
What are the results of the polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris ?
The chart below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections. Kamala Harris had an advantage that has melted away since the second half of October, according to the results of the very latest polls.
Since the American election is actually played out state by state, these are the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election. Here is what the polls show in each State at at this stage, with the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gives the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily on Linternaute.com:
The United States is a very divided country politically, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote for Republicans, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.
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In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory to either candidate. These “swing states” are therefore the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the main ones generally wins the election. For now, in the 7 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with an increasingly pronounced advantage for the Republican.
The results of the polls in each state make it possible to identify the states where each candidate is sure to win and to consider that the outcome of the election will be decided in the following 7 states: Pennsylvania, Arizona (11 electors), Nevada (6 electors), Wisconsin (10 electors), Michigan (10 electors), North Carolina (16 electors) and Georgia (16 electors).
- If Kamala Harris succeeds in secure 44 electors, she will be elected president.
- Donald Trump needs 51 electors in these 7 states to win this presidential election.
What do the latest surveys say in the key swing states ? Here are the voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to the compilation of Real Clear Politics, on November 4, 2024:
The user offers below an infographic measuring the chances of victory of the two candidates in the 2024 American elections. The probability of victory is calculated on a model based on 25,000 daily simulations, carried out by 270towin. The result, which is only an indicator and not a prediction of victory, is based on polls carried out in all American states and on a calculation of the percentage of overall victories for each state. The 270towiun model allows us to establish to what extent a victory in a state allows a candidate to win the final election. For example, a victory in Pennsylvania is necessary in 90.3% of simulations that result in a candidate winning. This estimation is carried out in all states of the country to arrive at a probability at the national level.
Be careful, the barometer gives a trend, but above all shows that the election is very uncertain. If a candidate only has a 40% chance of winning the election, it must be kept in mind that this is already a high probability. of victory, even if it is weaker than that estimated for his opponent.
Latest campaign news
Kamala Harris leads in Iowa, which could ultimately swing to the Democrats ?
November 4, 2024 –What if Iowa became one of the key states ? A poll published Saturday, November 2, has apparently shaken up the established order. Deeply red, meaning committed to the Republican cause, Iowa has been won twice in the past by Donald Trump, even by an eight-point lead in the last presidential election in 2020. But while it was far from being considered a battleground, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll said Saturday that Democrat Kamala Harris could edge Republican Donald Trump there, winning 47 percent of the vote, to 44 percent.
In the conclusions of this poll, we learn that it is women, particularly older ones and those who are politically independent, who would allow this turnaround, which is unexpected to say the least, in favor of Kamala Harris. But as Politico reports, the Democrat's campaign leaders are cautious. “What we see overall is “energy and momentum,” they reacted soberly on Sunday evening. Politico reports that overall, very few Democrats think their candidate has a real chance in Iowa. On the other hand, many hope that this poll reveals a favorable trend for Kamala Harris in neighboring key states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
November 4, 2024– The latest poll conducted by NBC News on this 2024 presidential election is quite confusing and places pollsters in the worst-case scenario: D-1, there is no favorite and no dynamic is emerging. Worse, it is even the incredible stability of voting intentions that surprises pollsters. While the day of the vote is this Tuesday, the NBC News poll shows that Harris obtains 49% of voting intentions, while Trump obtains the same score, given also at 49 percent. Only 2 percent of voters say they are unsure about their choice. “That's very stable data from October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. “Each side is also locked in as possible and they don't move,” McInturff insists to the media.
The poll also found that there are still huge differences in voting intentions by gender and social group. The survey found that Harris is much more popular than her rival Trump among black voters (87%-9%), younger voters under 30 (57%-41%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-43%). Trump, meanwhile, he leads by a wide margin among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and white voters without a college degree (64%-34%).
But what continues to emerge as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap in the Harris-Trump electorate, with women significantly more supportive of Harris (57%-41%) and men more broadly supportive of proportion Trump (58%-40%).
