Venezuela at the crossroads

Photo: Chandan Khanna Agence France-Presse People shout slogans during the “Protest for Truth” demonstration organized by the Venezuelan opposition to demand that the Venezuelan government recognize Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia's victory in the presidential elections.

Patrick Fort – Agence France-Presse

Posted at 3:57 PM Updated at 4:16 PM

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“Transition” or “normalization”? Venezuela finds itself at a crossroads after the disputed presidential election of July 28, with an opposition that is trying to put pressure by all means on a government that is seeking to normalize the situation.

“It's like a road that ends in a Y: either we take the autocratic path toward the Cubanization of Venezuela, or we go toward a transition process,” says Benigno Alarcon, a political scientist at the Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB).

The institutional path

President Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner with 52% of the vote by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which did not provide the polling station reports, saying it was the victim of computer hacking. The opposition and many observers are skeptical.

According to the opposition, which made public the electoral documents obtained through its poll workers, its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won the election with more than 60% of the vote.

To have his victory “validated,” Mr. Maduro, who constantly brandishes the little blue book of the Constitution, has appealed to the Supreme Court, whose decisions — as it emphasizes — are “final.” “Any possible ruling [by the Supreme Court] that could validate electoral fraud would be null and void,” said the two opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado and Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia on Wednesday, in a text published on social networks.

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“If they [the opposition] say they have the majority, why didn't they come with their arguments to defend them? This was a space to do so,” says Francisco Gonzalez, a lawyer and academic, convinced that Mr. Maduro won the election despite the erosion of his electorate, the “economic crisis and the sanctions.”

“The transition does not depend on public institutions,” in the hands of the government, believes Alarcon, adding that with the laws on NGOs and social networks, “the government is trying to close all physical and virtual spaces where there could be demonstrations. This is part of this repressive wave.”

Street and international pressure

“We will not abandon the street,” promised opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. While Saturday’s rallies were a success abroad, the protests in Venezuela were not the tidal wave the opposition had hoped for.

“The streets didn’t come out en masse because there’s repression, fear, intimidation,” says Edward Rodriguez, a political consultant for the opposition, who believes the diaspora rallies “make up for” that.

“Nobody wants to die in the street. They are there in an intimidating way. There are the ‘colectivos’ [paramilitaries], the police, the national guards… There is psycho-terror,” says Katiuska Camargo, an activist from the Petaré neighborhood. She says that the government is crisscrossing working-class neighborhoods to intimidate and dissuade people from demonstrating.

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For this reason, both Alarcon and Rodriguez agree that a “double” action is needed, from the streets but also from abroad. The international community must “increase the pressure,” they say. Mr. Rodriguez said that the “wave of immigration [that would result from Mr. Maduro remaining in power] is part of the equation.”

The European Union, the Organization of American States (OAS), Brazil and 22 other countries called in separate statements on Friday for the “minutes” to be published.

Brazil and Colombia have discussed new elections, a proposal rejected by both the government and the opposition. “It doesn't make sense,” Alarcon agrees.

Violence

“Peaceful mobilizations can become violent, either because of people's desperation or because of state repression,” Alarcon fears. “The opposition has no interest in that,” he says, stressing that any violence “would justify repression” by the government.

The announcement of Mr. Maduro's re-election for a third term sparked spontaneous demonstrations that were brutally repressed. According to official sources, 25 people died, 192 were injured and 2,400 arrested.

For Mr. Rodriguez, “this whole violent situation” has led to a “loss” of support from the opposition.

Internal rupture ?

“Countries have made a transition against the institutions,” says Alarcon, recalling that in December 1957, former Venezuelan dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez “decided not to recognize the results of a referendum: a few weeks later, a coup d'état ousted him from power. Anything can happen.”

“It is no use a general wanting to repress if those who should repress do not do so. It matters little that the prosecutor orders arrests if the police or the courts do not do so. “It happens that, under the effect of internal and external pressures, the pyramid ends up splitting horizontally,” he adds.

Negotiations

Mr. Maduro has ruled out any negotiation with the opposition, which he accuses of generating violence and wanting to carry out a “coup d’état.” Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez has said he is “ready for dialogue” while asking Mr. Maduro to “step aside.”

“Maduro is trying to bring the country back to normal, to achieve economic normalization. His technique is attrition. The opposition’s technique is to resist,” believes Edward Rodriguez, for whom this will “lead to a negotiation. […] Maduro raises the level of negotiation, that is, more repression, more intolerance […] He raises the price to reach a moment of negotiation.”

Journalist arrested

A Venezuelan journalist who covered the unrest following President Nicolas Maduro’s contested re-election has been arrested, the press union told AFP on Wednesday.

Ana Carolina Guaita, a journalist for the website La Patilla, a critic of the government, notably covered the overthrow in La Guaira (30 km from Caracas) of the statue of former president Hugo Chavez, mentor of Mr. Maduro.

According to La Patilla, she was arrested on Tuesday by the intelligence services during an “unusual operation.”

“Until now, we have not been able to confirm which detention center she is in” or what she is accused of, said the secretary of the National Union of Press Workers (SNTP), Marco Ruiz.

Ana Carolina Guaita is the daughter of Carlos Guaita, secretary general of the opposition party Copei in La Guaira, and Xiomara Barreto, also a member of this party.

The family fears, according to Mr. Ruiz, that the arrest of the journalist is intended to use her “as a bargaining chip” with her parents, who are outside the country and are wanted by the authorities.

Two photographers, Deisy Peña and Yousner Alvarado, as well as cameraman Paul Leon have been arrested since the July 28 election. Roland Carreño and José Gregorio Camero, professional journalists but more politically engaged, are also detained.

Agence France-Presse