The campaign for the 2024 US election is picking up pace just a few weeks before the vote. The results of the polls in the US highlight a very divided country: the Harris/Trump duel is not at all a foregone conclusion.
The United States is now living to the rhythm of the campaign of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The two candidates for the 2024 presidential election are now holding meetings, making public statements, and specifying their programmatic proposals. So far, the results of the polls on this American election show that it is one of the most uncertain in history.
According to the very latest studies of voting intentions, the Democratic vice-president collects around 49% of voting intentions against 47% for her opponent nationally. But the poll results are very tight in the few states that will be decisive for this 2024 presidential election, so much so that Donald Trump appears just as likely to win this election as his Democratic rival.
Since Joe Biden's withdrawal, the new Democratic candidate has enjoyed unprecedented popularity among Democrats. Polls show that she is garnering more voting intentions than Joe Biden did. The graph below compiles the largest national polls, in voting intentions, conducted on the American elections.
The American election is actually being played out State by State, each of them giving the candidates a share of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election.
Polls vary easily from day to day, but the trend and momentum are in favor of the Democratic candidate. Here's what the polls are showing in each state at this point. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily on Linternaute.com:
The United States is a very politically divided country, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote Republican, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.
In a small dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to swing their territory to either candidate. These “swing states” are the most targeted by presidential candidates, because whoever wins the election in the major ones usually wins the election. For now, in the 7 most important swing states, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck. Here are the voting intentions in the most important swing states, according to the compilation of Real Clear Politics, on October 18, 2024:
Below, the user offers an infographic measuring the chances of victory of the two candidates in the 2024 American elections. The probability of victory is calculated on a model based on 25,000 daily simulations, carried out by 270towin. The result, which is only an indicator and not a prediction of victory, is based on polls carried out in all American states and on a calculation of the percentage of overall victories for each state. The 270towiun model allows us to establish to what extent a victory in a state allows a candidate to win the final election. For example, a victory in Pennsylvania is necessary in 90.3% of simulations that result in a candidate winning. This estimation is carried out in all the states of the country to arrive at a probability of national scale.
Be careful, the barometer gives a trend, but above all shows that the election is very uncertain. If a candidate only has a 40% chance of winning the election, it must be kept in mind that this is already a high probability of victory, even if it is lower than that estimated for his opponent.
Latest campaign news
"Yes she can" is how Barack Obama gave his support to Kamala Harris, believing that she was "more ready for the job than any presidential candidate ever has". While he has already committed to running solo, he will be with Kamala Harris on October 24 in Georgia.
The former president's wife is not to be outdone. According to information from several American media outlets, relayed by Le Monde, Michelle Obama will officially participate in the Democratic candidate's campaign. The former First Lady should participate in a meeting with Kamala Harris next week. On October 26, she should be in Michigan alongside the Democratic candidate, an important date since it is the day when the early vote will begin in this key state. Three days later, Michelle Obama will be at another rally organized by her NGO When We All Vote in Atlanta, Georgia.
By highlighting the former presidential couple, Kamala Harris's staff is trying to stack the odds in her favor. While Barack Obama has kept of her notoriety, the former First Lady still enjoys a particularly great popularity. It is also a card to play to try to mobilize the Afro-American electorate and to avoid that a part escapes Kamala Harris.
October 18, 2024< /strong>– Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning in Michigan this Friday, which is one of the key states in the race for the White House. Michigan is home to a large number of Arab-Americans. In this state is the city of Dearborn, with the highest density of Arab-Muslim population in America. While traditionally its residents tend to support the Democratic camp, Michigan was won by Joe Biden in 2020, the situation has now changed. following the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
They deplore, in fact, the Biden administration around the issue of war in the Middle East. The latter has given almost unconditional support to Israel. In the same vein, this differentiates Kamala Harris from one of her opponents, Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. Even if she has no chance of winning large voters in this election, the environmentalist could steal votes from the Democratic camp following her position in favor of Palestine. If the state's vote is close, it could swing the scales in Donald Trump's favor.
The latter will also hold a rally this Friday in Detroit, a former stronghold of the automobile industry. According to his campaign team, the line held by Donald Trump in Michigan will be on how “families have been “crushed by inflation, under Kamala's failed leadership.” Both candidates could also run into the “Uncommited”, a movement of voters with a strong presence in Michigan who believe that no candidate deserves their vote.
October 17– According to the New York Times, Elon Musk wrote several checks, totaling $75 million, to support Donald Trump's campaign. The American newspaper relies on data from the American Election Commission (FEC) published earlier this week. The billionaire very specifically donated his money to the committee. political action group “America PAC,” which campaigns for Republicans and funds advertising campaigns or field activities with activists. The Wall Street Journal, which has been closely following Musk's growing ties with the former president in recent months, reports that the “PAC” was created by Musk himself in the spring.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000Elon Musk has become a vocal supporter of Donald Trump this year, convinced that his business could flourish in the Republican's second term but very upset if Democrat Kamala Harris wins. In early October, the Tesla and Space X founder had climbed on the stage of a Donald Trump rally, demonstrating his intention to get involved in his victory and even declaring that he would be ready to govern alongside him. “I want to make America great again. And the values that made America great are meritocracy, work and skills. “We need to change our team, because the Republican Party is the party of meritocracy,” he said recently on X.
