US presidential election will have serious consequences for the climate

Photo: Michael Conroy Associated Press Voters line up to cast their early ballots Wednesday in Carmel, Indiana.

Lucie Aubourg – Agence France-Presse in Washington

Published at 8:16

• United States

On climate, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have diametrically opposed views, making the American presidential election a choice between energy transition or climate skepticism, with immense consequences at the global level.

Neither candidate has detailed a complete program on the issue, which is far from being at the center of the campaign in the United States, despite being the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world behind China.

But their positions are no mystery. The former president calls climate change a “hoax,” and has vowed to “drill like crazy” if elected.

His victory would lead to more U.S. greenhouse gas emissions—with a global warming impact—and a U.S. withdrawal from climate diplomacy, potentially slowing the momentum against fossil fuels.

Without even waiting for the inauguration in January, his election would weaken the voice of U.S. negotiators at COP29, which is scheduled to begin six days after the election.

But the commitment of rich countries like the United States will be decisive for increasing financial aid to vulnerable countries, at the heart of discussions this year.

During his term, the Republican withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, and promised to do so again if he is elected, after the cancellation of this decision by his successor Joe Biden.

It is under this agreement that the United States committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, compared to 2005. By 2023, this reduction had reached 18%, according to the Rhodium Group research center.

To get to 50%, “we really need to stay the course,” but “there would be a complete U-turn under Trump,” warns Leah Stokes, a political scientist specializing in climate. “The American election will have repercussions for the entire planet.”

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“Green scam”

Kamala Harris, who attended COP28 where the United States played a key role, is committed to “continuing and developing the United States' international leadership on climate,” according to her campaign website.

As a senator, she supported the “Green New Deal,” a resolution calling for drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions — dubbed the “Green New Scam” by Donald Trump.

In 2019, as a candidate in the Democratic primary, she spoke out in favor of banning hydraulic fracturing, a polluting method of extracting hydrocarbons.

However, she has reversed this position, which was particularly damaging to voters in the key state of Pennsylvania, where the sector is important.

The Democrat makes little reference to the climate on the campaign trail.

During her debate with Donald Trump, she defended the need for “sources diversified energy sources,” going so far as to boast that the country had “experienced the largest increase in national oil production in history.”

A position that has been quietly criticized by some. But all the environmental associations support her, hammering home her record.

They cite her prosecutions of oil companies as attorney general of California. And especially his decisive vote to adopt the “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA), a massive investment law for the energy transition.

This is regularly targeted by Donald Trump, who has declared that he would “cancel all unspent funds”.

But reversing a law is complex, and even some Republican elected officials have spoken out against the idea, emphasizing the usefulness of the tax credits it includes.

Back to the future

Other Trump promises include reversing Joe Biden’s moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, as well as “the electric vehicle mandate.”

A reference to new car emissions regulations aimed at accelerating the shift to electric vehicles—but not mandating them.

Other recent EPA standards, including limits on CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, could be overturned.

But “any effort to repeal these regulations will be met with a lot of litigation,” says Fatima Ahmad of climate consulting firm Boundary Stone.

In addition, “local governments and the private sector will continue to push their commitments to climate,” as “during the first Trump administration,” she told AFP.

But according to an analysis by the specialist media Carbon Brief, a victory for Donald Trump would indeed lead to the additional emission, by 2030, of 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent compared to the Democrats – or the annual emissions of Europe and Japan.