Photo: Baz Ratner Associated Press Israeli tanks conduct maneuvers in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon, on October 1.
Sarah Boumedda
Posted at 3:09 p.m.
- Middle East
How the Israeli military operation in Lebanon is structured ? After launching an intensive bombing campaign in the south of this Arab country, the Hebrew state then proceeded with a ground invasion of the territory last week. It is difficult to determine, however, the directives guiding these actions or what happens next, experts believe.
According to Israel, the primary intention behind its military operations — both ground and air — is to weaken Hezbollah, which is present in southern Lebanon. Looking at data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, we can indeed see that the majority of missiles and artillery fire launched by Israel mainly target the south of the neighboring country.
In the interactive map below, we can see in particular a concentration of red dots (representing Israeli strikes) in the governorates of South Lebanon and Nabatieh. It is mainly in these regions that the Israeli army has published evacuation notices for the civilian population. However, we can see a lot of shooting in the suburbs of Beirut, but also in the east of the country.
“Israel claims to be targeting Hezbollah's strategic points,” explains Rex Brynen, a professor in McGill University's Department of Political Science. “Some of them are located in the Bekaa Valley. ; this region also has a large Shiite population,” adds the Middle East expert.
“Hezbollah preserves a good part of military equipment and some parts of its network in eastern Lebanon,” says Nicholas Carl, a researcher at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative American think tank. The Critical Threats Project, which is a partner of ISW , focuses on the study of organizations that the United States considers its enemy.
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An uncertain outcome
For the Israeli army, the priority is “to ensure the return of their civilians to the communities in the north [of its] country”, an area particularly affected by the missile fire of the Hezbollah, Mr. Carl explains. “That’s a clear war objective, coming from Israel.”
The criteria for measuring whether or not this objective is achieved remain rather vague, however. “What we are likely to see is a fairly sustained bombing campaign, where [Israel] will try to hit every target it finds in its path,” analyses Rex Brynen. “But it is difficult to predict what [Israel’s] objective is, ultimately.” It is also difficult to determine what the directives behind the ground incursions are, he adds.
Nicholas Carl also points out that the army does not seem to have given itself any guidelines for the current invasion. “The question that Israeli leaders have to answer is how far they will go before they feel they have accomplished their objectives,” he says.
McGill’s Brynen, however, lists a number of very unlikely scenarios: an alliance with militias, such as the one between the Israeli army and the South Lebanon Army during the Lebanese civil war, is almost impossible to imagine today. Even if Hezbollah is not unanimous among the Lebanese, Israel is still seen as the main aggressor by the vast majority of the population. A direct occupation — or indirect occupation through an alliance — is therefore very unlikely, he says.
Mr. Brynen, however, remains skeptical about Tel Aviv’s long-term motives. “I don’t think the Israeli forces have a plan. I don’t think they have one for Gaza either,” he says.
Destruction “like in Gaza” ?
The damage, however, is already being felt under the intense bombardment. An analysis of satellite imagery by Corey Scher, a doctoral candidate at the City University of New York, and Jamon Van Den Hoek, an associate professor of geography at Oregon State University, shows the extent of the material damage caused on Lebanese territory.
According to the United Nations, more than 2,000 people have been killed by Israeli bombs in Lebanon since September 23. This toll already exceeds that of the last war between the Jewish state and Hezbollah, which lasted a little over a month in 2006. Nearly a million Lebanese have left their homes to flee the strikes in recent weeks, according to Agence France-Presse.
As recently as Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened Lebanon with “destruction and suffering like that which we see in Gaza” if the country did not “free” itself from Hezbollah. The armed group, for its part, said it was “open” to ceasefire efforts promoted by the Lebanese government.
Professor Rex Brynen, however, believes that Hezbollah will not give up anytime soon, as the Gaza Strip continues to be bombarded daily by Israel. “I can't see how Hezbollah, which has demonstrated its support for Gaza for a full year, would suddenly turn around and admit defeat and agree to end its own military operations.”
The conflict, which is currently without a solution, is likely to last “several more months,” he says.