What Could Trump's Foreign Policy Be If He Becomes President Again?

Photo: Press service of the Ukrainian presidency via Agence France-Presse Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York last September.

Magdaline Boutros

Published at 10:20

• United States

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Many fear that Donald Trump will disengage the United States from the international scene if he wins the presidential election on November 5. A withdrawal that could upset the global geopolitical balance as we have known it since the end of the Second World War. Are these concerns really founded? ?

In the 1990s, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright summed up the United States’ preeminent role on the world stage with the concept of an “indispensable nation”—a country at the heart of major global issues. However, Donald Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, standard-bearers of the America First faction of the Republican Party, are speaking out in a way that breaks with this all-out involvement of the United States.

“We are entitled to assume [that they will be] much more isolationist,” summarizes the DevoirAntoine Yoshinaka, professor of political science at the State University of New York at Buffalo. Trump’s protectionist impulses did not, however, prevent him, during his presidency, from carrying out strikes in Syria, Afghanistan and carrying out the targeted assassination of an Iranian general, he recalls.

These are factors — and others — that lead Paul Poast, professor of international relations at the University of Chicago, to say that Donald Trump is not necessarily at odds with the doctrine of the “indispensable nation.” “He simply talks about it in a very different way, by personalizing it,” he analyzes.

According to Professor Poast, Trump is certainly convinced that he can influence world events in a way that no one else can, which echoes Madeleine Albright’s idea. “But Trump is putting it more like he's personally the one solving the problems rather than [his country].”

The Case of Ukraine

On the war in Ukraine, the Republican has made clear “his desire to end the conflict,” Yoshinaka said.

Trump has repeatedly said he would cut off financial and military aid to Zelensky’s country (estimated at about $106 billion so far). If Ukraine were to lose its main ally and donor, it could be forced to negotiate a deal with Russia that would strip it of territory and sovereignty.

But according to Poast, Trump’s position could change. “I think Trump might have a moment like [host Tucker Carlson, who interviewed Vladimir Putin in February], where he's going to realize that maybe he can't get Putin to agree to a deal, because he's completely obsessed with Ukraine.”

Trump tends to do what the last person he saw suggested he do, he points out. By flattering his ego (“Biden didn’t succeed, but you’re stronger, you can stand up to Putin”), European countries could convince him to continue American engagement in Ukraine, Professor Poast believes.

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The war in the Middle East

Trump describes himself as Israel’s greatest ally. His election to the White House would certainly delight Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoshinaka believes. “He wouldn’t have to worry too much about being publicly or privately rebuffed by the American government.”

The Abraham Accords — normalizing relations between some Arab countries and Israel — are among the Republican’s major accomplishments during his presidency, Poast notes. “If Trump wants to continue that process, [one of his prides], Israel cannot continue to conduct the kind of military operations that they’re currently conducting.”

If Trump were to come to power, it is therefore possible that the conflict in the Middle East would decrease in intensity, he analyzes. “Netanyahu could say that he is ready to negotiate a ceasefire now that there is someone in the White House who would favor him more than the current Biden administration.” A ceasefire that would most likely be to Israel’s advantage, adds Paul Poast.

Relations with Iran

There is a consensus between Democrats and Republicans on the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But a disagreement persists on the means to achieve this. While Obama had bet on diplomacy by signing a multi-party agreement with Iran, Trump had adopted a hard line by tearing up the agreement and toughening sanctions against the ayatollahs' regime.

If he is handed the keys to the White House again, “I think Trump will adopt even tougher sanctions against Iran,” predicts Paul Poast.

But Trump being unpredictable, it is also possible that he will restart the diplomatic process to conclude a new agreement with Iran, notes Antoine Yoshinaka. Trump also indicated at the end of September that he was open to negotiating with Iran (“We have to make a deal,” he declared.) “So everything is on the table.”

The China and Taiwan issue

During his presidency, Trump bared his teeth at China, imposing significant tariffs on Chinese goods, which sparked a trade war with the Middle Kingdom. “He’s made tariffs a major part of his foreign policy discussions,” notes Paul Poast. All the signs point to Trump continuing in the same vein if he’s elected on November 5, since he’s already announced that he’ll impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports.

On the subject of Taiwan, the United States has always been a historic ally of the island. If Trump adopts a more isolationist foreign policy, could China seize the opportunity to attack the territory? ? “[If that’s the case], I can imagine Trump saying no, I’m not interested [in getting involved], it’s up to Taiwan to defend itself,” mentions Antoine Yoshinaka. But I can also imagine him waking up one morning and saying to himself that we must do everything to counter China.”

NATO, Canada and the rest

A staunch critic of NATO, Trump has announced that under his leadership, the United States will not come to the defense of NATO member countries that do not spend 2% of their GDP on defense—as is the case for Canada. Under the NATO charter, an attack on one member state is seen as an attack on the entire group, prompting a united response.

Professor Yoshinaka believes that Trump’s threat should be qualified. “It would be surprising if the United States stood by and did nothing if Canada were attacked, since we are talking about [a territory in] North America. But for countries closer to Russia, there are fears.”

Paul Poast also believes Trump would come to Canada’s defense. “If the country were to come under serious attack, particularly from Russia or China, I think Trump’s desire to counter them would outweigh any concerns he might have about Canada.” But if elected, Trump likely won’t miss an opportunity to slam Canada for not reaching the 2% threshold, he adds.