Another factor to consider on the eve of the election: the fear of pollsters—professional, not partisan—that Donald Trump’s vote is being grossly underestimated. If that’s the case this year, as it was in 2016 and 2020, then pollsters will be definitively seen as incapable of producing a reliable model of opinion in an election in which Donald Trump is participating. The shared concern by pollsters is this: a segment of the Republican electorate refuses to participate in opinion surveys. The rejection of polls is such that the models in many swing states are considered unreliable by experts, who believe that there are significant biases in their projections. “In 2020, many voters called to participate in a poll were shouting at us, “Trump!” and hung up,” without being counted, Don Levy, director of the Siena University Research Institute, told AFP. Pollsters have since tried to implement adjustments, including offering respondents the option of responding online or by phone, to better reach young people or older, more conservative respondents. Siena also uses other variables, including race, age and likelihood of voting. But this one certainty emerges: the models are not robust enough.
À who will benefit from the youth vote ?
Sunday November 3. &A few days before the American presidential election, an important and delicate piece of data to analyze must be understood by both candidates with the greatest care: the youth vote. Indeed, a relatively large gap exists based on gender. Young female voters are more progressive, while young male voters tend more towards more conservative ideas.
According to a survey conducted by the University of Harvard University, 70% of young women between 18 and 29 years old plan to vote for Kamala Harris, 23% for Donald Trump. At the same time, 53% of young men say they want to vote for Harris, and 36% for the former president of the United States. An already significant gap.
Another significant fact is that young women vote more than young American men. A poll produced by the American channel NBC is very clear on the issue. In the same age group, 59% of young women say they will vote for Harris, only 26% for Trump. On the young men's side, it is almost a perfect equality: Harris would collect 42% of the votes, against 40% for Trump. Another important fact is that since World War II in the United States, Generation Z (born between 1990 and 2010) includes more women than men (54% versus 46%). A phenomenon that could therefore benefit Kamala Harris in the youth vote on November 5.
A final poll favorable to Kamala Harris, but..
Saturday 2 November. While the latest New York Times poll is relatively encouraging for Kamala Harris, it also reflects a trend that is starting to last: the gap remains extremely tight at the national level between the two competitors. According to this latest poll, dated November 1, the Democratic candidate is in the lead in voting intentions with 49%, ahead of the former president of the United States (48%). A gap that has tended to stabilize for more than a week now, in this final stretch of the campaign. We have to go back to October 22 to find a two-point gap between the two candidates, and even back to October 14 to see a three-percentage-point lead for Kamala Harris (50% versus 47% at the time).
In reality, neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris leads by more than a percentage point, nationally or in swing states, except in Georgia, where Trump appears to have built up a large enough lead to no longer be a concern. Nevertheless, “our polling averages show that Trump has gained in recent weeks. He has narrowed the gap to nationwide and currently has a very slim advantage in states with 270 electoral votes, the New York Times reports. Enough to win the election ? Impossible to say at this point.
Focus on the Latino vote in Pennsylvania, the hot spot of this election
The 1st November. The 2024 American presidential election could well be played out in a swing state, Pennsylvania. And more particularly among a community, Latinos. In this state, it is the turnout that should make the difference in knowing who, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will prevail and take a big step towards the White House. Today, nearly 600,000 Hispanics are likely to participate in the election and therefore vote in Pennsylvania. An impressive windfall of votes that both candidates do not want to miss.
“This is not an electorate won over to a particular cause,” says Aurore Portet, professor at Sciences Po Lyon and specialist in American politics, in the columns of BFMTV. This is why the two candidates do not hesitate to go to Pennsylvania to try to tip the scales in their favor. The comparison of Puerto Rico to a “floating island of orders” by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe during a Trump rally could leave its mark. For now, according to Real Clear Politics, Donald Trump has 48.1% of voting intentions in the state, slightly ahead of Kamala Harris (47.8%).
While a triumph in Pennsylvania is no guarantee of final victory, it certainly puts us on the right track. Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020… Which side will Pennsylvania lean towards in 2024? ? The fifth most populous state in the country will allow the winning candidate to win no fewer than 19 electorate seats. A state in which one in eight residents is food insecure. The Democrats could well die from a slight advantage: Joe Biden, the former candidate for The presidential candidate grew up in the working-class city of Scranton, Pennsylvania. An asset that the latter, including Kamala Harris, should highlight in an attempt to overtake Trump in the final stretch.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000A clear trend is emerging: the election will be decided in Pennsylvania
October 31 – What uncertainty! It is in a very thick fog on the verdict of this American election 2024 that a trend is still emerging: the voters of the 7 Swing States clearly have the fate of this presidential election in their hands. The latest surveys in these states now reveal an electoral fact, as analyzed by the American media Forbes: Kamala Harris has an advantage in the Swing States Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump is now given winner in the swing states of the Southeast and Arizona. Which means that the outcome of the entire election is decided in the state of Pennsylvania, which gives the winner 19 at-large seats.
