War in Ukraine: How Poland, Sweden and Finland are preparing for the worst

Fortifications, colossal investments, booklets dedicated to the population.. . Due to their proximity With Russia, the Polish, Swedish and Finnish authorities anticipate a potential military escalation.

Vladimir Putin had warned at the end of September that his country could use nuclear weapons in the event of a “massive launch” of air attacks against Russia, even against a non-nuclear country, but supported by a power with atomic weapons. He has now moved up a gear. On Tuesday, November 19, the Russian president signed the decree expanding the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. A decision that comes on the thousandth day of Russia's offensive against Ukraine. It also follows the green light given by the United States to Kiev to be able to strike Russia with its long-range missiles. In this burning context, several countries – due to their proximity to Russia – are already beginning to anticipate the worst and prepare for any eventuality, including a war with Moscow. Poland, Sweden and Finland are particularly concerned.

Poland: a 400 km “eastern shield” planned and the first fighter planes deployed

NATO member country Poland fears an aggression on its territory by Vladimir Putin's army and wants to secure its border with its eastern neighbors. That is why fortifications on the border with Russia and Belarus have begun to be erected. The project: the construction of an “eastern shield” along the border between Poland and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad in northern Poland and with Belarus, Russia's ally. Work began on October 31, 2024, and 400 kilometers of fortifications are expected to be deployed. The work is scheduled to be completed by 2028.

No less than 800 kilometers of ditches will also be dug by Poland to strengthen anti-drone surveillance. Anti-tank fencing, telecommunications systems, video surveillance… The arsenal planned by Poland is colossal. The Polish government plans a heavy investment of 2.35 billion euros to secure its borders and will devote 4% of its GDP to defense. The country is also counting on funding from Europe. “The purpose of the shield is to protect Polish territory, to hinder the mobility of the enemy's troops while facilitating that of our troops and to protect civilians,” Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said in May 2024.

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On Sunday, November 17, 2024, Poland launched fighter jets during a “massive attack” of missiles and drones by the Russian army against Ukraine. It also assures that it has mobilized “all available forces and resources” to protect its country, according to the army.  “Due to a massive attack by the Russian Federation which is carrying out strikes at “With the help of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones against facilities located, among others, in western Ukraine, operations of Polish and allied aircraft in our airspace have begun,” the social network reported Xthe Polish central command. An attack intended to “ensure security in the sectors adjoining the threatened areas,” he added. Close to the front, Poland is not the only country to make its arrangements and to worry about an extension of the war.

Sweden, Finland: a booklet sent to 5 million people and an informative website

In January 2024, the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, had declared that “there could be a war in Sweden”. In a statement, the director of MSB, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency said that the “security situation is serious and we all need to strengthen our resilience in order to be able to face crises, and ultimately war.” Statements that reinforce the idea that military aid to Ukraine is a priority. for Stockholm, as well as taking the threat Russia poses to its own territory very seriously.

In this sense, Sweden began, on Monday, November 18, 2024, sending five million brochures to its residents, inviting them to prepare for a potential conflict. The Swedish booklet – called Om krisen eller kriget kommet (In case of crisis or war) – contains practical recommendations for dealing with war or various natural disasters. Over 32 pages, it describes the threats that weigh on Sweden. Location of fallout shelters, sources of reliable information, choice of foodstuffs, stockpiling… Advice and illustrations also fill this booklet. 5.2 million brochures will be sent to the Swedish population in the next two weeks. Documents also available online and in other languages, such as Ukrainian, Polish, Finnish and Arabic.

It is important to point out that the Swedish booklet never explicitly mentions either Ukraine or Russia. On the other hand, it puts into perspective the increasing military threat weighing on Sweden. The country has not been involved in an armed conflict since the Napoleonic Wars, at the beginning of the 19th century. For its part, Finland – which shares 1,340 kilometers of border with Russia – has created and made available to its citizens a website with many tips for preparing in the event of a crisis. The site has been accessible since Monday, November 18. As a reminder, the two countries – Sweden and Finland – abandoned several decades of military non-alignment and entered NATO after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Respectively in March 2024 for Sweden and one year earlier, in March 2023 for Finland.