US Election Result, Live: 59% for Trump against Harris, “Chances of Winning” Become Clearer

Follow the results of the 2024 US presidential election live all night long! The first figures are already in, with exit polls, such as the “chances of winning” of Trump or Harris.

The bottom line:

• Trump or Harris ? The first results of the American presidential election are coming in, with the counting in Indiana and Kentucky. The consolidated trends should arrive around 3am if one of the candidates is acclaimed in the Eastern states, or around 6am if the match is close. The final results could be known much later, Thursday or Friday in the event of an uncertain vote.
• The evolution of the results can be followed in the map of the USA, which appears at the top of this article.
• The latest polls gave Kamala Harris around 49% of voting intentions, Donald Trump at 48%. But it is in the 7 Swing States and particularly in Pennsylvania and Michigan that the result of the presidential election is being played out. In the first, the former president is slightly in the lead, credited with 48.5% of voting intentions against 48.1% for his competitor. On the other hand, in Michigan, the Vice President is ahead of the Republican by 0.5 points (48.3% against 47.8%).
• You have to keep these results times in mind: counting begins at 1:00 a.m. in Georgia, 1:30 a.m. in North Carolina, 2:00 a.m. in Pennsylvania, 2:00 a.m. in Michigan. All these states can swing the American presidential election.
• The strongest first figure at this stage is the one that gives the “chances of victory” calculated by the media Decision Desk on a model based on hundreds of simulations, based on exit polls and then on partial results. It gives Donald Trump a 59% probability of winning. This robust model was published in the Harvard Data Science Review. 

  Be careful, but it gives a trend and not a prediction of victory. It shows above all that the election is very uncertain: for example, even 40% is already a high probability. of victory, even if it is lower than that estimated for his opponent.

Live

Kamala Harris wins Vermont, even though the results are partial. Democrat wins 3 electoral votes, but that was highly expected.

Associated Press considers the election in Kentucky and Indiana to be a done deal, even though the results are very partial. These results are not a surprise, in a state that traditionally votes Republican.

The counting has already begun in the states of Kentucky and Indiana, where the polls closed at midnight, French time. The results are evolving in real time, to be found on our map at the top of the article, throughout the night. The data, official though partial, are counted by the AP news agency, and reproduced on our site.

In the Swing States, which will decide the verdict of this election in the USA, the results will arrive in a very delayed manner. Let's take stock in the 7 key States, with details on the arrival of the results in French time:

• North Carolina: Results will be available tonight
• Georgia: Results will be available tonight
• Pennsylvania: Results likely to come in Wednesday morning
• Michigan: Results likely to come in Wednesday morning
• Wisconsin: Results likely to come in Wednesday morning
• Nevada: Results may not be given until Thursday, Friday or Saturday
• Arizona: Results may not be available until Thursday, Friday or Saturday

Find more details in our article dedicated to at the broadcast times in the United States

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05/11/24 – 23:58 – Important election trend: turnout is strong in key states

Some key states are reporting high voter turnout, suggesting that Americans have been listening to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris even called voters during a hotline in Washington on Tuesday to encourage them to go to their polling stations, broadcasting the footage on social media. Trump urged voters to “get off the couch” and go vote. In Michigan, voter turnout appears to be at a record high, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said. At least 3.3 million people cast early ballots, which is expected to break the state's 2020 record of 5.5 million. In Georgia, turnout could exceed 5.15 million voters, which is considerable, and it is also very significant in Pennsylvania.

05/11/24- 23:50 – Philadelphia police surprised by Trump's message that suggests “massive cheating”

“There's a lot of talk about CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law enforcement is coming!!!,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network recently. Philadelphia police officials, contacted by CNN, said law enforcement was not aware of what Trump was referring to. Police also said they had no knowledge of any voting-related issues that required intervention. As CNN pointed out on Tuesday, for years, Donald Trump has been making unfounded claims about electoral fraud in Philadelphia, located in Pennsylvania, one of the key states in this election.

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05/11/24 – 23:12 – According to a spokesperson, Donald Trump is not planning a victory speech before the results

In an interview with NBC News, Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said she did not think the former president would declare victory prematurely. “Donald Trump will be watching the vote count tonight and will address his supporters at the appropriate time,” she said when asked whether she was sure Trump would not announce he had won the election before the results were in. Leavitt added: “I don't think that will happen. I leave it to him to do that and I think he will declare victory and give a speech to his supporters, once again, when the time comes.”

05/11/24 – 22:49 – The first results from Pennsylvania, decisive, expected during the night

Pennsylvania, with its 19 electors, could swing the presidential election in the USA. Four years ago, the election in this state was won by Joe Biden, but by Donald Trump in 2016, and by the Democrats in the previous elections. Pollsters expect a very narrow victory for Trump or Harris, voting intentions were neck and neck a few hours ago. Polling stations close at 2am French time, and the partial count will then be given drop by drop. The results are eagerly awaited, all eyes of the American media are on this state. But the final results could take hours and hours… unless one candidate creates a surprise and takes a considerable lead.

05/11/24 – 22:33 – First results of the American presidential election: Harris wins in Micronesia

Voters in the US island nation of Guam, located in the Pacific Ocean, voted 49.46% for Kamala Harris and 46.22% for Donald Trump, according to several local media outlets. This territory still has 170,000 inhabitants, but no major electorate will cast their vote in December.

05/11/24 – 22:17 – In Georgia, results delayed due to false bomb alerts

Counting votes and giving early indications could take longer than expected in Georgia: as reported by local media, Fulton County in that state is likely to ask a court to extend the hours of voting at some polling places after voting was disrupted by false bomb threats until 7:30 p.m. local time. For the same reasons, two polling places in Fulton County in Cobb, Georgia are allowed to stay open until 7:20 p.m., another in Gwinnett County is asking for an extension until 8 p.m. The time which the results must be legally transmitted is therefore postponed by one hour.

05/11/24 – 21:55 – Florida, a decisive state in this US election ?

Very often in the history of American presidential elections, the vote in Florida has tipped the general election. But this year, all the pollsters and experts in political sociology have integrated the fact that Donald Trump was the overwhelming favorite there. Which has taken Florida out of the “swing states”. The pollsters consider that the state as a whole will vote for Donald Trump and that it is really unlikely that Kamala Harris will win. On the other hand, if she wins more votes than her rival in this state, it is very clear that she will be considered very likely to win the election, given the electoral weight of Florida.

05/11/24 – 21:16 – New figure on the results in Pennsylvania

Before the first results from the counts, here is an estimate based on the latest polls conducted today among voters in the state: according to 270towin, Donald Trump's chances of victory are estimated at 52% at this stage, compared to 48% for Kamala Harris. The candidate who wins this state will have a considerable advantage in accessing the White House.

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The projections made on the basis of the latest polls, broken down state by state, are undoubtedly the most relevant for having a vision of the most probable results of this American presidential election. Here is the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gave this Wednesday, November 5, the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes with the number of electors for Harris and for Trump:

In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, these “Swing states” are the ones that will swing the presidential election, because whoever wins there usually wins nationally. Here are the latest voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to Real Clear Politics:

• If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors, she will be elected president.
• Donald Trump needs 51 electors from these 7 states to win this presidential election.

How American elections work ?

The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.

In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the presidential election.