According to the most recent polls, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage in Pennsylvania. If we follow the lessons of the emerging trend, he therefore appears to benefit from a slight advantage (Trump is given 47% to 46% in a Quinnipiac poll, 47%-46% in a Monmouth poll, and the Republican is ahead of the Democrat by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average). The fact remains that the gap is too small to say that Donald Trump is the favorite in these elections, all of this remains within the margins of error of the polling models.
Pennsylvania is a very divided state politically. In Philadelphia, the state capital and the sixth-largest city in the United States, 80% of residents voted for Biden four years ago. These urban dwellers remain overwhelmingly Democrats. But in the campaign, it is clearly Donald Trump who is leading the voting intentions. Everything could therefore be decided in the mid-urban, mid-rural counties like Northampton. It is not impossible that this territory will be the key to the results of this election.
A poll with rather encouraging results for Kamala Harris
October 30, 2024– The latest New York Times/Siena College poll has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris at 48 percent nationally, which isn't really a determining factor, since the election is played out in the swing stats. But according to this study, Kamala Harris has a clearer margin of progression than Donald Trump is estimated to have. About 15 percent of voters still say they are undecided. a few days before the vote, but these citizens are still more inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate: Kamala Harris is in fact in the lead in this electoral group, with 42% against 32% of voting intentions. Just two weeks ago, it was Donald Trump who had a slight lead among undecided voters, with 36% against 35%.
The percentage of Americans who believe that Mr. Trump, 78, is too old to be president remains at 41%, virtually unchanged from the July survey, even after a series of disjointed campaign speeches that have sparked a wave of questions.
The New York Times/Siena College poll also gives a trend on the 9% of Americans who have already voted: estimates of these 20 million or so votes lean heavily in favor of Kamala Harris, 59% to 40% according to the poll conducted on a representative sample. This is not surprising, since it corresponds to the advantage that Democrats have historically enjoyed on early voting and mail-in voting, although there are signs that this year, unlike in 2020, Republicans are voting early in unusually high numbers.
The poll also shows that the vote is shaping up to be very gendered : Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among women, with voting intentions of around 54% against 42%, while Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris among men, with voting intentions of 55% against 41%.
For Kamala or against Trump ? The enlightening results of a poll on the Democratic vote
October 29 – This presidential election is clearly not like the previous ones, as the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House arouses the radical rejection of a large part of Americans. If the billionaire collects nearly 50% of voting intentions – like his rival – the Democrats are much more numerous in fearing a defeat of their camp. This is reflected in the polls: a CNN survey sheds light on this point. If Donald Trump's supporters vote to “express their support” to the Republican (73%) rather than to “express opposition” to Kamala Harris (27%), 45% of Kamala Harris voters say they are voting for her primarily to “block Donald Trump”.
This survey of all American voters, all parties combined, also reveals a general perception of the candidates. According to Americans, Kamala Harris, more than Donald Trump, cares about “people like them” (43% Harris vs. 37% Trump), is “honest” and “trustworthy” (41% Harris vs. 29% Trump) and “will put the interests of the country before her own” (45% Harris vs. 39% Trump). Donald Trump is seen as having more qualities to “bring the kind of change the country needs” (44% Trump vs. 38% Harris). A point that could be predominant for this American presidential election, while the country is affected by a crisis of purchasing power and a crisis of confidence. According to this same survey, in fact, 49% of citizens declare that their financial situation is “worse today than a year ago”; only 32% believe that “things are going well in the United States today”.
October 28– À 8 days before the American presidential election, 32 million voters have already cast their ballots thanks to early voting, in the 47 out of 50 states that can already vote by mail or even in advance. These millions of votes have been recorded and even if we do not know which one was the ballot cast by each voter, we know which side each voter has claimed to belong to. Why ? Because in the United States, when you register on an electoral list, you declare your political affiliation. According to the first count, therefore, we can say that 42% of these early votes come from Democrats, 40% from Republicans and 18% from independents. Of course, nothing prevents a voter registered as a “democrat” from voting Republican and vice versa when he or she votes at the polls.