The 16 October 2024– Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' campaigns seem to have come to a standstill, as if neither candidate could benefit from any momentum. For a few days now, the polls have not budged. They are all within the margin of error in key states. We are in a plateau phase. There are still a few days left for each candidate to be more and more aggressive. Knowing that we have started voting, including in key states, including Pennsylvania, where “The residents are voting en masse,” explains Marie-Cécile Naves, research director at IRIS, on Wednesday.
For this expert on American political life, we should expect a soap opera with a complex ending, with a situation that will undoubtedly be very tense on election day. “It is very likely that we will not know the result on November 6. The last time, the result was on November 7. There will be disputes if certain states are won or lost at “a few thousand votes close,” explains this researcher, who fears that Donald Trump will not immediately recognize his defeat if he is indeed beaten by Kamala Harris.
October 16, 2024– In Georgia, early voting began this Tuesday, October 15, three weeks before the national election. And it is a record in terms of participation for a first day of early voting: 216,899 ballots were counted at 4 p.m., according to Gabriel Sterling, an election official in Georgia. As a reminder, in 2020, Donald Trump was indicted for attempting to reverse illegally the results of the presidential election in this state.
During the previous presidential election, and after 30 years of Republican voting, Georgia swung to the Democrats by 11,800 votes, or 0.23 percentage points. A vote that, like this year, will be largely determined by the political color of the city of Atlanta. With its suburbs, it represents half of the state's population.
The result of the American presidential election in the state of Georgia appears to be one of the closest of the 7 swing states. And the outcome of the vote in this state is of capital importance: it will allow its winner to win 16 electors, decisive in the race for the White House. For now, Donald Trump enjoys a slight advantage with 48.4% of voting intentions against 47.8% for his Democratic competitor Kamala Harris, according to the compilation by Real Clear Politics, on October 14, 2024.
Linternaute offers from this Tuesday, October 15, coverage of the main highlights of the American campaign. This news feed allows you to follow the key moments before the November 5 election.
October 15, 2024– The French are much less divided than the Americans on this American election: according to a YouGov poll for Linternaute, 55% of the French would prefer Kamala Harris to win this election and become the next president of the United States. Only 19% of them want Donald Trump to win (26% do not have an opinion). It should be noted, however, that the billionaire and former president is clearly more appreciated of the youngest French people (35% of 18-34 year-olds want him to win – almost double the average of those surveyed, 37% want Kamala Harris to lead the country).
Unsurprisingly, it is the supporters of the National Rally who are the most numerous to want Donald Trump to win (29%, compared to 22% in 2020). However, 47% of them want Kamala Harris to be the next president of the United States.
The French, on the other hand, are quite pessimistic about Kamala Harris's ability, if she wins this American election, to weigh in on the resolution of the main armed conflicts. Only 33% of those surveyed think that she would be able to “provide solutions to the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.”
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Studies conducted on electoral sociology in the US highlight clear divisions between supporters of Kamala Harris and those of Donald Trump. The Pew Research Center, in a study published in September, highlights this:
© Pew Research Center
Voters are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election and choose who will serve in the White House for the next four years. However, Americans will not directly elect the president of the United States; instead, they will elect 538 electors based on the number of representatives each state has in Congress. These are the voters, who also have a political color – between blue for Democrats and red for Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025.
Apart from the candidates of the two major American parties, one man has entered the presidential race, confident of his chances. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., nephew of former American president John Fitzgerald Kennedy, is running as an independent candidate. Although he had initially considered participating in the Democratic Party primaries, he ultimately gave up on this possibility. In October 2023, the heir to the famous American dynasty finally ended his campaign to officially support Donald Trump. In the event of a new victory in the presidential election, Donald Trump has also said he is ready to offer the future ex-candidate a position within his administration.
Three other candidates are in the race and are collecting a few crumbs in the voting intentions – which explains why the total between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 100: Cornel West, candidate of the People's Party, an independent political party; Chase Olivier, the candidate of the Libertarian Party; Randall Terry, candidate of the Constitution Party and Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party. All these candidates have no chance of being elected, given the weakness of their support and their financing. But above all, American political life is entirely structured around two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, which provides a framework that ensures both the predominance of two clearly opposed voices and the assurance of a long-term alternation.
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where Citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which are held every four years, citizens vote in early November. The candidate who wins a majority of the votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, gets all of the electors in that state, at except for Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their electors proportionally. The candidate who receives at least 270 electors wins the election.
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