US presidential election: Trump, favourite of Netanyahu and the Israelis

Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will surely bet on a return of the Republican candidate to the White House on November 5, despite the uncertainties weighing on future support from the United States to Israel, experts believe.

During his campaign, the Republican pledged that Israel would “no longer be threatened with destruction”, stating that the unprecedented attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023 in the south of the country, which triggered the war in Gaza, would “never have happened” if he had been in power.

He also encouraged the prime minister to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, advice that Mr. Netanyahu apparently did not follow Saturday during the overnight strikes on Iran.

The return to power of Mr. Trump, a supporter of an isolationist policy, could allow Mr. Netanyahu to wage the wars in Gaza and Lebanon as he sees fit.

Mr Netanyahu “is praying for a victory by Mr Trump, which he thinks will give him much more freedom of movement to do what he wants,” Gidon Rahat, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told AFP.

Political analyst Aviv Bushinsky, a former chief of staff to Mr Netanyahu, believes that the Israeli leader “would be willing to take the risk of Mr Trump's unpredictability.”

More broadly, Mr Netanyahu “has a very good relationship with the Republicans (…), unlike the Democrats, who have made life difficult for him,” explains Mr Bushinsky.

In seventeen years in power, the Israeli prime minister has had only one Republican interlocutor at the White House, Donald Trump.

During his first term, the former president moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan and convinced two Arab countries (Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel.

These decisions boosted Mr. Netanyahu's popularity ratings, as they were so aligned with his policies.

– “Very good relationship” –

Mr. Trump has also recently boasted of his almost daily discussions with Mr. Netanyahu, with whom he claims to have a “very good relationship.” “We're going to work with them very closely,” he said at a campaign rally.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and his wife Sara (R) are welcomed by former U.S. President Donald Trump at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, July 26, 2024 © Israeli Government Press Office – Handout

The Trump administration's unconditional support for Israel has also resonated with the public Israeli.

According to a September poll for the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy (MITVIM), 68 percent of respondents believed that Mr. Trump was best placed to protect the country's interests.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received only 14 percent approval despite her statements of unwavering support for Israel, because she must also count on the votes of the largely pro-Palestinian Arab American community to win.

“In Israel, more than in any liberal democracy outside the United States, Mr. Trump is more popular than Ms. Harris,” said Nadav Tamir, a former diplomat in the United States and a member of Mitvim's board of directors.

But there could be surprises with a new Trump administration, he warns, because the candidate has surrounded himself with “isolationist Republicans who no longer want Washington to lead the free world or participate in international alliances.”

– “No difference” –

The Palestinians are even less enthusiastic about the American election, says Khalil Shikaki, a political science professor in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank.

“It goes without saying that the Palestinians do not trust either candidate and see little difference between them,” says the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Polling Research.

A senior Hamas official, Taher al-Nounou, told AFP that “successive American administrations have always been biased on the Israeli occupation and consider it as part of their project in the region.”

The leader of the Islamist movement also sees “little difference” between the two candidates in their relations with Israel and “their position regarding the Palestinian people, their rights and their resistance.”

His vision is shared by a part of the Palestinian population. “I don't think the US election will have a positive effect on our political reality,” says Leen Bassem, a 21-year-old student at Birzeit University in Ramallah.

Hassan Anwar, a 42-year-old sound engineer, sees “no difference between Harris and Trump, the US policy is very clear on its support for Israel.”

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