In recent days, groups of “anti-Trump” Republicans have joined Kamala Harris' campaign, demanding a vote in favor of the Democrat, even if they do not share the ideas of the current vice president. These Republicans who refuse to vote for the billionaire indicate in the American media that the latter's election would constitute a threat to the country. It is unclear what impact these upset Republicans may have on the campaign and the results, particularly in the Swing States.
Early Votes for Donald Trump ?
27 million Americans have already voted early according to the NY Times and it's a record. The vote is on November 5, some prefer to go there before so as not to risk missing the date or not being able to go due to professional obligations in particular. In North Carolina, 30% of the state's voters have already voted early. To register to vote in the United States, you must register as a Republican, Democrat, or Independent. As explained by BFMTV, this allows us to have statistics on who voted early. With 12 days to go, Republican voters have massively used this early vote, whereas usually, it is more Democrats. These first votes could therefore for the moment be more in favor of Donald Trump. In any case, it shows a strong mobilization of the Republican electorate.
Donald Trump called on his voters to go to the polls early whereas he had held an opposite discourse in 2020, considering that it was “cheating”. The Republican candidate does not intend to deprive himself of every potential voter this time. CNN reported 3% of undecided voters, which could also explain this massive early vote.
In recent days, the poll results have been tightening. On Thursday, October 24, the American channel CNBC estimated that Donald Trump now has a 48% chance of winning compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. While not all the polls give the advantage to Donald Trump, the latter still seems to be making progress, especially in the Swing States.
The Navajo vote could swing the result in Arizona
October 25 – Arizona is one of the key states in this presidential election. The result of the vote could be announced as close as in 2020. Joe Biden had, in fact, beaten Donald Trump by only 10,500 votes, or 0.3% of the votes. One people has great importance in this state, the Navajos. They are the largest tribe in Arizona with 131,000 members. They represent 5% of the electorate. In an election that promises to be so close, this is a vote that cannot be overlooked.
However, a 2024 report from the Democrats on the House Administration Committee found that they faced difficulties in voting, particularly given the distances they had to travel to cast their ballots and also due to language issues. Despite this, more and more of them are trying to participate in the vote because the people have strong demands. They want candidates to take their community into greater account, some of which still have difficulty accessing water or electricity. Navajo involvement in voting is also marked by a claim to their rights. They only gained the right to vote a century ago.
Donald Trump may be at a disadvantage in winning over this tribe. In 2017, he made the decision to allow uranium mining on protected lands, even though the people hold their territory dear. The environment is also a sensitive chord for the Navajos.
This criterion that will count for a lot for one in seven Americans
According to a US survey conducted by the Digital Chamber called “Crypto Voting Bloc”, cryptocurrency will play a significant role in voters' voting. They expect action from candidates. One in 16 potential voters, or 16% of voters, believe that cryptocurrency policy “will significantly influence their vote in the 2024 elections”. There are Democrats as well as Republicans.
21% of Donald Trump supporters believe the Republican “strongly supports crypto” and 19% believe the former president “supports crypto”. As for Kamala Harris supporters, 15% believe the Democratic candidate “strongly supports crypto” and 6% of them say she “supports crypto”.
According to the survey, “voters are sending a clear message: They want smart, “balanced” regulation that protects consumers without “stifling innovation”.” According to the survey, “pro-crypto candidates” may have an advantage in the polls. 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans have, in fact, assured that a candidate's position on crypto "would have a positive impact on their likelihood of voting for them".
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Who votes for Kamala Harris ? Who votes for Donald Trump ?
Studies conducted on electoral sociology in the US highlight clear divisions between supporters of Kamala Harris and those of Donald Trump. The Pew Research Center, in a study published in September, highlights this:
- Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) to Harris (46%), while the reverse is true for women.
- Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (84%). Narrower majorities of Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) voters also support Harris. A majority white voters (56%) support Trump.
- 53% of voters without a college degree vote for Trump, compared to 44% for Harris, with the Democrat leading the way among voters with four years of college or more (57% vs. 41%).
- Voters under the age of 18 50-year-olds are more likely to vote for Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters 50 and older support Trump over Harris (53% vs. 46%).
© Pew Research Center
When is the 2024 US presidential election ?
Voters are set to go to the polls this Tuesday, November 5, to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will be in the White House for the next 4 years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States, Instead, they will appoint 538 electors, divided according to the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These electors, who also have a political color – between blue for Democrats and red for Republicans – will then elect the President and Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the head of state will take place on January 20, 2025.
How American elections work ?
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the presidential election.